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At the AS Break, O's pitching tied for 4th in AL Team ERA


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The bullpen is back to being awesome. Britton, O'Day and Webb are cruising along and now Tommy Hunter has joined them. Brad Brach is pitching well and TJ McFarland is outpitching himself. Only Brian Matusz is really struggling (no I don't really count Preston Guilmet). Altogether they're one of the best pens in baseball.

Also of note, Kevin Gausman is already paying dividends. He's 4-2 in seven starts with a 3.29 ERA and 1.252 WHIP.

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3.84 ERA. 4.32 FIP. 4.19xFIP.

Almost all the stats point towards a potential regression unless our quality of pitching improves.

This is the same thing the advanced metrics said in 2012 and 2013. The O's have consistently outperformed their Fielding-Independent Pitching metric....because their real numbers are not fielding-independent and the O's have a consistently great defense.

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This is the same thing the advanced metrics said in 2012 and 2013. The O's have consistently outperformed their Fielding-Independent Pitching metric....because their real numbers are not fielding-independent and the O's have a consistently great defense.

Absolutely correct. The only way the numbers get worse is if the defense falls off.

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Absolutely correct. The only way the numbers get worse is if the defense falls off.

Imagine if our corner OF defense was better. I don't complain about our OF defense one bit, but I concede it could be better. But it's more than passable as it is, and our corner OFers make up for lack of speed with smart play and good arms.

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Fair point, but the numbers still point to regression:

2013 ERA/FIP/xFIP 4.20/4.33/3.99

2012 ERA/FIP/xFIP 3.90/4.20/4.14

So our FIP is the highest of the three years. I highly doubt our ERA will be the lowest.

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Another tidbit, the Orioles have pulled into a tie for 3rd place in runs allowed per game (4.03) with Kansas City, leaving only the As and Mariners ahead of them. Way ahead of them, but still.

Another fun fact -- the Orioles have the fewest wild pitches in the AL with 23. The White Sox lead the league with 52 wild pitches, more than twice as many.

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Not running the likes of Jake Arrieta and Freddy Garcia every fifth day sure has helped, even with Ubaldo's struggles and Tillman not being 2013 Tillman level. Plus relatively good health, other than fluky stuff with Gonzo and Norris nobody's missed a bunch of starts for anything significant.

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3.84 ERA. 4.32 FIP. 4.19xFIP.

Almost all the stats point towards a potential regression unless our quality of pitching improves.

Wouldn't this really only be true if we didn't have arguably the best defense in the league? That and our pitchers don't strike out a lot of guys. Or am I confused?

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Fair point, but the numbers still point to regression:

2013 ERA/FIP/xFIP 4.20/4.33/3.99

2012 ERA/FIP/xFIP 3.90/4.20/4.14

So our FIP is the highest of the three years. I highly doubt our ERA will be the lowest.

Wrong. FIP points to regression. FIP also assumes a ball hit off the top of the wall and a slow GB back to the mound result from the same pitch quality. Also, the defense isn't factored in.

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Imagine if our corner OF defense was better. I don't complain about our OF defense one bit, but I concede it could be better. But it's more than passable as it is, and our corner OFers make up for lack of speed with smart play and good arms.

From someone who consistently watches other teams play, I can't tell you how spoiled the O's have gotten us defensively. All of our infielders are slick and have excellent arms. Jones and Markakis are gold glovers (even if Nick's range is low) with great arms. Wieters/Joseph are terrific defensively.

Other teams might have a couple good defenders, but not all over the diamond. And this is especially noticeable on the left side of the infield, where I just don't see any other teams with SS/3B combos like Machado/Hardy. These guys are consistent and sensational.

Without looking at any metrics, I think we have the best defense in baseball. I'd assume the numbers rate us well?

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Wouldn't this really only be true if we didn't have arguably the best defense in the league? That and our pitchers don't strike out a lot of guys. Or am I confused?

Well, according to the same stats sight, we have the 9th best defense in the majors (we were thirst last season). So yes, we will outperform our FIP just as we did last year. But expecting our D to cut off half a run seems overly optimistic.

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