Orioles Discussing Four-Year Deal With Nick Markakis (Signs w/ATL)

[Reboulet'sStache]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-are-we-missing-about-nick-markakis/

DRS UZR/150 Defense

2010 -11 -4.8 -12.8

2011 2 -5.2 -12.7

2012 -7 -13.2 -13.6

2013 -7 -5.8 -14.1

2014 1 5.8 -2.5

This should end all talk about a 4 year deal.

That's the thing. If Nick would have just had his normal defensive year last year, he would have been a below 2 WAR player. Players usually have their best season in a contract year. Nick's best got him to right around average. That can't give one much hope going forward.

[Guest]

From Fangraph article:

“contact” and “good contact” aren’t always the same thing, because Markakis’ power has all but disappeared over the years, potentially affected by 2012 surgeries on his right wrist and left thumb as well as to fix a hernia. His batted ball distances have been nothing short of terrifying, really:

Avg. Feet MLB rank

2009 297.91 71

2010 291.23 124

2011 279.86 145

2012 284.07 124

2013 271.22 223

2014 267.92 228

There’s also this: Camden Yards is generally a pretty good place for a lefty hitter to find the stands. Here’s every single Markakis homer over the last three seasons, 37 of them, 23 of which came at home:

(Graphic shows all but one of his home runs were pulled to RF)

If he were to end up in a park that didn’t cater so well to lefties, it’s easy to see that homer total dropping from his usual 10-12 into the single digits. Obviously, this all plays into his total wRC+. An 88 in 2013 was terrible, and a 106 in 2014 was adequate. Combine the two, and he’s tied for 128th in baseball in 2013-14. Among the names ahead of him: Michael Saunders, Chris Johnson and Ike Davis.

Kinda sad his Bat is all but gone for power at the age of 31.

[Can_of_corn]

That's the thing. If Nick would have just had his normal defensive year last year' date=' he would have been a below 2 WAR player. [b']Players usually have their best season in a contract year[/b]. Nick's best got him to right around average. That can't give one much hope going forward.

Is that a provable statement? I don't think that is a provable statement.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Palmer and Bordick praise his defense all the time. They are not biased.They only talk in facts.

And this is why we have all those callers on 105.7 callers so upset. The Baltimore media is a lot different than the brutally honest perspective you would get in say New York. When fans only hear one narrative about Markakis, they start to believe it. (That's not to say that one couldn't, even with a more balanced narrative, still not view Markakis as being essential to bring back.)

[Reboulet'sStache]

Is that a provable statement? I don't think that is a provable statement.

Probably not. But either are the intangibles that others are throwing around, so it all balances out.

[Guest]

And this is why we have all those callers on 105.7 callers so upset. The Baltimore media is a lot different than the brutally honest perspective you would get in say New York. When fans only hear one narrative about Markakis' date=' they start to believe it. (That's not to say that one couldn't, even with a more balanced narrative, still not view Markakis as being essential to bring back.)[/quote']

Bingo!

[O's84]

Markakis catches everything he can get to and for the most part has a strong and accurate arm. The problem is his speed doesn't let him cover much ground.

[Can_of_corn]

Probably not. But either are the intangibles that others are throwing around' date=' so it all balances out.[/quote']

I would like less entropy added to the system please.

[AlbionHero]

And this is why we have all those callers on 105.7 callers so upset. The Baltimore media is a lot different than the brutally honest perspective you would get in say New York. When fans only hear one narrative about Markakis' date=' they start to believe it. (That's not to say that one couldn't, even with a more balanced narrative, still not view Markakis as being essential to bring back.)[/quote']

How did Markakis get a reputation of being such an amazing fielder anyway? He's never been stellar according to the metrics... he has a plus arm but you need a lot more than a good arm to be a great fielder.

All I ever hear is how great of a fielder he is from the non advanced metrics crowd, and I've never understood it.

[mdbdotcom]

Given that expectations for Markakis have diminished significantly since his last contract, it may be more accurate to say that the odds of re-signing him are less than 40-40.

[Can_of_corn]

How did Markakis get a reputation of being such an amazing fielder anyway? He's never been stellar according to the metrics... he has a plus arm but you need a lot more than a good arm to be a great fielder.

All I ever hear is how great of a fielder he is from the non advanced metrics crowd, and I've never understood it.

High assists + low errors = plus fielder.

[mdbdotcom]

High assists + low errors = plus fielder.

Like Jason Bay, but without the power.

[Morgan423]

How did Markakis get a reputation of being such an amazing fielder anyway? He's never been stellar according to the metrics... he has a plus arm but you need a lot more than a good arm to be a great fielder.

All I ever hear is how great of a fielder he is from the non advanced metrics crowd, and I've never understood it.

What you're talking about is less about accessing Markakis and more about the validity of current defensive metrics. Quite a few see current defensive metrics as not being worth much at all in judging where a player is at in terms of defensive skill on the field.

[Can_of_corn]

What you're talking about is less about accessing Markakis and more about the validity of current defensive metrics. Quite a few see current defensive metrics as not being worth much at all in judging where a player is at in terms of defensive skill on the field.

But the eye test confirms he is slow and doesn't cover much ground.

[21xxxv]

I think the Morse comments are a smoke screen. The team likes Nick, but not at 4/48. I think 3/30, with an option is what he is worth!