The Ryan Flaherty OPS Projection Thread

[ricowiz]

I am an optimist, however look at his splits from last year. He had three months at that level. He is not likely to be very good against LHP so in order to realize that production a RH option has to be available and productive to allow him to miss a fair share of those guys. I think he has a chance to be a very good player if he is allowed to play to his strengths. BRob coming back might have really hurt the team by breaking RF's stride right when he was getting things rolling. The key is for him to have success early IMO.

I dont know, in 2011 between AA and AAA his combined OPS was .824. The only other time he OPSd over .800 was in A ball back in 2009 and A- ball in 2008.

I just dont see how he could possibly OPS over .800, I mean elite hitters in the league get over that number. Adam Jones had an .811 OPS last season and he is light years a better hitter then Ryan.

Chris Davis' very good 2012 season had him OPSing at .827. No way Ryan is in that league.

[jjdman]

I voted .700 but I think he does a little better then that. I've got him at 85 starts.Twenty five at third, 18 at SS, 18 at first and the rest at second. Don't see him getting much of anything in the outfield. Weeks will get the bulk of the starts at second, not because he is necessarily better then Flaherty, but because Flaherty is better at the other positions then anyone else. Buck is going to need to rest Hardy, Manny and Davis. Flaherty is the best option to fill in for them.

Buck wouldn't give Rip Van Winkle that much rest

[skanar]

My guess was .700 and I took the under.

[isestrex]

I dont know, in 2011 between AA and AAA his combined OPS was .824. The only other time he OPSd over .800 was in A ball back in 2009 and A- ball in 2008.

I just dont see how he could possibly OPS over .800, I mean elite hitters in the league get over that number. Adam Jones had an .811 OPS last season and he is light years a better hitter then Ryan.

Chris Davis' very good 2012 season had him OPSing at .827. No way Ryan is in that league.

I'm not about to label Flaherty as good as Jones but if you look at their Walk rates, K rates and fly ball rates, he's actually not that far behind.

2013        PA  BB% X/H% SO/BB AB/SO LD% HR/FB IF/FBJones      689 3.6%  37%  5.44   4.8 21% 14.2%   12%Flaherty   271 7.0%  38%  3.26   4.0 17% 13.2%   17%

X/H% stands for the percentage of hits that were extra base hits. LD% stands for line drive % and IF/FB stands for the percentage of balls hit in the air that were caught in the infield.

If you look at the particulars, one of the biggest differences between Jones and Flaherty is the pop ups. If he is able to improve upon that this year, and he already walks better than Jones, then .750+ is very attainable while .800+ becomes a modest possibility.

[Flosman]

I dont know, in 2011 between AA and AAA his combined OPS was .824. The only other time he OPSd over .800 was in A ball back in 2009 and A- ball in 2008.

I just dont see how he could possibly OPS over .800, I mean elite hitters in the league get over that number. Adam Jones had an .811 OPS last season and he is light years a better hitter then Ryan.

Chris Davis' very good 2012 season had him OPSing at .827. No way Ryan is in that league.

I am looking at what he has done over the past two years in the Majors. All of his rate stats improved, he has power and last season was willing to take a walk. These improvements where in spite of being absolutely horrible for the first two months of the year. I am going to take the glass half full view and look for him to break out big time this year.

[ricowiz]

I'm not about to label Flaherty as good as Jones but if you look at their Walk rates, K rates and fly ball rates, he's actually not that far behind.

2013        PA  BB% X/H% SO/BB AB/SO LD% HR/FB IF/FBJones      689 3.6%  37%  5.44   4.8 21% 14.2%   12%Flaherty   271 7.0%  38%  3.26   4.0 17% 13.2%   17%

X/H% stands for the percentage of hits that were extra base hits. LD% stands for line drive % and IF/FB stands for the percentage of balls hit in the air that were caught in the infield.

If you look at the particulars, one of the biggest differences between Jones and Flaherty is the pop ups. If he is able to improve upon that this year, and he already walks better than Jones, then .750+ is very attainable while .800+ becomes a modest possibility.

But Jones did that over a full season against LH and RH pitchers. Flahertys sample size is very tiny in a limited role.

[Flosman]

But Jones did that over a full season against LH and RH pitchers. Flahertys sample size is very tiny in a limited role.

I agree playing against LH SP will hurt RF's numbers. He is the LH side of a platoon. We have plenty of ABs to give to that type of guy especially as he can play every infield position well.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I'm not about to label Flaherty as good as Jones but if you look at their Walk rates, K rates and fly ball rates, he's actually not that far behind.

2013        PA  BB% X/H% SO/BB AB/SO LD% HR/FB IF/FBJones      689 3.6%  37%  5.44   4.8 21% 14.2%   12%Flaherty   271 7.0%  38%  3.26   4.0 17% 13.2%   17%

X/H% stands for the percentage of hits that were extra base hits. LD% stands for line drive % and IF/FB stands for the percentage of balls hit in the air that were caught in the infield.

If you look at the particulars, one of the biggest differences between Jones and Flaherty is the pop ups. If he is able to improve upon that this year, and he already walks better than Jones, then .750+ is very attainable while .800+ becomes a modest possibility.

Correct me if I'm wrong, don't these numbers neglect the sheer amount more that Jones puts the ball in the air, resulting in far more hits, relative to Flaherty?

[wildcard]

How about.....I have no flippin' idea. This guy could go from 850 to 500 OPS. He can play great defense, hit 20 homers and still only have a 680 OPS. Or he could improve greatly. I have him at 683 OPS only because that is what he did last year. He is a mystery.

[Frobby]

How about.....I have no flippin' idea. This guy could go from 850 to 500 OPS. He can play great defense, hit 20 homers and still only have a 680 OPS. Or he could improve greatly. I have him at 683 OPS only because that is what he did last year. He is a mystery.

Well said. He could be a very pleasant surprise, or he could be out of the lineup by June. Since he made progress from 2012 to 2013 and is still moving up the learning curve, I'm guessing he cracks the .700 barrier. But I am not too confident.

[isestrex]

Correct me if I'm wrong, don't these numbers neglect the sheer amount more that Jones puts the ball in the air, resulting in far more hits, relative to Flaherty?

GB/FB ratio:

Jones 0.96

Flaherty 0.99

The difference isn't the fly ball rate... it's the type of fly balls being LD's or pop ups that differentiates Jones from Flaherty.

[ricowiz]

Well said. He could be a very pleasant surprise, or he could be out of the lineup by June. Since he made progress from 2012 to 2013 and is still moving up the learning curve, I'm guessing he cracks the .700 barrier. But I am not too confident.

Just curious, what do you mean by moving up the learning curve? He is 27 years old, one year younger then Adam Jones. I hear people say this often about Flaherty but I thought 27 is when you should be peaking?

I guess I dont get all the love for him, if he is as great as everyone is saying he is why did the Cubs not protect him a few seasons ago?

If Ryan Flaherty was a member of the Sox or Yanks, would we be so high on him?

[BohKnowsBmore]

GB/FB ratio:

Jones 0.96

Flaherty 0.99

The difference isn't the fly ball rate... it's the type of fly balls being LD's or pop ups that differentiates Jones from Flaherty.

Ahhh, gotcha. Thanks for the clarification.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Just curious, what do you mean by moving up the learning curve? He is 27 years old, one year younger then Adam Jones. I hear people say this often about Flaherty but I thought 27 is when you should be peaking?

I guess I dont get all the love for him, if he is as great as everyone is saying he is why did the Cubs not protect him a few seasons ago?

If Ryan Flaherty was a member of the Sox or Yanks, would we be so high on him?

I'm not sure anyone is saying he's great. People thinking he can potentially go from a .683 OPS season to the low-to-mid .700s - while being protected (only playing against RHP or something to that effect) - is more of what I'm seeing here. Looked like he was coming on strong last year. And he should be entering his prime shortly, still there is generally an adjustment to the ML game.

[OFFNY]

.

HR's: 17

RBI's: 58

BA: .246

OBP: .324

R's: 58

2B's: 23

3B's: 1

SB's: 3

BB's: 39

SO's: 73

HBP: 7

MVP: N/A

ALL-STAR GAME: No.

GATORADE: Glacier Freeze. Change to Fierce Strawberry after the All-Star break.