Would you consider putting Britton in the rotation at the start of 2016?

[Tony-OH]

Okay True, he had the pitch, but he was very inconsistent with it.

Absolutely. Look at how his command fell off the longer he was in games back when he was a starter. Perhaps he's commanding it better because he has better command when he's fresh?

I understand the thought process behind some people wanting to try him back as a starter, but I subscribe to the theory that some guys stuff just play up in shorter stints and Britton is one of those guys. I always liked Britton and have been on him longer than most, but when I really starter to fall in love with him as a pitcher was when I saw his stuff in the futures games when he came in as a releiver. He was electric and it was a preview to how he could be as a reliever.

Though not as electric, I think Tim Berry falls in the same category. It was good to see the Orioles finally convert him to relief at Bowie where he's pitched much better in that role.

[DrungoHazewood]

So we are now considering young starters that pitch to 4.15ish FiPs to be failures? I'll make sure to mention this to Justin Verlander.

When Verlander threw to a 4.18 FIP in 2008 the league ERA was 4.35, so he was a bit better than average. When Britton had a 4.00 FIP in 2011 the league mark was 3.94. The context there was 10% different in Britton's favor. And, of course, Verlander improved dramatically and became very durable and successful while Britton slid backwards and was hurt and only regained his footing with a role change.

[Tony-OH]

While I agree with Tony's conclusion, this dataset is biased because the 1-25 data includes all of his one-inning stints as a reliever. Take that out and he probably has a very typical times-through-the-order penalty.

But it still shows his stuff plays down in a starter's role and you can see how his command wanders the longer he goes into games. His sinker was good at 92-93 as a starter, but it wasn't swing and miss in the zone good like it is at 95-98.

[DrungoHazewood]

But it still shows his stuff plays down in a starter's role and you can see how his command wanders the longer he goes into games. His sinker was good at 92-93 as a starter, but it wasn't swing and miss in the zone good like it is at 95-98.

No disagreement here. But all pitchers show some kind of similar effect - they're all worse the more times a lineup faces them. Actually, there's some preliminary data that indicates the impact of times through the order may be somewhat smaller with GB pitchers.

[Phantom]

But it still shows his stuff plays down in a starter's role and you can see how his command wanders the longer he goes into games. His sinker was good at 92-93 as a starter, but it wasn't swing and miss in the zone good like it is at 95-98.

Small sample sizes don't show anything. He hadn't even faced enough batters for most of his stats to stabilize, let alone for us to start drawing conclusions.

[DrungoHazewood]

Small sample sizes don't show anything. He hadn't even faced enough batters for most of his stats to stabilize, let alone for us to start drawing conclusions.

His starter data was within what we'd expect from a typical pitcher. An average MLB pitcher loses about 0.015 points of wOBA for each time through the order, and Britton's performance was close enough to average to be unremarkable.

[Number5]

No disagreement here. But all pitchers show some kind of similar effect - they're all worse the more times a lineup faces them. Actually, there's some preliminary data that indicates the impact of times through the order may be somewhat smaller with GB pitchers.

This is generally true, but there are exceptions. Mike Cuellar, for example seemed to become unhittable after the first time through the lineup.

[Redskins Rick]

Absolutely. Look at how his command fell off the longer he was in games back when he was a starter. Perhaps he's commanding it better because he has better command when he's fresh?

I understand the thought process behind some people wanting to try him back as a starter, but I subscribe to the theory that some guys stuff just play up in shorter stints and Britton is one of those guys. I always liked Britton and have been on him longer than most, but when I really starter to fall in love with him as a pitcher was when I saw his stuff in the futures games when he came in as a releiver. He was electric and it was a preview to how he could be as a reliever.

Though not as electric, I think Tim Berry falls in the same category. It was good to see the Orioles finally convert him to relief at Bowie where he's pitched much better in that role.

I dont remember Britton the starter being dominant in his early innings.

Britton had a whole different air about him, back in ST, he had his light bulb moment for sure.

I think think he has shown the ability to be a 2 inning closer, at least sparingly.

[Phantom]

His starter data was within what we'd expect from a typical pitcher. An average MLB pitcher loses about 0.015 points of wOBA for each time through the order, and Britton's performance was close enough to average to be unremarkable.

So not only is it a poor sample, it's an inaccurate conclusion as well?

I'm curious about another thing, what is the injury risk of starters vs relievers? What about when stabilized for IP?

[DrungoHazewood]

This is generally true, but there are exceptions. Mike Cuellar, for example seemed to become unhittable after the first time through the lineup.

Does the data actually show that?

[DrungoHazewood]

So not only is it a poor sample, it's an inaccurate conclusion as well?

I'm curious about another thing, what is the injury risk of starters vs relievers? What about when stabilized for IP?

No, the conclusion was that he was worse the further along in the game he went. Which is true and typical. And I'm not sure what the relative injury risk is. Only that changing roles increases injury risk.

[Can_of_corn]

Does the data actually show that?

Doesn't seem to.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=cuellmi01&year=Career&t=p

[Ruzious]

Rather than moving our closer to the rotation, I'd take a shot on Ross Detwiler (sp?) - the lefty just DFA'd by Texas. If he fails, I still have my closer.

Ross seemed like he was always on the cusp of being a breakout starter for the Nats, but they never made him a priority, and he got stunk as a swingman never really getting a full shot. I think that damaged his confidence. Seems like Buck and the O's pitching coaches would have a solid chance to get his confidence back.

[DrungoHazewood]

Doesn't seem to.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=cuellmi01&year=Career&t=p

So... hard... to... not... click... link. It kills me that bb-ref hard-locks, have to hit the power button to reset my work computer. Strangest thing. I have to goof off at work with one hand tied behind my back.

[Redskins Rick]

Rather than moving our closer to the rotation, I'd take a shot on Ross Detwiler (sp?) - the lefty just DFA'd by Texas. If he fails, I still have my closer.

Ross seemed like he was always on the cusp of being a breakout starter for the Nats, but they never made him a priority, and he got stunk as a swingman never really getting a full shot. I think that damaged his confidence. Seems like Buck and the O's pitching coaches would have a solid chance to get his confidence back.

I thought our pitching staff couldn't fix or coach anybody?