Drum beat a little louder for Cubs deal

[crawjo]

I don't mind having Marquis and Trachsel in the rotation to start the year. One or both of them will bomb out or get hurt, and then the Orioles can see which of the young guys is playing well in Norfolk and bring them up. I suspect with the nature of our rotation right now that whatever is decided on heading into Opening Day will not last very long. Olson, Alberts and Liz will be poised to move up before long.

But unless I'm missing something, if Roberts is traded and we don't get a second baseman back, who starts at second? Moore? Mora, with Moore moving to third?

[ugadawg38]

From what I was told this could be happening very soon....

Would love a reason why this is true

It wont happen....

[ugadawg38]

Why are we so impressed by Cedeno and Patterson? I can't find any stats on them that make you think they are going to be anything but average backup infielders. They don't even have any speed to talk about.

Way back when.....November I believe I mentioned including Ryan Theriot SS in the deal for Roberts along with Gallagher, Veal and Ceda and with Payton included we will probably also get Marquis with the Cubs eating some of his salary. I don't really care if we get a fifth player back if they just take Payton's contract. AM cares so a fifth player will be added.

The Cubs want Theriot and Roberts up the middle to give them 75+ steals and good defense up the middle. Theriot fits the bill of a younger shortstop (28) with a pretty good bat and 28 steals last year. We need to get speed back if we trade Roberts and we already passed on resigning Corey Patterson so we are losing a lot of speed. The Cubs can go out and trade for Wilson or Uribe to take Theriot's space. They can probably get Uribe for Murton in a crosstown trade. I don't want a couple of mediocre infielders with a little potential. Theriot can play SS and leadoff and will only cost you $390,000. You might say why would the Cubs trade Theriot who is similar to Roberts? Roberts has more power, hits for a higher average is faster and is a switch hitter. If Cedeno and Patterson are so great let the Cubs keep them and prove to everyone how good they are. They are both overrated. Who is the Adam Jones or Luke Scott in this deal. We have to get a future star player back that is major league ready in a Roberts deal. Gallagher, Veal and Ceda are still prospects. Theriot has ML experience and Marquis does if he is included.

We can then go back to the Astros and get Loretta to play second for a year or two until we develop a young 2B. Loretta was not in the lineup today as the Astros beat the Dodgers in their last game at Dodgertown (Vero Beach). If successful getting Theriot we could flip him to the Padres in a package for Khalil Greene. Yes! I know he just signed a 2 year contract but Towers has said he is only there short term because he wants to return to the East (from PA). It was also mentioned in the article on MSN that the Orioles are believed to be coming to Vero Beach next year as we have been hearing for quite awhile now.

WOW!!! I have never seen in all my years Luke Scott is the equivalent of Adam Jones... Out of respect for the board i will hold back but i think based on your baseball knowledge i could get the following trade

(me Daniel Cabrera)

(you Chase Utley)

Who is the Erik Bedard in this deal?????????

I really believe you are the stupidest baseball fan i have ever seen here..Have fun being the next Cubs.....

Fair trade = Gallagher, Cedeno, GInger Veal

I want a pitcher that can compete somewhere other than norfolk..... Patterson might be better than Roberts

My Oriole prediction 58-104.... (Loewen 2-8 4.6 ERA, 1.6 WHIP)

[Jimbo81]

Would love a reason why this is true

It wont happen....

In my experience take anything bigbird says with a grain of salt;)

...because he says so...

[ugadawg38]

In my experience take anything bigbird says with a grain of salt;)

...because he says so...

i hope you are correct and he is also

but i dont think it is true....

[Jimbo81]

i hope you are correct and he is also

but i dont think it is true....

Yeah I'm almost HIV positive this deal won't happen.

Here's to me wishing:p

[clarence]

AM knows what he wants and the rest of us spending countless hours studying Warp numbers and the like means nothing to him. I can totally see the value of Marquis. If the money he costs this season saves us one year of service time on a legitimate pitcher then it is money well spent. We aren't trying to win anything this season but the first pick in the next draft so why not send Marquis to the mound every fifth day.

SG, you have been one of the biggest advocates on this board about rebuilding, but you constantly want us to waste service time on our young pitchers this season. You also talk about us needing a young mif right now. Building a rotation that can win at Norfolk does have some positives. Players that learn how to win are better off for the experience. I spent a lot of years in minor league sports and I know this to be true. Also, how would it make sense for us to trade a young pitcher at this time for a mif, when we don't know what we have in the pitcher? It makes no sense. We wait and see what we can acquire a year from now.

[Intimidator301]

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I don't think Cedeno should be a main piece for Roberts. Cedeno will most likely be the odd man out, and will probably be cut anyhow. At this point, I don't think Cedeno is worth more then Payton + cash. Not because the potential isn't there for Cedeno, but the Cubs either have to keep him, or lose him. And they seem to have a glut of IFers. So, IMO I think the deal should be

O's get: Gallagher, Patterson, Murton, Veal, Cedeno

Cubs get: Roberts, Payton + cash

Adding Murton and Patterson atleast makes up a little for losing Roberts and makes the bench stronger, because any given day you have atleast one of Millar/Huff on the bench.

1. Patterson 2b

2. Mora 3b

3. Markakis rf

4. Millar/Huff 1b

5. Scott lf/dh

6. Hernandez c

7. Jones cf

8. Murton dh/lf

9. Cedeno ss

Bench: Millar/Huff, Quiroz, Redman, LH/Fahey

With the money you saved by trading Roberts, just cut Gibbons. Even if we throw in half of Paytons salary, we still come out in the plus, and at worst break even.

[wildcard]

Why are we so impressed by Cedeno and Patterson? I can't find any stats on them that make you think they are going to be anything but average backup infielders. They don't even have any speed to talk about.

Way back when.....November I believe I mentioned including Ryan Theriot SS in the deal for Roberts along with Gallagher, Veal and Ceda and with Payton included we will probably also get Marquis with the Cubs eating some of his salary. I don't really care if we get a fifth player back if they just take Payton's contract. AM cares so a fifth player will be added.

The Cubs want Theriot and Roberts up the middle to give them 75+ steals and good defense up the middle. Theriot fits the bill of a younger shortstop (28) with a pretty good bat and 28 steals last year. We need to get speed back if we trade Roberts and we already passed on resigning Corey Patterson so we are losing a lot of speed. The Cubs can go out and trade for Wilson or Uribe to take Theriot's space. They can probably get Uribe for Murton in a crosstown trade. I don't want a couple of mediocre infielders with a little potential. Theriot can play SS and leadoff and will only cost you $390,000. You might say why would the Cubs trade Theriot who is similar to Roberts? Roberts has more power, hits for a higher average is faster and is a switch hitter. If Cedeno and Patterson are so great let the Cubs keep them and prove to everyone how good they are. They are both overrated. Who is the Adam Jones or Luke Scott in this deal. We have to get a future star player back that is major league ready in a Roberts deal. Gallagher, Veal and Ceda are still prospects. Theriot has ML experience and Marquis does if he is included.

We can then go back to the Astros and get Loretta to play second for a year or two until we develop a young 2B. Loretta was not in the lineup today as the Astros beat the Dodgers in their last game at Dodgertown (Vero Beach). If successful getting Theriot we could flip him to the Padres in a package for Khalil Greene. Yes! I know he just signed a 2 year contract but Towers has said he is only there short term because he wants to return to the East (from PA). It was also mentioned in the article on MSN that the Orioles are believed to be coming to Vero Beach next year as we have been hearing for quite awhile now.

The only reason that the Cubs are giving up a quantity of young players with potential (Gallagher, Veal, Ceda) is that the O's are not asking for starting players like Theriot in the trade. Adding Theriot probably chances the whole trade. Then it become Roberts for Theriot and Veal or Ceda. I don't think that he were McPhail is going.

No one is says that Cedeno is great. He is the 4th or 5th player in the deal because he has the potential to be better then LH and Fahey not because he is the clear long term answer to anything.

McPhail appears to be trading Roberts for the biggest quantity of the highest potential young players he can get. Gallagher, Veal and Ceda appear to fit that description. Cedeno is a throw-in young player with a huge risk of failure and some questionable potential. I think MacPhail gets one more young player from the low minors in the deal just for more quantity.

The Payton for Dempster or (Marquis and cash) deal stands on its own value despite being done at the same time.

[wildcard]

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I don't think Cedeno should be a main piece for Roberts. Cedeno will most likely be the odd man out, and will probably be cut anyhow. At this point, I don't think Cedeno is worth more then Payton + cash. Not because the potential isn't there for Cedeno, but the Cubs either have to keep him, or lose him. And they seem to have a glut of IFers. So, IMO I think the deal should be

O's get: Gallagher, Patterson, Murton, Veal, Cedeno

Cubs get: Roberts, Payton + cash

Adding Murton and Patterson atleast makes up a little for losing Roberts and makes the bench stronger, because any given day you have atleast one of Millar/Huff on the bench.

1. Patterson 2b

2. Mora 3b

3. Markakis rf

4. Millar/Huff 1b

5. Scott lf/dh

6. Hernandez c

7. Jones cf

8. Murton dh/lf

9. Cedeno ss

Bench: Millar/Huff, Quiroz, Redman, LH/Fahey

With the money you saved by trading Roberts, just cut Gibbons. Even if we throw in half of Paytons salary, we still come out in the plus, and at worst break even.

A few points:

1) I believe MacPhail to be frugal. He is not sending cash to any team for any player. If I am right sending cash with Payton is not an option.

2) I think MacPhail has made the judgement that Veal and Ceda have higher potential ceilings then Murton and Patterson. Whether that is right or wrong can be debated, but that appears to be what is happening IMO.

3) Murton and Patterson are more near term players then Veal and Ceda. Though this is true it does not appear to be a major criteria for MacPhail. MacPhail is going for the highest potential instead of the near term gain. Murton could help the O's in 2008. MacPhail does not seem to care. He apparently values Ceda higher.

4) I doubt that the Cubs will give Gallagher, Veal, Ceda, (all players that MacPhail seem to value) Cedeno and Murton or Patterson in the same same deal. Is too much for the Cubs to give up. If the O's get a fifth player for Roberts it will be a low level minor leaguer IMO not Patterson or Murton who the Cubs value more.

5) The Payton trade stands on its own merit IMO. It will happen or not happen depending on the availability of Dempster or (Marquis and cash) that is offered by the Cubs. The Cubs have been evaluating how both pitchers fit into their rotation. When that evaluation is done and the Cubs will determine whether Payton is a better fit for the money then other options like Crisp and Byrd. Then the trade will be completed. It appears that the Cubs do not want either Dempster or Marquis in their pen. That gives the O's an edge over Byrd who will cost Murton. Murton may be valued as a bench player by the Cubs.

[Intimidator301]

A few points

5) The Payton trade stands on it own merit IMO. It will happen or not happen depending on the availability of Dempster or (Marquis and the cash) that is offered by the Cubs. The Cubs have been evaluating how both pitchers fit into their rotation. When that evaluation is done and the Cubs will determine whether Payton is a better fit for the money then other options like Crisp and Byrd. Then the trade will be completed. It appears that the Cubs do not want either Dempster or Marquis in their pen. That gives the O's an edge over Byrd who will cost Murton. Murton may be valued as a bench player by the Cubs.

I thought I read somewhere, maybe on here, that the Rangers wanted Murton and Marshall for Byrd. If that's the case, say the Cubs go 4-1 for Roberts. Lets say its Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal, Ceda for example, then they give up Murton and Marshall for Byrd? That's 6-2 for Roberts and Byrd. I don't see that happening.

With the Angels needing pitching, if I'm the Cubs, I'd just look into seeing if the Angels would be interested in a DeRosa and Marquis for Figgins and Rivera deal. Figgins can spell Pie some in Cf and play 2b and 3rd, and lead off and is just as much of a sb threat as Roberts. And Rivera is the RH bat in the OF they want.

Then they can use Murton and the rest for a SP at the deadline if needed. Phil Rogers said today on ESPN 1300 that if a deal goes down, this is the week to do it. He also said he's not too optimistic a deal gets done at all.

[fire83]

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I don't think Cedeno should be a main piece for Roberts. Cedeno will most likely be the odd man out, and will probably be cut anyhow. At this point, I don't think Cedeno is worth more then Payton + cash. Not because the potential isn't there for Cedeno, but the Cubs either have to keep him, or lose him. And they seem to have a glut of IFers. So, IMO I think the deal should be

O's get: Gallagher, Patterson, Murton, Veal, Cedeno

Cubs get: Roberts, Payton + cash

Adding Murton and Patterson atleast makes up a little for losing Roberts and makes the bench stronger, because any given day you have atleast one of Millar/Huff on the bench.

1. Patterson 2b

2. Mora 3b

3. Markakis rf

4. Millar/Huff 1b

5. Scott lf/dh

6. Hernandez c

7. Jones cf

8. Murton dh/lf

9. Cedeno ss

Bench: Millar/Huff, Quiroz, Redman, LH/Fahey

With the money you saved by trading Roberts, just cut Gibbons. Even if we throw in half of Paytons salary, we still come out in the plus, and at worst break even.

I understand this is the O's board and I expect to hear things a little one sided. To be honest I got tired of hearing how stupid the Cubs would be if they got rid of Cedeno and Gallagher for Roberts on the Cubs board. That is why I am hear reading what the O's fans have to say. However, giving up those 5 guys for Roberts and then taking Payton off of AM's hands also, is not a fair deal for the Cubs. If the Cubs are going to take Payton IMO Marquis will be in the deal.

IMO it will be Gallagher, Veal, and 2 of Cedeno/Patterson/Ceda for Roberts. Marquis and Payton can be added if both teams agree. That doesn't matter to me either way.

[Dipper9]

I want to rebuild. I want to get younger. I want to get better. That said, the Cubs are NOT a good fit to trade Roberts to. I'd keep Roberts, hope he has a typical Roberts first half, and trade him at the deadline or when somebody's 2nd baseman gets hurt. The holdup in the Bedard deal was filling in the 4th and 5th pieces, and MacPhail holding out. IMO the holdup in THIS deal is the fact that MacPhail isn't too sure that the pieces he's getting back will make us better (short OR long term) than just keeping BRob.

I don't mind trading Roberts, but I don't like the fit of the Cubs at all.

[wildcard]

I want to rebuild. I want to get younger. I want to get better. That said, the Cubs are NOT a good fit to trade Roberts to. I'd keep Roberts, hope he has a typical Roberts first half, and trade him at the deadline or when somebody's 2nd baseman gets hurt. The holdup in the Bedard deal was filling in the 4th and 5th pieces, and MacPhail holding out. IMO the holdup in THIS deal is the fact that MacPhail isn't too sure that the pieces he's getting back will make us better (short OR long term) than just keeping BRob.

I don't mind trading Roberts, but I don't like the fit of the Cubs at all.

Very valid and clearly stated point.

[section18]

I was not comparing Jones to Scott. Both are starters in the lineup. None of the players being offered back by the Cubs would start in their lineup unless someone is injured. If Murton is included he could start at some point if needed but will probably be platooned. Why can't we get a starting everyday player back in this package? AM likes prospects but he also likes at least two players who are major league ready. In each of the previous trades we got Jones and Sherrill from Seattle and Scott and one of the pitchers Sarfate or Albers who will be on the ML roster opening day. Even the Trachsel trade brought Scott Moore who could start at 1B or DH and is ready for 3B if Mora is dealt to the Dodgers or Marlins.

Why do you think this deal hasn't been made? None of the others took this long. The package isn't good enough. Hendry needs to respect his manager and either get it done today or tomorrow or forget about it.