Lineup w/ Rasmus if everyone's healthy?

[Roll Tide]

There is no way Alvarez makes the team and then is only used as part time. If he is a legit prospect he needs to play all the time at AAA or at MLB..

I agree with this ....Alvarez will be treated much like Schoop if he breaks with the team. It's a good move for the player and the team and I doubt Buck would do anything to hurt the kid.

And personally I think Alvarez makes the jump based on the moves so far. If he can be a .300 hitter that he has shown so far that's a plus for the lineup.

My main concern with Alvarez is the low OBP. The plus is that he doesn't strike out much either.

[Mayor McCheese]

Rasmus will be a everyday player for us.

to Rasmus.

[Just Regular]

As far as I can tell Rasmus was in the AL East last season and didn't do so well v LHP. Has it really changed that much?

When I think of ALE opponent pitching skewing right next year, it's mostly Price and Lester being gone.

Last year there were only four LHP Rasmus had more than 3 PA against. He was 1-for-5 against Price, 1-for-3 against Chen, and 3-for6 against Capuano (though I disbelieve the Yankees will start him much next year). SSS-interestingly, he also drew walks against all three of those pitchers.

The fourth, Andrew Miller. 0-for-5 with 4 strikeouts, naturally.

[PaulFolk]

The short side platoon partner gets 4 starts a month.

Not quite that few. It varies from month to month. Last year the O's only faced 4 left-handed starters in April, but most months it was more than that. The full breakdown:

April: 4

May: 9

June: 11

July: 5

August: 9

September: 3

Postseason: 2

[stomperspc]

Rasmus has had an OPS of .684 and .712 the past two seasons versus LHP. I did a search for left handed batters over the past two seasons who had 150 PA's versus LHP in either season and sorted by OPS. I choose 150 PA's because that felt enough PA's where we can conclude that the player was not being platooned and was more or less playing every day. Its not a perfect method as evidenced by the fact that Rasmus didn't meet the mark in either season. However, that was because he missed time in 2013 and was benched in 2014, so he didn't have a full season worth of PA's in either year. In 2013, 28.9% of his PA's came versus LHP. In 2014, he was used a little more selectively perhaps and got 26.4% of his PA's versus LHP. By comparison, Nick Markakis had 28.4% of his 2014 PA's versus LHP and he played everyday, so Rasmus is not too far off that mark.

Anyway, there are 72 seasons between 2013 and 2014 that fit the above criteria. If Rasmus had played 150+ games in either season (instead of 118 and 104, respectively) to accumulate enough PA's versus LHP, his 2013 and 2014 OPS vs. LHP would have placed him 37th and 42nd, respectively, out of 72. That's right around the mid-point, probably a tad below. Again, that's not a perfect way to analyze whether or not Rasmus needs to be platooned, but it least tells us that there are many players who aren't being platooned or fair worse (much worse in some cases) versus LHP than Rasmus. FWIW, Nick's 2013 and 2014 OPS versus LHP was lower than Rasmus and we know he played every day. Jayson Heyward had a .477 OPS over 159 PA's last season against LHP and I doubt the Cardinals will platoon him right away.

Also, De Aza's .816 OPS from 2013 was 13th best during this time period.

I am not necessarily arguing that ideally it wouldn't be nice to have a RHB to platoon with De Aza or Rasmus, only that it is not entirely necessary. Rasmus and/or De Aza should be able to handle LHP well enough next season not to necessitate carrying a potentially worse all-around player than David Lough just to get another right handed bat on the roster. I'd rather keep Lough in case of injuries and if/when other guys under perform. If Pearce and/or Young revert back to being lefty killers and not much else, Lough would allow for both of those guys to sit versus RHP on occasion or all of the time.

[backwardsk]

Not quite that few. It varies from month to month. Last year the O's only faced 4 left-handed starters in April, but most months it was more than that. The full breakdown:

April: 4

May: 9

June: 11

July: 5

August: 9

September: 3

Postseason: 2

This is great info. Thanks for sharing. Where did you find it? I looked on bbref (mobile) and didn't have success.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Yardball85]

That sounds about right to me. There would be tweaking of the 4-5-6 if Davis can't get back on track, Pearce regresses significantly, or Wieters fails; in the last instance, maybe he goes down to 7 and Hardy moves up to 6.

Ya, I think RZ's post (as usual) is directly on point. Pearce to a corner outfield spot and Young at DH when we face a tough lefty (or any lefty perhaps). Lough serves as a PR, defensive replacement, and occassional starter if there is an injury. If he is dealt, perhaps Hassan gets his spot.

Flaherty and Joseph round out the bench.

[terps19]

Versus RHP

1. De Aza LF

2. Pearce DH

3. Jones CF

4. Davis 1B

5. Machado 3B

6. Wieters C

7. Hardy SS

8. Rasmus RF

9. Schoop 2B

Versus LHP

1. Pearce LF

2. Hardy SS

3. Jones CF

4. Young DH

5. Machado 3B

6. Wieters C

7. Davis 1B

8. Alvarez RF

9. Schoop 2B

I believe that both Rasmus and De Aza absolutely need to be platooned, so I have Daniel Alvarez as our fifth OF and the right handed half of the platoon with Rasmus. Lough is traded or sent to AAA to start the season. I actually really like the lineup against LHP. Those top six will tattoo left handed pitching and then you got some power on the back end.

Pearce a leadoff hitter? And we complained about the lack of speed Nick had. I have vision of Pearce trying to stretch a single into a double (that most regular leadoff hitters would have made it to second) being thrown out by a mile...

[wildcard]

Not quite that few. It varies from month to month. Last year the O's only faced 4 left-handed starters in April, but most months it was more than that. The full breakdown:

April: 4

May: 9

June: 11

July: 5

August: 9

September: 3

Postseason: 2

That is 41 regular season games vs lefties. That is 25% of the season. That is about normal.

[Il BuonO]

Pearce is faster than Markakis. No contest.

Yes, I had a similar vision the other day of him in the lead off spot. Best OBP on the team and no doubt he has better speed than Nick does. Somehow I don't feel Buck puts him there because of the power though.

[Babypowder]

Pearce a leadoff hitter? And we complained about the lack of speed Nick had. I have vision of Pearce trying to stretch a single into a double (that most regular leadoff hitters would have made it to second) being thrown out by a mile...

Pearce is not slow, not at all.

[Ven6]

Rasmus has had an OPS of .684 and .712 the past two seasons versus LHP. I did a search for left handed batters over the past two seasons who had 150 PA's versus LHP in either season and sorted by OPS. I choose 150 PA's because that felt enough PA's where we can conclude that the player was not being platooned and was more or less playing every day. Its not a perfect method as evidenced by the fact that Rasmus didn't meet the mark in either season. However, that was because he missed time in 2013 and was benched in 2014, so he didn't have a full season worth of PA's in either year. In 2013, 28.9% of his PA's came versus LHP. In 2014, he was used a little more selectively perhaps and got 26.4% of his PA's versus LHP. By comparison, Nick Markakis had 28.4% of his 2014 PA's versus LHP and he played everyday, so Rasmus is not too far off that mark.

Anyway, there are 72 seasons between 2013 and 2014 that fit the above criteria. If Rasmus had played 150+ games in either season (instead of 118 and 104, respectively) to accumulate enough PA's versus LHP, his 2013 and 2014 OPS vs. LHP would have placed him 37th and 42nd, respectively, out of 72. That's right around the mid-point, probably a tad below. Again, that's not a perfect way to analyze whether or not Rasmus needs to be platooned, but it least tells us that there are many players who aren't being platooned or fair worse (much worse in some cases) versus LHP than Rasmus. FWIW, Nick's 2013 and 2014 OPS versus LHP was lower than Rasmus and we know he played every day. Jayson Heyward had a .477 OPS over 159 PA's last season against LHP and I doubt the Cardinals will platoon him right away.

Also, De Aza's .816 OPS from 2013 was 13th best during this time period.

I am not necessarily arguing that ideally it wouldn't be nice to have a RHB to platoon with De Aza or Rasmus, only that it is not entirely necessary. Rasmus and/or De Aza should be able to handle LHP well enough next season not to necessitate carrying a potentially worse all-around player than David Lough just to get another right handed bat on the roster. I'd rather keep Lough in case of injuries and if/when other guys under perform. If Pearce and/or Young revert back to being lefty killers and not much else, Lough would allow for both of those guys to sit versus RHP on occasion or all of the time.

Bravo. Thanks for all the work. Sorta old-school OH analysis I appreciate.

[Three Run Homer]

De Aza hit .138 with an OPS of .400 in 95 at bats against LHP in 2014. And the few at bats that I saw of him against LHP last year suggest that these numbers were not a fluke--he looked helpless. Regardless of what he hit against LHP in previous years, it seems likely that LHP found a hole in his swing and exploited it last season. Maybe he can adjust back, but the prudent course of action would be to assume that he needs a platoon partner.

Rasmus isn't as helpless as De Aza, but all else equal, it still seems to me that our fourth outfielder should be someone who can play good defense and hit right handed. Justin Ruggiano would have been a good fit and the Mariners didn't have to give up much to get him from the Cubs; maybe someone else like him is out there.

[AdamK]

Pearce a leadoff hitter? And we complained about the lack of speed Nick had. I have vision of Pearce trying to stretch a single into a double (that most regular leadoff hitters would have made it to second) being thrown out by a mile...

Pearce is faster than Markakis. No contest.

Yeah but... like... look at him.

[emoji16]

(You guys remember the: "Pearce doesn't look like a ball player" dust up of 2014, right?)

[wildcard]

I would disagree with that statement. He certainly did not look helpless to me against LHP's while an Oriole last September. Anyone know where to get his splits vs. LHP's only while he was a Baltimore Oriole last year?

I agree, and have already said, that an extra outfielder who hits RH is probably a better fit than Lough. We do have Young and Pearce. I think De Aza and Rasmus will play everyday unless they prove they shouldn't.

While with the Orioles, De Aza had 12 plate appearances against LHP. He had 4 hits, including 1 double and 1 triple with one walk and 3 strikeouts good for a 1.053 OPS. Small sample size for sure but I have a hard time understanding how anyone who saw those, thinks he looked helpless. I didn't know the stats but they do back up what I remembered seeing of him as an Oriole last year.

De Aza was 4 for 11 vs lefties with the O's.

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=bal#playerType=ALL&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&game_type='R'&season=2014&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'&sectionType=sp&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1420232338458&timeframe=&last_x_days=&split=vl