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The secret of Zach Britton's unique dominance

xian4

By xian4
in Orioles Talk

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Kansas City's advance scouts had Britton figured out in last year's ALCS.

"Just stand there. It'll look like a strike until the last 15 feet. It's not going to be a strike."

That was the book on him even back when he was starting.

Of course with the changes in the strike zone most umps are calling enough of them a strike these days.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Another good article on Britton on Fangraphs today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/zach-brittons-chapman-changeup/

There's some chance you don't realize how amazing Britton most recently was. If that's the case, he finished 10th in baseball in adjusted ERA, second in baseball in adjusted FIP, and first in baseball in adjusted xFIP. Between years, he nearly doubled his K-BB%, and he just posted the highest groundball rate we have on record. Britton was already good in 2014, but then he improved his sinker command, and he started throwing a little harder. While he threw fewer pitches in the zone, he generated way more swings at pitches out of the zone, so he threw plenty more strikes, and all the rest of the good stuff followed. Britton did everything you want out of a reliever. He even managed to limit hard contact.

The story of Britton's career is his sinker, which he's thrown considerably harder since moving to the bullpen. Last year, of all the pitchers with at least 50 innings, Britton threw a greater rate of sinkers than any other pitcher threw of anything. Nine out of every 10 pitches were sinkers, just as was the case the year before, but opponents couldn't do anything to adjust. Britton's 2014 ERA was far lower than his FIP, but instead of the former moving up in 2015, the latter went down. Britton's peripherals adjusted to match his ERA, in a sense. While there are other lefties who throw sinkers with Britton's movement, there's not a single one who matches Britton's blend of movement and velocity.

Elite reliever. Nine out of 10 sinkers. When you face Zach Britton, you know exactly what to prepare for. Odds are, you're going to get a sinker, and it's going to be hard, and it's going to be low. Yet nine out of 10 leaves one out of 10. About 10% of the time, Zach Britton throws a slider. The slider is Zach Britton's version of Aroldis Chapman's changeup. It's less obviously unfair, but it's unfair nevertheless, and, hell, Chapman's changeup is his third pitch. The slider is Britton's second.

Making use of the Baseball Prospectus PITCHf/x leaderboards, I ran some math. I looked at pitches thrown last year that generated at least 25 swings. It's a low minimum, but we're not looking into one of the noisiest statistics. Once I had those pitches identified, I sorted in descending order of whiffs per swing. Think of this as just 1 -- contact rate. The top five, by this simple measure:

1.Carter Capps, curveball, 76% whiffs/swing

2.Zach Britton, slider, 74%

3.Cody Allen, curveball, 64%

4.Neil Ramirez, slider, 59%

5.Jeremy Jeffress, curveball, 59%

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I'm not sure this team needs an elite closer more then it needs what he would have brought back in trade.

Koji was the greatest reliever I ever saw. When he was un-hittable. Game over. Just like Gagne. Andrew Miller was totally devastating. I remember when no one could hit Neshek.

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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I'm not sure this team needs an elite closer more then it needs what he would have brought back in trade.

As much as Britton is a beast the team is currently constructed in the wrong way. One of the best bullpens in MLB but one of the worst rotations in baseball. I expect the rotation will be better. But the better the rotation the less of a factor the pen has to be. With the trades that were being made for "closers" this offseason we may have missed out.

It's nice to have Britton and all. But we're probably looking at 40-45 starts from Worley, Bundy, Wright and Wilson right now. It's hard to win 90 games with that.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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He was never any more shut down than those specific examples I gave. Obviously Rivera was a freak in that he remained good forever.

Yeah, it's mostly about how long you can stay on top of your game. Britton strikes me as a guy who might stay good for a long time, but who knows.

There's almost nothing worse than having an unreliable closer. Orioles fans should know.

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JayThomas All-Star

JayThomas

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I'm not sure this team needs an elite closer more then it needs what he would have brought back in trade.

Or still could bring back in a trade, if we'd take our head out of the sand. Again, just me guessing, but to me this has Buck and Pete all over it. I think Dan would trade him at his peak value, as I think most good GM's would.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Yeah, it's mostly about how long you can stay on top of your game. Britton strikes me as a guy who might stay good for a long time, but who knows.

There's almost nothing worse than having an unreliable closer. Orioles fans should know.

He strikes me as a guy who's walk rate would triple if the bottom of the strike zone moved two inches. But for now...

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