Orioles Discussing Four-Year Deal With Nick Markakis (Signs w/ATL)

[AlbionHero]

But the eye test confirms he is slow and doesn't cover much ground.

This is kind of a problem with watching games on TV. Its tough to see what kind of read a guy gets on the ball and how much ground he can cover... but seeing him live, I am thoroughly unimpressed, especially in recent years. While he doesn't look confused out there like some OFs, he just doesn't have the speed to make the tougher catches. And even when he does make them, he needs to dive and turn it into a "great play", when it would be routine for others.

[mdbdotcom]

This is kind of a problem with watching games on TV. Its tough to see what kind of read a guy gets on the ball and how much ground he can cover... but seeing him live, I am thoroughly unimpressed, especially in recent years. While he doesn't look confused out there like some OFs, he just doesn't have the speed to make the tougher catches. And even when he does make them, he needs to dive and turn it into a "great play", when it would be routine for others.

His lack of speed is even more apparent on the bases. They finally stopped sending him home on what should have been close plays after he was thrown out by a mile a couple of times.

[Frobby]

High assists + low errors = plus fielder.

In addition to those attributes, there are a number of things Nick does extremely well. For one, he almost never bobbles a bouncing ball. He almost never throws to the wrong base. He plays ricochets off the wall extremely well, both at OPACY and on the road. He's decisive and has a quick release on his throws. He plays balls that are right at the wall very well, times his jumps well. Honestly, his lack of foot speed is his only significant flaw as a fielder. But he does catch whatever he can reach, even if he has to dive or slide to make the catch.

Usually, the play that make Nick look the worst is when a ball is hit sharply into the RF corner and he has to run over there to chase it down. That seemingly takes forever.

[Rene88]

I'd prefer a 3-year deal, but the 4th year isn't a big deal to me if the salary is reasonable. I really don't think Nick will have a precipitous decline from here. However, the most notable point in the fangraphs article was the data on how far Nick hits the ball, and the pretty serious drop after his injuries in 2012. That drop may be permanent, and if so, probably limits any upside.

What is a reasonable salary to you?

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[Rene88]

I think the Morse comments are a smoke screen. The team likes Nick, but not at 4/48. I think 3/30, with an option is what he is worth!

That sounds in line to what my thoughts are.

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[Can_of_corn]

In addition to those attributes, there are a number of things Nick does extremely well. For one, he almost never bobbles a bouncing ball. He almost never throws to the wrong base. He plays ricochets off the wall extremely well, both at OPACY and on the road. He's decisive and has a quick release on his throws. He plays balls that are right at the wall very well, times his jumps well. Honestly, his lack of foot speed is his only significant flaw as a fielder. But he does catch whatever he can reach, even if he has to dive or slide to make the catch.

Usually, the play that make Nick look the worst is when a ball is hit sharply into the RF corner and he has to run over there to chase it down. That seemingly takes forever.

"Brevity is the soul of wit."

[ShaneDawg85]

In addition to those attributes, there are a number of things Nick does extremely well. For one, he almost never bobbles a bouncing ball. He almost never throws to the wrong base. He plays ricochets off the wall extremely well, both at OPACY and on the road. He's decisive and has a quick release on his throws. He plays balls that are right at the wall very well, times his jumps well. Honestly, his lack of foot speed is his only significant flaw as a fielder. But he does catch whatever he can reach, even if he has to dive or slide to make the catch.

Usually, the play that make Nick look the worst is when a ball is hit sharply into the RF corner and he has to run over there to chase it down. That seemingly takes forever.

He's pretty much a fundamentally sound fielder. He does pretty much all of the little things right, maybe not spectacularly but he gets the job done. He just doesn't have a lot of range, but I wonder how much that really matters in a park like Camden Yards. As you said, the only time I think that matters is when he has to chase balls down the line and into the corner. He knows how to play the goofy dimensions of right field here better than anyone. That said if he does choose to leave he better go to a place where he won't have to cover more ground in right. A park like Atlanta he'd have to do it.

[CA-ORIOLE]

He's pretty much a fundamentally sound fielder. He does pretty much all of the little things right, maybe not spectacularly but he gets the job done. He just doesn't have a lot of range, but I wonder how much that really matters in a park like Camden Yards. As you said, the only time I think that matters is when he has to chase balls down the line and into the corner. He knows how to play the goofy dimensions of right field here better than anyone. That said if he does choose to leave he better go to a place where he won't have to cover more ground in right. A park like Atlanta he'd have to do it.

Doesn't seem to show up in the numbers. One reason so many balls are going down that line is that he consistently shades far and deep into right CF. Years ago when we had split data he was actually worse in OPACY than on the road while other defenders (from visiting teams) showed no adverse park effects from OPACY.

[Number5]

Doesn't seem to show up in the numbers. One reason so many balls are going down that line is that he consistently shades far and deep into right CF. Years ago when we had split data he was actually worse in OPACY than on the road while other defenders (from visiting teams) showed no adverse park effects from OPACY.

Hmmm... my recollection is quite different. As I recall, all outfielders, Orioles and visitors alike, showed markedly worse at OPACY. I even remember threads about it here where we were trying to figure out what, exactly, about OPACY was causing that effect. Could be my old brain is having memory issues here, though. Do you have the numbers handy?

[CA-ORIOLE]

From Fangraph article:

?contact? and ?good contact? aren?t always the same thing, because Markakis? power has all but disappeared over the years, potentially affected by 2012 surgeries on his right wrist and left thumb as well as to fix a hernia. His batted ball distances have been nothing short of terrifying, really:

Avg. Feet MLB rank

2009 297.91 71

2010 291.23 124

2011 279.86 145

2012 284.07 124

2013 271.22 223

2014 267.92 228

There?s also this: Camden Yards is generally a pretty good place for a lefty hitter to find the stands. Here?s every single Markakis homer over the last three seasons, 37 of them, 23 of which came at home:

(Graphic shows all but one of his home runs were pulled to RF)

If he were to end up in a park that didn?t cater so well to lefties, it?s easy to see that homer total dropping from his usual 10-12 into the single digits. Obviously, this all plays into his total wRC+. An 88 in 2013 was terrible, and a 106 in 2014 was adequate. Combine the two, and he?s tied for 128th in baseball in 2013-14. Among the names ahead of him: Michael Saunders, Chris Johnson and Ike Davis.

Pretty good analysis here. Along with the fielding metrics/issues I think it paints a pretty dire outlook on Nick going forward. He used to drive balls in the gaps, even to the opposite field, but even last year (which was far better than 2013) they seamed to just die out there and flame out. When he gets a HR now it's basically pulled with nearly everything he's got in what apparently is a favorable environment. Whether that's after effects from the injuries and/or age or a combination of a lot of things, I don't know.

Funny thing is I think he may have been in top condition last year and even with more favorable fielding metrics he still squeezed by with 2 WAR. While I do think he'd probably perform better with more rest at this point in his career (and maybe he'll get that in Atalanta) I really can't see much chance of Nick putting up a 3 WAR season going forward.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Hmmm... my recollection is quite different. As I recall, all outfielders, Orioles and visitors alike, showed markedly worse at OPACY. I even remember threads about it here where we were trying to figure out what, exactly, about OPACY was causing that effect. Could be my old brain is having memory issues here, though. Do you have the numbers handy?

No, I don't remember it that way. El Gordo proposed the question to Bill James and one of the inputs back from James was that visiting fielders showed no adverse effects from OPACY. Data on how individual visiting fielders performed at OPACY was never published. James had the data internally and disclosed it.

[Can_of_corn]

No, I don't remember it that way. El Gordo proposed the question to Bill James and one of the inputs back from James was that visiting fielders showed no adverse effects from OPACY.

I recall Nick and Adam both having odd home/road splits.

I don't recall data about specific visiting players.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I recall Nick and Adam both having odd home/road splits.

I don't recall data about specific visiting players.

Adam's were far less severe. The information about how visiting players performed in OPACY was disclosed by Bill James based on the question from El Gordo and in dialogue with Tom Tango i believe.

[waroriole]

Adam's were far less severe. The information about how visiting players performed in OPACY was disclosed by Bill James based on the question from El Gordo and in dialogue with Tom Tango i believe.

Maybe we're thinking of different chats, but I recall a nonsensical answer from someone that was suspected to be an intern of Bill James. I don't remember anything about visiting players having no ill effects.

[xian4]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en-gb"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SFGiants?src=hash">#SFGiants</a> are currently in discussions with free agent outfielder Nick Markakis, source confirms earlier report by <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS">@JonHeymanCBS</a>.</p>— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) <a href="

">December 3, 2014</a></blockquote>

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