At the AS Break, O's pitching tied for 4th in AL Team ERA

[waroriole]

So? ERA assumes a line drive off the Green Monster is the same as swinging bunt. It assumes a run in Colorado is equal to a run in PETCO. ERA decides that four consecutive homers after a two-out error didn't happen. ERA says the Orioles' defense is the same as the Astros'. Batting average says that a 450-foot homer and a slow grounder past a diving Jeter are the same thing. Slugging average believes walks and HBP don't exist. Fielding percentage says Brian Downing was better than Paul Blair.

You have to use the tools for their purpose in the right context. You can always find flaws if you expect everything to do everything.

Right, and FIP was improperly used there. It's not a way to determine regression or improvement. My main problem with it is that the way it's presented leads to confusion and misrepresentation. When many guys under or over perform their FIP on a consistent basis, it needs to be reevaluated, IMO.

[Phantom]

Right, and FIP was improperly used there. It's not a way to determine regression or improvement. My main problem with it is that the way it's presented leads to confusion and misrepresentation. When many guys under or over perform their FIP on a consistent basis, it needs to be reevaluated, IMO.

FiP is a good tool, and has some predictive value (much more than ERA, which was being discussed here). The past two seasons, the Orioles have outperformed their FiP, which makes sense given their defense. This year they are waaay outperforming it, which I think will lead to some regression in the second half. Not all the way up to their FiP, but closer to the gap seen in the last two seasons.