Orioles Discussing Four-Year Deal With Nick Markakis (Signs w/ATL)

[clapdiddy]

I'm very confident a Pearce and Lough platoon in right would be better than Nick Markakis.

We've been on the same page with this for quite a while now. The positions I would like to upgrade would be LF and DH.

[Frobby]

But you also wouldn't expect any upside' date=' right? If Nick is going to go one way or another, it's going to be down. He's not going to spike to some 3 WAR player at any point. At best what you're saying is you would expect Nick to be able to maintain his 2.3ish WAR production?[/quote']

I don't "expect" any upside, though I'd hardly say that he's incapable of putting up a 3 WAR season. It's a volatile sport. Heck, Steve Pearce just put up a 6 WAR season that came out of nowhere. But over 4 years I'd peg Nick at 6-10 WAR, with the highest probability coming in the 7-8 range. That probably makes me a biased optimist compared to most posters.

[AlbionHero]

I don't "expect" any upside, though I'd hardly say that he's incapable of putting up a 3 WAR season. It's a volatile sport. Heck, Steve Pearce just put up a 6 WAR season that came out of nowhere. But over 4 years I'd peg Nick at 6-10 WAR, with the highest probability coming in the 7-8 range. That probably makes me a biased optimist compared to most posters.

So if he comes up with about 7-8 WAR over 4 years, that would pretty much make him a league average player. Would you be okay with paying 45-50 million dollars for a league average starting RF over the next 4 years?

And that's probably the best case scenario IMO, since to me he seems like a guy in decline and could start seeing replacement level seasons by the last couple years.

[El Gordo]

My guess is the came close to a deal at around 4/40 M, but the Angelos boys balked. They either made a three year offer, or the 4/34 that we've also heard. At which point Nick's agent said pardon us while we check out his market value. Not likely any one offers 4 years IMO, but the AAV on a 3 year deal could be a lot higher than the O's offer. I agree with Frobby that his decline if any won't be precipitous.

[webbrick2010]

If you look at the fangraphs chart of how precipitously his flyball distance is dropping it's not hard to imagine that Nick drops below .700 OPS this year and for the rest of his career.

He is like an old guy in a slow pitch softball year. Still makes great contact but lacks the power (bat speed) to hit ball past/by the defenders.

We've already seen the last couple seasons that LF'ers play him extremely shallow to cut off all the bloop hits to LF that he used to get. They no longer have to protect the power alley because Nick can't put anything into either power alley.

[25 Nuggets]

If you look at the fangraphs chart of how precipitously his flyball distance is dropping it's not hard to imagine that Nick drops below .700 OPS this year and for the rest of his career.

He is like an old guy in a slow pitch softball year. Still makes great contact but lacks the power (bat speed) to hit ball past/by the defenders.

We've already seen the last couple seasons that LF'ers play him extremely shallow to cut off all the bloop hits to LF that he used to get. They no longer have to protect the power alley because Nick can't put anything into either power alley.

Good analysis on why he will decline. And in a roundabout way, why numbers were so skewed through the steroid era.

[Going Underground]

I can't think of one reason to believe that Nick will not decline like most other players between the ages on 31-34.

So De Aza who turns 31 in April will also decline? Nick and De Aza are only seven months apart in age.

[Frobby]

So if he comes up with about 7-8 WAR over 4 years, that would pretty much make him a league average player. Would you be okay with paying 45-50 million dollars for a league average starting RF over the next 4 years?

And that's probably the best case scenario IMO, since to me he seems like a guy in decline and could start seeing replacement level seasons by the last couple years.

I need to segregate here my views as an amateur analyst, and my views as a fan. As an analyst, I'd feel pretty comfortable with 4/$40 mm, borderline uncomfortable at 4/$44 mm, and I'd feel 4/$48 mm was an overpay. As a fan, I'd be happy Nick was staying with the team almost no matter what we paid him. He's my favorite player and I really don't want to see him in another uniform.

[Can_of_corn]

Good analysis on why he will decline. And in a roundabout way, why numbers were so skewed through the steroid era.

You mean because of the rabbit ball they were using right?

[mdbdotcom]

So De Aza who turns 31 in April will also decline? Nick and De Aza are only seven months apart in age.

Last I heard, the O's were not considering giving De Aza a four-year deal. They shouldn't. And they shouldn't give Nick one, either.

[AlbionHero]

So De Aza who turns 31 in April will also decline? Nick and De Aza are only seven months apart in age.

I'm sure he will.

The difference is we only have him signed for one year instead of having to commit to him for 4 years.

[Going Underground]

I'm sure he will.

The difference is we only have him signed for one year instead of having to commit to him for 4 years.

I agree. Just think we have to upgrade the DH and outfield with players better then Lough,De Aza.

[Guest]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-are-we-missing-about-nick-markakis/

DRS UZR/150 Defense

2010 -11 -4.8 -12.8

2011 2 -5.2 -12.7

2012 -7 -13.2 -13.6

2013 -7 -5.8 -14.1

2014 1 5.8 -2.5

This should end all talk about a 4 year deal.

[Going Underground]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-are-we-missing-about-nick-markakis/

DRS UZR/150 Defense

2010 -11 -4.8 -12.8

2011 2 -5.2 -12.7

2012 -7 -13.2 -13.6

2013 -7 -5.8 -14.1

2014 1 5.8 -2.5

This should end all talk about a 4 year deal.

Palmer and Bordick praise his defense all the time. They are not biased.They only talk in facts.

[Tony-OH]

From Fangraph article:

“contact” and “good contact” aren’t always the same thing, because Markakis’ power has all but disappeared over the years, potentially affected by 2012 surgeries on his right wrist and left thumb as well as to fix a hernia. His batted ball distances have been nothing short of terrifying, really:

Avg. Feet MLB rank

2009 297.91 71

2010 291.23 124

2011 279.86 145

2012 284.07 124

2013 271.22 223

2014 267.92 228

There’s also this: Camden Yards is generally a pretty good place for a lefty hitter to find the stands. Here’s every single Markakis homer over the last three seasons, 37 of them, 23 of which came at home:

(Graphic shows all but one of his home runs were pulled to RF)

If he were to end up in a park that didn’t cater so well to lefties, it’s easy to see that homer total dropping from his usual 10-12 into the single digits. Obviously, this all plays into his total wRC+. An 88 in 2013 was terrible, and a 106 in 2014 was adequate. Combine the two, and he’s tied for 128th in baseball in 2013-14. Among the names ahead of him: Michael Saunders, Chris Johnson and Ike Davis.