2016 Rotation

[Aglets]

So the more time that passes the increasingly more clear it shows that our pitching is the main reason why we regressed from our great run last year.

Here's how our rotation has done this year relative to last year:

Jimenez (4.26 in '15 compared to 4.81 in '14)

Gonzalez (4.73 in '15 compared to 3.23 in '14)

Tillman (4.51 in '15 compared to 3.34 in '14)

Gausman (4.30 in '15 compared to 3.57 in '14)

These guys are who I think we should focus most on, as they are all likely to return next year. Obviously Norris putting up a 7.06 over 11 starts really hurt us too compared to his 3.65 last year, but that's all water under the bridge now.

Chen has actually improved so far this year (3.13 ERA), but I don't see how we pony up the money to keep him here.

So what about 2016? Tillman and Gausman have actually both improved in the 2nd half so far, so there's some hope.

Gonzalez has regressed, and Ubaldo is looking like bad Ubaldo again. But what can be done? Oh, and who gets the 5th spot?

Wilson? Bundy?

I guess the main question I'm interested in exploring is should we expect Gonzo and Ubaldo to be locks for the rotation next year or is there a chance we try something else? I realize Ubaldo's contract dictates you basically have to give him at least one more year to try and find his form.

[Bahama O's Fan]

So the more time that passes the increasingly more clear it shows that our pitching is the main reason why we regressed from our great run last year.

Here's how our rotation has done this year relative to last year:

Jimenez (4.26 in '15 compared to 4.81 in '14)

Gonzalez (4.73 in '15 compared to 3.23 in '14)

Tillman (4.51 in '15 compared to 3.34 in '14)

Gausman (4.30 in '15 compared to 3.57 in '14)

These guys are who I think we should focus most on, as they are all likely to return next year. Obviously Norris putting up a 7.06 over 11 starts really hurt us too compared to his 3.65 last year, but that's all water under the bridge now.

Chen has actually improved so far this year (3.13 ERA), but I don't see how we pony up the money to keep him here.

So what about 2016? Tillman and Gausman have actually both improved in the 2nd half so far, so there's some hope.

Gonzalez has regressed, and Ubaldo is looking like bad Ubaldo again. But what can be done? Oh, and who gets the 5th spot?

Wilson? Bundy?

I guess the main question I'm interested in exploring is should we expect Gonzo and Ubaldo to be locks for the rotation next year or is there a chance we try something else? I realize Ubaldo's contract dictates you basically have to give him at least one more year to try and find his form.

I really am thinking we should go all out for an ace, someone like Price or Cueto. And then spend on one big bat like Davis and a few complimentary pieces.

[MDtransplant757]

I really am thinking we should go all out for an ace' date=' someone like Price or Cueto. And then spend on one big bat like Davis and a few complimentary pieces.[/quote']

I think we should spend it on a good pitcher like Cueto, and a bat like Cespedes instead of Davis

[Phantom]

The good news is, I really think Gausman is going to be a 3.50 ERA starter by next year. The bad news is everything else. Tillman and Gonzo, it turns out, don't have some magic elixirs to beat their peripherals, which means that Tilly is a 4.25 ERA and Gonzo is AAA material. Ubaldo isn't much better, but we need starts from somewhere. Hopefully we can sign a front end stud, and hope one of the guys in the minor can replace Gonzo if he doesn't turn it around, but that's a lot of hoping.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Do you think, if healthy, we throw Bundy in there and let him have 10 starts to see what he's got, since he has no options?

[ReclaimTheCrown]

I would be quite surprised if we drop a ton of money on an ace this offseason, though there's a decent argument that that would be the best course of action. Most likely, I believe, we'll roll with the four starters we have under contract (Tilly, Gausman, Miguel, and Ubaldo), then bring in a cheap-ish veteran (thinking a Joe Saunders-ish type player) to compete with Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright. The regression, of course, is highly concerning, but I think it's a decent bet that Tilly and Gausman have productive years next year. One would hope Miguel can rediscover his form and, frankly, who knows about Ubaldo, but that contract dictates we almost don't have a choice but to try him. Beyond that, I think Wilson and Wright have shown enough promise to warrant a look, especially if you're working off the assumption (as I think DD alluded at one point), that they like "the guys they have" (presumably Wilson and Wright) more than Davies. Maybe Bundy will make a recovery and get in the mix there, too.

I'm sure that's not terribly satisfying for folks, but I think that's the most likely scenario. I can't see us dropping 150 mil plus on a frontline arm, and do we really want to roll the dice with another overpriced starter of questionable quality like Ubaldo? I don't know...

[Mendoza Line]

The good news is, I really think Gausman is going to be a 3.50 ERA starter by next year. The bad news is everything else. Tillman and Gonzo, it turns out, don't have some magic elixirs to beat their peripherals, which means that Tilly is a 4.25 ERA and Gonzo is AAA material. Ubaldo isn't much better, but we need starts from somewhere. Hopefully we can sign a front end stud, and hope one of the guys in the minor can replace Gonzo if he doesn't turn it around, but that's a lot of hoping.

That's a pretty specious view of things. After a terrible first half where he couldn't consistently throw strikes, Tillman has been very good outside one 13 day layoff start post injury. Guess he must have found that elixir again.

[winkies]

Gausman won't be good until he learns fastball command.

Easier said than done. You can't just fairywish fastball command. And right now he doesn't have it. And hasn't had it ever. It was the knock on him coming out of LSU, along with no breaking pitch.

But I'm more concerned about the fastball command.

[Aglets]

That's a pretty specious view of things. After a terrible first half where he couldn't consistently throw strikes, Tillman has been very good outside one 13 day layoff start post injury. Guess he must have found that elixir again.

He's been crushed by Toronto (15 ERA over 4 starts) and knocked around by NYY (6.35 ERA in 1 start) which is not entirely encouraging in our division. But those teams knock a lot of pitchers around I'm sure. Hopefully those trends don't continue this September.

It's true that outside of those games overall his numbers are pretty good.

[Aristotelian]

Gausman has to be given a shot to start the year. He is now our top young arm. It is make or break time for him.

Gonzo is the biggest concern for me. Is this year a case of nagging effects of his groin injury, or regression to his norms? To start the year, he was actually doing better than his career norms. I think we give him a shot to find out, but there better be a plan B.

I am guessing they will be very careful with Bundy. Start him in the bullpen as a long/middle inning guy. If he is doing well, consider moving to the rotation when a spot opens up.

That leaves a 5th spot for Wilson, Wright, Miranda, and Gunkel. Folks on the board have proposed Wright for the bullpen due to his repertoire. That seems right to me. Wilson already has some experience, but Miranda and Gunkel are putting up some big numbers. Could come down to who is looking good and healthy in the spring.

I would love to see the O's go after a Price/Cueto but it's hard to imagine with all the other priorities. The only way I could see Price/Cueto happening is if we trade Ubaldo basically as a salary dump, but he is going to give us back little if anything and I dont know if he has shown enough for anyone else to take on his salary.

I would guess the most likely scenario is a second tier free agent to replace Chen. Due to a buyer's market with pitchers, it is possible that Chen's price falls and we end up with him again, or someone comparable. Maybe one of Iwakuma, Kazmir, Latos, Fister, etc, if Boras refuses to come down on Chen.

In summary, my most realistic prediction would be Tillman, Kazmir/Iwakuma, Gausman, Ubaldo, (Gonzo/Wilson/Miranda/Gunkel with the edge going to Gonzo unless he has a terrible spring). Dream scenario would be Price, Tillman, Gausman, with two of the Gonzo/Wilson/Miranda/Wright group.

[Frobby]

I'm OK going to battle with those four, but we need a TOR guy to go with them. Downgrading from Chen will be a big mistake, instead we should look to upgrade.

As to the four, I think Gausman, Tillman and Gonzo will all do better next year. Ubaldo could go in any direction.

[clapdiddy]

I'm OK going to battle with those four, but we need a TOR guy to go with them. Downgrading from Chen will be a big mistake, instead we should look to upgrade.

As to the four, I think Gausman, Tillman and Gonzo will all do better next year. Ubaldo could go in any direction.

And...he likely will...from start to start!

[Babypowder]

I really am thinking we should go all out for an ace' date=' someone like Price or Cueto. And then spend on one big bat like Davis and a few complimentary pieces.[/quote']

I think we should spend it on a good pitcher like Cueto, and a bat like Cespedes instead of Davis

I'm thinking they should just spend the money and cure cancer.

That's about as likely as either of these scenarios.

[clapdiddy]

I'm thinking they should just spend the money and cure cancer.

That's about as likely as either of these scenarios.

I see us going after a second-tier starter...which makes me think we should just try to bid on Chen!

[Rene88]

You might see Bundy next year...

Come in to the clubhouse and collect his paycheck and then go buy a new truck.

On a serious note, not sure how DD is going to deal with that. My guess is that he never pitches again or gets hurt in ST and off to surgery and the 60-day DL.