Jump to content

Davis thinks his poor performance was due to an injury

wildcard

By wildcard
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 143
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
Closer, but what MLB player is going to maintain a .315 average with a sub-100 ISO? MAYBE a profile like a Ben Revere?

Average shouldn't be the foundational stat in trying to determine a player's value, but dismissing it outright is silly. It's a great stat in tandem with any number of other statistics and can give a really good idea as to how productive a player is offensively (either as a catalyst or run producer).

Again, it isn't a standalone determinative stat, I completely agree. But as a general rule you want players that hit for a high average. And if you don't have a player that hits for a high average the profile requires additional value via expanded skill set (e.g. ability to hit for above-average power).

I was exaggerating for effect.

I guess I shouldn't expect folks to pick up on that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

Posted
Posted
I was exaggerating for effect.

I guess I shouldn't expect folks to pick up on that.

All depends. If it's batting around someone with a lesser understanding of more advanced statistical analysis I don't think it matters who picks up on what. If it's an earnest attempt to win over a mind, probably not a great approach.

Anyway, I get worn down by the anti-BA rants online, particularly because the numbers show that BA tiers can give a pretty good insight into profile types that work and don't work, as well as profile types we tend to see and profile types that are significant outliers. Pretty useful in projecting out amateur talent and prospects and a nice way to anchor expectations when trying to figure out what to expect from players in the future.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
All depends. If it's batting around someone with a lesser understanding of more advanced statistical analysis I don't think it matters who picks up on what. If it's an earnest attempt to win over a mind, probably not a great approach.

Anyway, I get worn down by the anti-BA rants online, particularly because the numbers show that BA tiers can give a pretty good insight into profile types that work and don't work, as well as profile types we tend to see and profile types that are significant outliers. Pretty useful in projecting out amateur talent and prospects and a nice way to anchor expectations when trying to figure out what to expect from players in the future.

How many folks that don't have an advanced understanding are actually open to broadening their horizons?

I think the number is very small.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

Posted
Posted
One guy who came pretty close was Richie Ashburn. .308 BA, .382 SLG for his career.

Good call! And we're talking about a much different game at that point. Ashburn's .074 ISO was the 35th worst of qualifying players over the cumulative span of his career ('48-'62). It would have been the fifth worst ISO of qualifying players in 2014. Of qualifying players with a sub-100 ISO in 2014, only Ben Revere batted over .300. Adam Eaton did as well, with an ISO of 101. That type of player profile just doesn't exist in today's game, and isn't really relevant to any discussion as to comparative merits of profiles at present.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
Good call! And we're talking about a much different game at that point. Ashburn's .074 ISO was the 35th worst of qualifying players over the cumulative span of his career ('48-'62). It would have been the fifth worst ISO of qualifying players in 2014. Of qualifying players with a sub-100 ISO in 2014, only Ben Revere batted over .300. Adam Eaton did as well, with an ISO of 101. That type of player profile just doesn't exist in today's game, and isn't really relevant to any discussion as to comparative merits of profiles at present.

Interesting. League average ISO now is not that different from when Ashburn played. But maybe the spread between the top hitters and poor hitters is a lot different?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

Posted
Posted
Interesting. League average ISO now is not that different from when Ashburn played. But maybe the spread between the top hitters and poor hitters is a lot different?

Slightly bigger spread and more even distribution. Would have to actually look into it but guess is that there was more room for a wider variety of profile types and broader range of talent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
canonfaz All-Star

canonfaz

Posted
Posted
Back to Davis. I'm encouraged that he says the injury affected his ability to drive the ball to LF because that's exactly what was missing from his game last year.

I tend to agree, but he had 127 batted balls to LF (zones 1-6) in 2014, compared to 85 in 2013 (in fewer PA's). The difference isn't as pronounced as I thought it would be though.

2014: 085 batted balls to LF in 525 PA's; 16.2% of the time

2013: 127 batted balls to LF in 673 PA's; 18.9% of the time

<script type='text/javascript' src='http://public.tableausoftware.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'></script><div class='tableauPlaceholder' style='width: 1304px; height: 695px;'><noscript><a href='http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/introducing-the-interactive-spray-chart-tool/'><img alt=' ' src='http://publicrevizit.tableausoftware.com/static/images/BP/BP5WKRXFF/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class='tableauViz' width='1304' height='695' style='display:none;'><param name='host_url' value='http%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableausoftware.com%2F' /> <param name='path' value='shared/BP5WKRXFF' /> <param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='http://publicrevizit.tableausoftware.com/static/images/BP/BP5WKRXFF/1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /><param name='showVizHome' value='no' /></object></div><div style='width:1304px;height:22px;padding:0px 10px 0px 0px;color:black;font:normal 8pt verdana,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;'><div style='float:right; padding-right:8px;'><a href='http://www.tableausoftware.com/public/about-tableau-products?ref=http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/BP5WKRXFF' target='_blank'>Learn About Tableau</a></div></div>

Link to comment
Share on other sites
justD Hangout Grand Counsel

justD

Posted
Posted
I tend to agree, but he had 127 batted balls to LF (zones 1-6) in 2014, compared to 85 in 2013 (in fewer PA's). The difference isn't as pronounced as I thought it would be though.

2014: 085 batted balls to LF in 525 PA's; 16.2% of the time

2013: 127 batted balls to LF in 673 PA's; 18.9% of the time

I think the really telling stat from this site, with respect to driving the ball, is Avg Distance.

I tried looking at the past four seasons for that LF set of zones (1-6) that you mention. Check it out:

2011 -- Avg Distance 241.0 ft

2012 -- Avg Distance 232.6 ft

2013 -- Avg Distance 237.3 ft

2014 -- Avg Distance 214.7 ft

I can post screenshots, or you can go and try it out for yourselves:

canonfz site

Link to comment
Share on other sites
canonfaz All-Star

canonfaz

Posted
Posted
I think the really telling stat from this site, with respect to driving the ball, is Avg Distance.

I tried looking at the past four seasons for that LF set of zones (1-6) that you mention. Check it out:

2011 -- Avg Distance 241.0 ft

2012 -- Avg Distance 232.6 ft

2013 -- Avg Distance 237.3 ft

2014 -- Avg Distance 214.7 ft

I can post screenshots, or you can go and try it out for yourselves:

Definitely a telling stat. I would think a strained oblique could cause you not to drive the ball as far as you previously had.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MdSooner Hangout Grand Counsel

MdSooner

Posted
Posted
Nope, I am trying to enlighten.

If you look you will find examples of that same story using Musial and Hornsby.

I first heard it as Musial 30 years ago.

And I first heard the story 40 years ago using Ted Williams.

So in all honesty it probably applies to all of them

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • Grt 2BA FL Gator
      Playoff closer

      By Grt 2BA FL Gator · Posted

      I would be OK with this and it’s what Hyde was doing with Kimbrel in a way too. We’ve got guys that can match up, let’s try to take advantage. 
    • accinfo
      Back to back 90 or more win seasons

      By accinfo · Posted

      A 90 win season with Grayson missing at least 10 starts, Means and Bradish missing at least 20 each.  Throw in Tyler Wells missing most of the season and other injuries I think this team and its management has done well.  If just a little more healthy they could have had back to back 100 win seasons.  I am glad we have Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde leading this team.  
    • LookitsPuck
      Can Cowser still win Rookie of The Year over Gil/Wells ?

      By LookitsPuck · Posted

      Some interesting things of note from https://www.samford.edu/sports-analytics/fans/2023/Sabermetrics-101-Understanding-the-Calculation-of-WAR. I pulled out the relevant areas: Fangraphs allocates 570 WAR for position players and 430 WAR for pitchers, while Baseball-Reference allocates 590 WAR for position players and 410 WAR for pitchers The major difference between fWAR and bWAR comes from the measurement of fielding runs, which is the defensive output a player provides. Fangraphs uses a statistic called Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), while Baseball-Reference uses a statistics called Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). The differences in these stats can lead to drastically different calculations in WAR for some position players. UZR takes into account 3 years of players’ data as well as MLB data to determine these percentages, whereas DRS uses essentially 1 year of data. Therefore, some rookies will have drastically different UZR and DRS stats. As opposed to positional players, Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference take drastically different steps in calculating the WAR of pitchers. It does not follow the formula for position players but does try to calculate the “wins” that a pitcher gives to their team. Instead, they use a “base” statistic to help calculate WAR. Fangraphs uses FIP, or fielding independent pitching, as its base for calculating pitchers' WAR, whereas Baseball-Reference focuses on Runs Allowed per 9 innings (RA9) for its base I think the main takeaway for Gil, bWAR likes him more than FanGraphs probably because FG aims to take the defensive element out of the calculation by centering on FIP. And if we look at FIP, his is close to 4. But Baseball Reference is using RA9 which does have a defensive element inherently calculated. As for Cowser, I reckon FG likes him more than BBRef particularly on the defensive metric side of things. Maybe BBRef is harsher on the DRS side than FG is on the UZR side. To me, I like FG for pitchers far more than BBRef. For position players, I’d give the nod to FG but mainly because I think DRS can have some wide swings where UZR has a tendency to be more centered.
    • spleen1015
      Burnes named Game 1 ALWC starter

      By spleen1015 · Posted

      Win game 1, Kremer/Suarez game 2, win game 2, Eflin game 1 ALDS? Win game 1, Kremer/Suraez game 2, lose game 2, Eflin game 3? Lose game 1, Eflin game 2?
    • NedFromYork
      Can Cowser still win Rookie of The Year over Gil/Wells ?

      By NedFromYork · Posted

      I think extra international slot money.
    • oriolediehard
      Back to back 90 or more win seasons

      By oriolediehard · Posted

      Great Oriole years!!
    • Frobby
      Climbing the list of most O’s wins in two consecutive seasons

      By Frobby · Posted

      The win tonight in game 161 allowed the 2023-24 Orioles to reach 191 wins, tied with the 1964-65 and 1965-66 teams for the 7th most wins in consecutive seasons.  With a win tomorrow, they could move up to a tie for 5th. Tonight’s win also gave the O’s 275 wins over the last 3 seasons, tied for 11th with the 1975-77 and 1976-78 O’s.  They could move into a tie for 10th with a win tomorrow.  

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...