It has now been 21.2 innings since we scored against an opposing team's bullpen.

[Uli2001]

Baseball-reference has the late and close stat. It means from the 7th inning on when the team is tied, down 1 or has tying run on deck.

AL Rankings BA OPS

2012 .227(11) .677(8)

2013 .252(5) .722(4)

2014 .262(1) .733(3)

2015 .214(14) .614(15)

The Orioles are the worst team in the AL in OPS in late and close. Their OBP this year is by far the worst in the AL. Last year their OBP was .325, this year it is .265, closes team is at .281.

More on late and close. Cruz, Markakis and Pearce were the Orioles 3 best last year. This year Caleb is hitting .188 with OPS of .464, Schoop who was terrible in 2014 also is .188 with OPS of .548. Paredes is .156 and .391 and Flaherty is hitting .040, (1 for 25) with OPS of .346.

We have a team that seems incapable late in tight games to add runs unless in comes from homers which is hard to do vs top flight relief pitching. Schoop seems to expand the zone even more in these types of spots.

Wow, that's pretty terrible. It goes a long way towards explaining our abysmal record in one-run games.

This is what I was talking about when I write in the game thread last night that the best way to lose low-scoring one-run games (the Orioles' specialty lately) is to have a putrid offense. And this is what the Orioles have this year.

Don't let the season statistics deceive you. The Orioles' offense is terrible when it matters the most. In close games, it cannot manufacture a run by beating out an infield single or taking a BB, moving runners, scoring with men on third and less than two outs. It's a lineup full of lumbering sluggers swinging for the fences. That's why the run differential is around +50 but the record is below .500.

[Uli2001]

*wrote in the game thread.

[eddie83]

Wow, that's pretty terrible. It goes a long way towards explaining our abysmal record in one-run games.

It also shows just how special that 2012 pen was. Markakis is having another good year late and close in Atlanta this year. Parra's numbers were not as good as I thought they would be. Jones had actually improved compared to the start of his career.

I would like to see some different types of hitters next year. We do seem to have a redundant team on offense. Maybe this year is somewhat of a fluke because it wasn't like last years team was built that different. That being said we had 3 walk off wins last homestand-all via the HR. Manny had been ok this year but Schoop has been very poor the last 2 years.

If figures our pen has been the least of our issues but the crushing series of the year vs the Twins we lost 3 late leads. Not that we were hit hard but you see what happens when you put runners on and put the ball in play.

[Frobby]

This is what I was talking about when I write in the game thread last night that the best way to lose low-scoring one-run games (the Orioles' specialty lately) is to have a putrid offense. And this is what the Orioles have this year.

Don't let the season statistics deceive you. The Orioles' offense is terrible when it matters the most. In close games, it cannot manufacture a run by beating out an infield single or taking a BB, moving runners, scoring with men on third and less than two outs. It's a lineup full of lumbering sluggers swinging for the fences. That's why the run differential is around +50 but the record is below .500.

I don't really buy that. The lineup has been constructed basically the same way (low OBP, high SLG, lots of HRs) in each of the last four years, so why this year in particular are the late innings a problem?

[eddie83]

I don't really buy that. The lineup has been constructed basically the same way (low OBP, high SLG, lots of HRs) in each of the last four years, so why this year in particular are the late innings a problem?

A fluke year with some bad luck mixed in with young players trying to do too much?

[e16bball]

I looked it up and we are #8 in runs scored with 547. KC is #9 with 545.

The point is that this year, for all our homers, we aren't outscoring the Royals. With our style we might get 15 runs one game and 3 runs for 5 games in a row. With the Royals' style they'd be more apt to get 5 runs 6 games in a row.

I know which one I'd bet on to win more.

• The Orioles have scored 4-7 runs in 51 games this season. The Royals have scored 4-7 runs in 52 games this season.
• The two teams are also almost identical in terms of how many low scoring (0-3 runs) games they've had, as the Orioles have had 56 such games and the Royals have had 55.
• The two teams are also identical in terms of how many high scoring (8+ runs) games they've had, as both teams have had 18 such games.

Appearances can be deceiving. The teams have scored nearly an identical number of runs, and those runs have been distributed quite similarly in terms of the number of runs scored in each game. They do it in a very different way, but it all has come out basically the same.

If you're looking for the difference between the two teams, it has a lot less to do with offensive style and a lot more to do with their starting pitching, bullpen, and defense all being marginally better than ours. And moreso than anything, it has to do with their record in close games being outstanding --- and ours being poor.

[SteveO]

• The Orioles have scored 4-7 runs in 51 games this season. The Royals have scored 4-7 runs in 52 games this season.
• The two teams are also almost identical in terms of how many low scoring (0-3 runs) games they've had, as the Orioles have had 56 such games and the Royals have had 55.
• The two teams are also identical in terms of how many high scoring (8+ runs) games they've had, as both teams have had 18 such games.

Appearances can be deceiving. The teams have scored nearly an identical number of runs, and those runs have been distributed quite similarly in terms of the number of runs scored in each game. They do it in a very different way, but it all has come out basically the same.

If you're looking for the difference between the two teams, it has a lot less to do with offensive style and a lot more to do with their starting pitching, bullpen, and defense all being marginally better than ours. And moreso than anything, it has to do with their record in close games being outstanding --- and ours being poor.

4.26 ERA for KC vs 4.37 for the O's starters. Both teams have not gotten great SP pitching. Their BP though is a full half run better than than the O's 2.32 vs 2.84

though both teams have very good BP performance.

In late and close games though, the Royals are 4th having scored 64 runs, the Orioles are 10th only scoring 49. They are also hitting .275 with and OBP of .351 in those scenarios. The O's have hit .214/.259. The reality seems that the Royals have been much much better at creating and cashing in late in the game. When combine an offense that has done better than average late and in close games with a bullpen that is as stingy as theirs, that is nice little 1-2 punch.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+hitting&game_type='R'&season=2015&season_type=ANY&league_code='AL'&sectionType=st&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1440623121113&playerType=ALL&timeframe=&last_x_days=&split=lc&position=&sortColumn=r&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0

[Frobby]

4.26 ERA for KC vs 4.37 for the O's starters. Both teams have not gotten great SP pitching. Their BP though is a full half run better than than the O's 2.32 vs 2.84

though both teams have very good BP performance.

In late and close games though, the Royals are 4th having scored 64 runs, the Orioles are 10th only scoring 49. They are also hitting .275 with and OBP of .351 in those scenarios. The O's have hit .214/.259. The reality seems that the Royals have been much much better at creating and cashing in late in the game. When combine an offense that has done better than average late and in close games with a bullpen that is as stingy as theirs, that is nice little 1-2 punch.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+hitting&game_type='R'&season=2015&season_type=ANY&league_code='AL'?ionType=st&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1440623121113&playerType=ALL&timeframe=&last_x_days=&split=lc&position=&sortColumn=r&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0

Interesting that the O's are 10th in runs scored in those situations, which, while below average, is not as bad as the .214 BA (14th) and .614 OPS (15th) would have suggested.

I would need a lot more evidence to conclude that, in general, teams that rely a lot on home runs do worse in late & close situations than teams that rely on getting on base and stringing hits together. The O's were fine at scoring runs late in the last couple of years, with the same type of team. This year they're not. Sometimes, that's how the chips fall.

[SteveO]

Interesting that the O's are 10th in runs scored in those situations, which, while below average, is not as bad as the .214 BA (14th) and .614 OPS (15th) would have suggested.

I would need a lot more evidence to conclude that, in general, teams that rely a lot on home runs do worse in late & close situations than teams that rely on getting on base and stringing hits together. The O's were fine at scoring runs late in the last couple of years, with the same type of team. This year they're not. Sometimes, that's how the chips fall.

I agree with this. My only point in posting it was that IMO, a lot of the difference in results on the field can be traced to performance late and in close games. In most other areas the two teams are pretty close.

In 2014 the O's were 2nd in the AL scoring 83 runs with a .248/.327/.696 line. The Royals were 12th scoring 67 with a .238/.306/.644 line. The O's were actually #1 in the AL in 2013 in scoring late and close. All this stats seem to support your belief that the it has little to do with the type of offense and is more driven by the player performance in those situations. For whatever reasons, this year, this team has not been good at all in those situations whereas they had been above average in the prior two years.

[Frobby]

I agree with this. My only point in posting it was that IMO, a lot of the difference in results on the field can be traced to performance late and in close games. In most other areas the two teams are pretty close.

In 2014 the O's were 2nd in the AL scoring 83 runs with a .248/.327/.696 line. The Royals were 12th scoring 67 with a .238/.306/.644 line. The O's were actually #1 in the AL in 2013 in scoring late and close. All this stats seem to support your belief that the it has little to do with the type of offense and is more driven by the player performance in those situations. For whatever reasons, this year, this team has not been good at all in those situations whereas they had been above average in the prior two years.

It's the Delmon Young factor! Last year he hit .340/.367/.468 in late & close situations, and was a ridiculous .500/.565/.800 hitter as a pinch hitter. He was a good pinch hitter this year, too, but not so great a hitter in late & close (.222/.276/.222). (I am using BB-ref, which may define late & close differently than mlb.com).

[Three Run Homer]

The O's offensive struggles in late/close situations are interesting. I wonder to what extent they are just more evidence that the O's are struggling against tough competition this season. Late/close situations are when you are going to face the opposition's best relievers.

If the O's lineup is full of mistake hitters, it would make sense that they would struggle against the best pitchers, who make the fewest mistakes.

[glenn__davis]

And the streak ends against our old friend Judas Guthrie.

By my count it was 24 full innings.

[SteveO]

The O's offensive struggles in late/close situations are interesting. I wonder to what extent they are just more evidence that the O's are struggling against tough competition this season. Late/close situations are when you are going to face the opposition's best relievers.

If the O's lineup is full of mistake hitters, it would make sense that they would struggle against the best pitchers, who make the fewest mistakes.

Except in 2013 and 2014 the Orioles were near the top in this category with pretty similar personnel. I think it just is a situation were for whatever reasons the guys are not producing in those situations. They have done so in the past so it follows they are capable.

[MDtransplant757]

Welp, that streak ended tonight

[Can_of_corn]

Welp, that streak ended tonight

Technically it did.

Then again the relief pitcher in question just got pulled from the rotation a few days ago and pitched almost as many innings as Gonzo did the other day.