The Ryan Flaherty OPS Projection Thread

[Frobby]

Just curious, what do you mean by moving up the learning curve? He is 27 years old, one year younger then Adam Jones. I hear people say this often about Flaherty but I thought 27 is when you should be peaking?

I guess I dont get all the love for him, if he is as great as everyone is saying he is why did the Cubs not protect him a few seasons ago?

I am talking about being exposed to major league pitching. Regardless of age, you have to see major league pitching for a while and learn how to make adjustments. They say for most players it takes 1500 PA to really settle in. Flaherty is under 500 PA. Therefore, he is still on the learning curve despite his relatively advanced age.

And who is saying he is (or will be) "great?" 4 people out of 40 think he'll have an OPS over .724. Either you have a different definition of "great" than I do, or a different definition of "everyone."

[DrungoHazewood]

I think everyone needs to realize that with a minimum of 400 PA's, only 15 second basemen OPS'd over .700.

Would anyone consider Flaherty a top 15 second basemen?

Brandon Phillips OPS was at .706 last season

For Flaherty to have a .750 OPS he would be in company with Zobrist, Kendrick, and Kinsler....

There were only 21 second basemen who played at least 100 games at the position in 2013. The median OPS was about .750. Seven players over .775. Darwin Barney was the only player to appear in at least 100 games at second and didn't OPS .670.

If Flaherty had met that minimum playing time threshold his .683 OPS would have placed him 18th among second basemen in unadjusted offensive output. Once you adjust for park and league (i.e. OPS+) his 83 tied him with Dan Uggla for 20th of 21.

If you loosen up the playing time threshold to 50+ games at second the median OPS+ is 94, and Flaherty ranked 27th of 38 qualifiers.

So... no, I wouldn't consider him a top 15 second basemen. At least not offensively. Maybe he has something of a case if you think he's a plus-plus defender. But even by WAR/game pro-rated to 140 games he's maybe 19th of the 38 guys who played 50 games at second.

[DrungoHazewood]

They say for most players it takes 1500 PA to really settle in... Therefore, he is still on the learning curve despite his relatively advanced age.

But is there any truth to that? Has anyone ever researched that, and done it well to account for aging bias? You can certainly find numerous cases of players who were great almost from their debut-on. And others who were far better in their first 1500 plate appearances than they were afterwards.

Also, you have to assume at some point the decline in physical skills that begins prior to age 27 (for most players) will more than counter any "settling in" effect.

[Frobby]

But is there any truth to that? Has anyone ever researched that, and done it well to account for aging bias? You can certainly find numerous cases of players who were great almost from their debut-on. And others who were far better in their first 1500 plate appearances than they were afterwards.

Also, you have to assume at some point the decline in physical skills that begins prior to age 27 (for most players) will more than counter any "settling in" effect.

Short answer is, I don't know, but I've heard it so often that I assumed some research (at least cursory had been done). Obviously there will be many exceptions to any career pattern you might theorize exists. In any event, 27 is not so old that I'd expect the detriment of physical decline to override the benefits of more experience. As a general rule, I'd bet that players who debut at age 25 are better at age 27 -- with plenty of exceptions.

[Jonesy10]

Flaherty was worth 1.4 WAR in less than half a season worth of PA's last year. If he gets about 400-450 PA's this year (271 last year) and gets his OPS up to .700 or higher, he could easily be worth 2.5-3 WAR. If he can get his OPS higher than that we could have a pretty good 2B... Oh, and last year his WAR/PA was top 10 in the MLB for 2B last year IIRC, although he did come in as a defensive replacement a lot.

[JayThomas]

I am hoping for numbers similar to Hardy's 2013 numbers which are almost dead on Hardy's career numbers:

.260 / .305 / .430 / .735 with 20 HR's.

I'll predict that Flaherty starts 125 games.

[DrungoHazewood]

Flaherty was worth 1.4 WAR in less than half a season worth of PA's last year. If he gets about 400-450 PA's this year (271 last year) and gets his OPS up to .700 or higher, he could easily be worth 2.5-3 WAR. If he can get his OPS higher than that we could have a pretty good 2B... Oh, and last year his WAR/PA was top 10 in the MLB for 2B last year IIRC, although he did come in as a defensive replacement a lot.

You can't linearly scale up his WAR to more playing time knowing that a significant part of his 2013 playing time came in situations advantageous to him (i.e. opposite-handed pitching).

And scaling his 1.0 WAR up to 450 PAs gives you 1.6 WAR. 17 of the 21 second basemen who played 100+ games had at least 1.6 WAR.

[Oldorioles]

If he can be protected against most LH SP I think he puts up a 800+ OPS. with 25+ hrs in around 125 games.

This would truly be amazing. 25+ HRs would be absolutely incredible. In reality Flaherty has never hit over 20 HRs in any season, at any level.

[Oldorioles]

I am an optimist, however look at his splits from last year. He had three months at that level. He is not likely to be very good against LHP so in order to realize that production a RH option has to be available and productive to allow him to miss a fair share of those guys. I think he has a chance to be a very good player if he is allowed to play to his strengths. BRob coming back might have really hurt the team by breaking RF's stride right when he was getting things rolling. The key is for him to have success early IMO.

This is a little misleading, because of such a SSS. In actuality one of these three "months" only saw him play in ten games another was just 13 games. I certainly hope he improves his numbers and has a good year, but even against only righties last year he hit .224 with a 687 OPS. This is subpar any way you slice it. Hope he figures it out. I really hope I'm wrong and your optimism is rewarded.

[Flash- bd]

I'm with Flosman on this one. If Flaherty finally gets the 2B job all to his own he'll surprise some people in a good way. So 750+ for me.

[gpolee]

I voted .700 but I think he does a little better then that. I've got him at 85 starts.Twenty five at third, 18 at SS, 18 at first and the rest at second. Don't see him getting much of anything in the outfield. Weeks will get the bulk of the starts at second, not because he is necessarily better then Flaherty, but because Flaherty is better at the other positions then anyone else. Buck is going to need to rest Hardy, Manny and Davis. Flaherty is the best option to fill in for them.

Did you say 18 games started at 1B!?!

[gpolee]

But is there any truth to that? Has anyone ever researched that, and done it well to account for aging bias? You can certainly find numerous cases of players who were great almost from their debut-on. And others who were far better in their first 1500 plate appearances than they were afterwards.

Also, you have to assume at some point the decline in physical skills that begins prior to age 27 (for most players) will more than counter any "settling in" effect.

Bill James always said the peak years were 28 - 32.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'm with Flosman on this one. If Flaherty finally gets the 2B job all to his own he'll surprise some people in a good way. So 750+ for me.

Not only has Flaherty not had a lot of ML AB's, he's only had 690 total plate appearances in AA and AAA combined. There are numerous reasons for that including injury and his rule 5 status. In contrast, Adam Jones Jones had 1142 Plate appearance at AA/AAA before any significant playing time in the ML. In Jones' first year he put up an OPS+ of 87. Not saying Flaherty is Jones, because he's obviously not, but why don't give the guy a break.

While the advanced age of 27 may be a factor to some degree, I highly doubt it washes Flaherty's potential to improve at this point. That's just silly imo. Flaherty won't be an Allstar. He will platoon and hopefully be productive. In my opinion, he'll need to improve on changeups/splitters, he'll need to adjust his 2 strike approach, and cut down his K's. All things that are very achievable in my opinion. I think he has a good batting eye and his OBP could improve significantly. I'm putting him at a 720 OPS, but 750 wouldn't shock me. I also wouldn't be shocked with a 600 OPS. I just think he has the tools and potential to be a very solid player.

Also, as compared to other starting second baseman it's possible that Flaherty's WAR may have been taken down a notch last year with some playing time at 1b/3B/SS and DH. That may be likely happen this year as well. Also, I'm not convinced Flaherty is going to be a train wreck against LHP down the line (but do prefer platooning him at this point).

[25 Nuggets]

.240/.310/.415 -- .725 OPS, 120 games started... not to mention 20 HRs (one of seven Orioles that will do so).

*knock on wood*

[Frobby]

Poll said: .700-.724

Actual: .644