The save opportunities haven't been there

[Frobby]

2012: 73 save opportunities (45.1% of games played) -- 1st in AL

2013: 84 save opportunities (51.9% of games played) -- 1st in AL

2014: 72 save opportunities (44.4% of games played) -- 1st in AL

2015: 16 save opportunities (38.1% of games played) -- 10th in AL

In the past, we've always had a lot of narrow leads to protect late in ballgames. Those really haven't been there this year. The team is doing a good job of protecting leads when they have them (81.25% save rate, compared to 70.92 league average).

[Brooks The Great]

I'd be interested to see how many save opportunities came in July, August and September last year compared to the earlier months. I'd expect our save opportunity rate to jump in the second half of the season because the team will be playing drastically better baseball, just like the team played much better in the second half last year and in 2012. Especially considering how weak the East is.

[Redskins Rick]

i remember some said that JJ wasn't that good as a closer, just got lucky with lots of opportunities.

[Can_of_corn]

i remember some said that JJ wasn't that good as a closer, just got lucky with lots of opportunities.

Buck is trying hard to get Britton as many shots as he can.

#2RunSaveRule

[Redskins Rick]

Buck is trying hard to get Britton as many shots as he can.

#2RunSaveRule

Is this really the reason?

Or maybe, he trusts the guy, when the game is on the line?

[Ohfan67]

Is this really the reason?

Or maybe, he trusts the guy, when the game is on the line?

Don't be ridiculous! Buck is a slave to the save rule! He's not trying to win games, he's just being formulaic.

[DrungoHazewood]

When the team chemistry is really flowing the offense just "feels" what it needs to make sure every 9th inning is a 1-to-3 run lead.

[Can_of_corn]

Is this really the reason?

Or maybe, he trusts the guy, when the game is on the line?

Don't be ridiculous! Buck is a slave to the save rule! He's not trying to win games, he's just being formulaic.

Right, when they gave up a run a couple days ago in the 9th and Buck immediately ran Britton out there it was because he was honestly terrified that the other team could score 3 runs before making an out.

I think we have more then enough data on Buck to show that he has a pretty clear tendency to run his closer out there in as many save situations as he can.

[Redskins Rick]

Right, when they gave up a run a couple days ago in the 9th and Buck immediately ran Britton out there it was because he was honestly terrified that the other team could score 3 runs before making an out.

I think we have more then enough data on Buck to show that he has a pretty clear tendency to run his closer out there in as many save situations as he can.

Most managers do this and I know, you are all about closer by committee, but, its not going to happen.

I also believe we saw Britton in a non save situation, he was already warmed and when he sits too much, doesn't it affect his stuff?

[DrungoHazewood]

I know, you are all about closer by committee, but, its not going to happen.

I'd be good with just modifying the role to 0-2 run lead instead of 1-3. Or even -1 to +2 if they can handle the workload. I understand you have to have some rule-of-thumb kind of guidance to manage workload and limit excessive warmups. 1-to-3 run lead seems less than optimal because teams win about 97% of the time they have a 3-run lead going to the 9th. You're using your CEO to negotiate corporate insurance policies. He could be better using his time.

[Redskins Rick]

I'd be good with just modifying the role to 0-2 run lead instead of 1-3. Or even -1 to +2 if they can handle the workload. I understand you have to have some rule-of-thumb kind of guidance to manage workload and limit excessive warmups. 1-to-3 run lead seems less than optimal because teams win about 97% of the time they have a 3-run lead going to the 9th. You're using your CEO to negotiate corporate insurance policies. He could be better using his time.

So, if you change the rule now, what about the previous save metrics collected from the save run initiation?

[El Gordo]

I'd be good with just modifying the role to 0-2 run lead instead of 1-3. Or even -1 to +2 if they can handle the workload. I understand you have to have some rule-of-thumb kind of guidance to manage workload and limit excessive warmups. 1-to-3 run lead seems less than optimal because teams win about 97% of the time they have a 3-run lead going to the 9th. You're using your CEO to negotiate corporate insurance policies. He could be better using his time.

I think this would work if we had someone who was as effective as Britton to share the time with, but the only one I would consider is O'Day and I think Buck likes to have him free to be a fire man. Also there seems to be a Psychological factor. A lot of CL seem to struggle when used in non save situations

[DrungoHazewood]

So, if you change the rule now, what about the previous save metrics collected from the save run initiation?

I didn't say anything about changing the rule. I said they should change usage patterns for the closer. But if changed the rule you certainly could go back and re-figure all of the old save totals retroactively. But I don't know how you'd award a save to a pitcher who comes into a tie game, because as it stands now he'd be ineligible since he'd get the win. Might as well leave the win/save rules alone since mostly they're ignored anyway.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think this would work if we had someone who was as effective as Britton to share the time with, but the only one I would consider is O'Day and I think Buck likes to have him free to be a fire man. Also there seems to be a Psychological factor. A lot of CL seem to struggle when used in non save situations

I think substituting tie games for 3-run leads could:

1) Invigorate closers, convincing them they're more important because they need to hold the lead to win it instead of coasting with a 3-run lead.

2) Over-tax the closer because he rarely gets a truly easy appearance.

3) Make the closer a little ticked off because someone else now gets his easy saves.

[Frobby]

I'd be interested to see how many save opportunities came in July, August and September last year compared to the earlier months. I'd expect our save opportunity rate to jump in the second half of the season because the team will be playing drastically better baseball, just like the team played much better in the second half last year and in 2012. Especially considering how weak the East is.

Last year, at the end of May (when the O's were 27-27), they'd already had 25 save opportunities. By month last year:

April - 9 in 24 games

May - 16 in 30 games

June - 9 in 28 games

July - 16 in 25 games

August - 11 in 28 games

September - 11 in 27 games