Finding surplus value -- it isn't easy

[Frobby]

I certainly think it's possible we can compete.

But how many wins do you think we need to realistically add this offseason to do that?

I'm thinking like 15.

That's not easy to do unless we spend a HUGE amount of money well, and/or get very lucky in a few spots.

Baseball's a mystery to me, despite following the sport for 50 years. We won the 2014 division title with a very replaceable version of Chris Davis, and half a season of Manny Machado, and one month of Matt Wieters. We did lose a few wins on paper when Markakis, Cruz and Miller left, but that still could have been a 90-win team. We weren't because the exact same pitchers who performed well in 2014 did a lousy job in 2015.

So, the first thing is, we need to replace Chen adequately, and then some of the pitchers who were in our rotation last year need to be better next year. That goes a very long way to putting us back in contention. Yes, we need to find a couple of hitters, but I believe Dan can find enough to make us a middle-of-the-pack offensive team. So it's going to come down to the pitching IMO.

[Pickles]

Baseball's a mystery to me, despite following the sport for 50 years. We won the 2014 division title with a very replaceable version of Chris Davis, and half a season of Manny Machado, and one month of Matt Wieters. We did lose a few wins on paper when Markakis, Cruz and Miller left, but that still could have been a 90-win team. We weren't because the exact same pitchers who performed well in 2014 did a lousy job in 2015.

So, the first thing is, we need to replace Chen adequately, and then some of the pitchers who were in our rotation last year need to be better next year. That goes a very long way to putting us back in contention. Yes, we need to find a couple of hitters, but I believe Dan can find enough to make us a middle-of-the-pack offensive team. So it's going to come down to the pitching IMO.

I mean, of course, stuff happens- for good and bad.

But on paper, we're a low 70s win team right now.

To realistically feel good about the playoffs, imo, we need to add close 15 wins.

That's not an easy thing to do.

[Pickles]

Baseball's a mystery to me, despite following the sport for 50 years. We won the 2014 division title with a very replaceable version of Chris Davis, and half a season of Manny Machado, and one month of Matt Wieters. We did lose a few wins on paper when Markakis, Cruz and Miller left, but that still could have been a 90-win team. We weren't because the exact same pitchers who performed well in 2014 did a lousy job in 2015.

So, the first thing is, we need to replace Chen adequately, and then some of the pitchers who were in our rotation last year need to be better next year. That goes a very long way to putting us back in contention. Yes, we need to find a couple of hitters, but I believe Dan can find enough to make us a middle-of-the-pack offensive team. So it's going to come down to the pitching IMO.

I mean, of course, stuff happens- for good and bad.

But on paper, we're a low 70s win team right now.

To realistically feel good about the playoffs, imo, we need to add close 15 wins.

That's not an easy thing to do.

[Frobby]

I mean, of course, stuff happens- for good and bad.

But on paper, we're a low 70s win team right now.

To realistically feel good about the playoffs, imo, we need to add close 15 wins.

That's not an easy thing to do.

You really can't add 15 wins "on paper." But winning on the field is different from adding wins on paper. Some players who are on the team already have to have better seasons. A couple of guys you pick up for cheap have to give you some decent value. And yes, they need to spend some money on guys who can be counted on to perform well.

[Pickles]

You really can't add 15 wins "on paper." But winning on the field is different from adding wins on paper. Some players who are on the team already have to have better seasons. A couple of guys you pick up for cheap have to give you some decent value. And yes, they need to spend some money on guys who can be counted on to perform well.

Sounds like a lot needs to go right.

[Frobby]

Sounds like a lot needs to go right.

Yes, I think that is correct. But it is often correct that a lot went right for the teams that made the playoffs.

[SteveO]

Baseball's a mystery to me, despite following the sport for 50 years. We won the 2014 division title with a very replaceable version of Chris Davis, and half a season of Manny Machado, and one month of Matt Wieters. We did lose a few wins on paper when Markakis, Cruz and Miller left, but that still could have been a 90-win team. We weren't because the exact same pitchers who performed well in 2014 did a lousy job in 2015.

So, the first thing is, we need to replace Chen adequately, and then some of the pitchers who were in our rotation last year need to be better next year. That goes a very long way to putting us back in contention. Yes, we need to find a couple of hitters, but I believe Dan can find enough to make us a middle-of-the-pack offensive team. So it's going to come down to the pitching IMO.

Me to.

[Stotle]

Not to call you out too much stotle, and it's only your notoriety here that allows me to remember you saying it, but one of the reasons you were against the Jones' extension was because you said we didn't have enough surplus value on the roster.

I disagreed w that vehemently then. We had a whole pitching staff of young cheap (talented) options, and guys like Davis, Hardy, Wieters, Jones himself on the positional side.

However, here and now, I think we're in real trouble. Fangraphs has us like 26th in projected WAR for 2016, behind every team in our division, and we'd be lucky if our farm system was ranked that high.

Signing some FAs, even to solid, reasonable deals, isn't going to be enough. I'm officially very worried.

I'm not sure I was wrong, was I? The contract turned out MUCH better than I thought it would. Even still, Baltimore's lack of a consistent talent pipeline has forced the FO to piece together a 25 man in search of finding excess value via reclamation projects and long shots.

I think the calculus is complicated by the unexpected 2012, of course. And a jones extension is at the very bottom of "things that should have been differently" list. The real crunch on the payroll at this point is other contracts.

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[Pickles]

I'm not sure I was wrong, was I? The contract turned out MUCH better than I thought it would. Even still, Baltimore's lack of a consistent talent pipeline has forced the FO to piece together a 25 man in search of finding excess value via reclamation projects and long shots.

I think the calculus is complicated by the unexpected 2012, of course. And a jones extension is at the very bottom of "things that should have been differently" list. The real crunch on the payroll at this point is other contracts.

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Oh, I think you were clearly wrong.

They just had a run of four competitive years AFTER signing that contract, largely based on the surplus value they received already on players in house.

It's not about the Jones' extension. It's about the fact that they did indeed have a TON of surplus value in house and going forward in 2012.

Like I said, I don't say it to rub your nose it or anything. I couldn't stand Arrietta, and I was glad they got rid of him. Although I would have liked more back than 4 months of Feldman. But clearly I was DEAD wrong there.

The problem now isn't necessarily onerous contracts.

It's a lack of pre-FA talent.

[Pickles]

Yes, I think that is correct. But it is often correct that a lot went right for the teams that made the playoffs.

True.

But to my mind we need more than the "average" good luck at this point.

I've said it before but I'll say it again: I'm very, very worried about this team's ability to compete going forward.

[Stotle]

Oh, I think you were clearly wrong.

They just had a run of four competitive years AFTER signing that contract, largely based on the surplus value they received already on players in house.

It's not about the Jones' extension. It's about the fact that they did indeed have a TON of surplus value in house and going forward in 2012.

Like I said, I don't say it to rub your nose it or anything. I couldn't stand Arrietta, and I was glad they got rid of him. Although I would have liked more back than 4 months of Feldman. But clearly I was DEAD wrong there.

The problem now isn't necessarily onerous contracts.

It's a lack of pre-FA talent.

To be honest, I don't remember the crux of the argument other than I thought extending him after a spike in HR/FB % was overpaying. As I said, he's definitely performed much better than I expected, I figured a 3-3.5 WAR kind of producer by public metrics and he's been about .5-1.5 better over each season of his contract (I believe).

I was also behind the curve in taking into account the rapid increase in player salaries, which makes even the last few years of his contract a very nice deal even if he were to only produce at a 3 WAR rate.

So, I was definitely wrong about Jones. I think I've said that multiple times, but if I haven't, well, now I have.

As far as the underlying issue with the Orioles building a winner? To me it's the same issue I harped upon in 2011/2012. You need to have surplus value coming through homegrown players. Maybe that lack of cost-controlled talent didn't stop Baltimore from making a couple of playoff runs, but they did so with teams that were forced to try and find that surplus value elsewhere, and even then it required pushing the payroll higher than the fan base had reason to believe Baltimore would go.

Baltimore also had the benefit of seeing Machado emerge as a legit all-world player immediately, which was far from a given at the time of the Jones extension. Cruz came on board and stayed healthy for year and carried the team for half a season. The bullpen pitched out of its mind (not necessarily luck) and the team had an insane winning percentage in one run games (certainly something to do with luck). There wasn't necessarily much separating Baltimore from being a team with a couple of playoff appearances and a team doing an impression of the Blue Jays of the mid aughts (another team that couldn't quite string together enough surplus value to push it over the top in spite of having a solid core of talent).

Anyway, to reiterate, I was certainly wrong about the Jones contract. I still have the same feelings about the organizations inability to figure out the "homegrown talent" thing, and it took some luck and the quick emergence of a superstar to keep those chickens from coming home to roost before this offseason.

[Number5]

[Frobby]

True.

But to my mind we need more than the "average" good luck at this point.

I've said it before but I'll say it again: I'm very, very worried about this team's ability to compete going forward.

I agree we need more than "average" good luck. I'm not sure we need to pull an inside straight, which is essentially what happened in 2012.

In terms of the team competing going forward, I would describe myself as somewhat worried. Not worried enough to start a rebuild right now, but worried enough to recognize that we could be facing that prospect by July 2016 if some breaks don't go our way. Here are some factors (by no means exclusive):

- Does Gausman begin to take steps towards being a TOR starter?

- Is Bundy able to stay healthy and progress to the point where he can compete for the rotation in 2017?

- Can Tillman and Gonzalez have the kind of success that they had in 2012-14, or is 2015 the new normal for them?

- Can Hunter Harvey stay healthy and get to a point where he might make a contribution sometime in 2017?

- Can J.J. Hardy bounce back offensively and not lose anything much on defense?

- Will Jonathan Schoop continue to make progress offensively, and have a defensive season more akin to 2014 than 2015?

- Can Trey Mancini continue to hit at the AAA level and make himself a likely Oriole contributor for 2017?

- Will we get anything out of Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright in 2016 and beyond?

- Can Mychal Givens handle being an 8th inning guy on a regular basis?

- Can we get better production in the corner OF spots than we had in 2015?

- Can we find a competent replacement for Chris Davis?

Lots of questions here. I don't think we need to bat 1.000 on these issues to contend in 2016. But we need to hit better than .500, I'd say. Especially on the starting pitching questions.

[osfan83]

I have listened to Os fans speak to the importance of Melvin Mora to the team, the importance of Brian Roberts, of Nick Markakis, of Matt Wieters, of JJ Hardy, of Chris Davis, blah, blah, blah, blah. Every one of them would have brought a uber-quality prospect haul at various points and in every case we would have been better off than we were carrying those players to FA and/or poor production.

The one star we DID trade in his prime - Erik Bedard - actually brought a uber-quality prospect haul that set the stage for a massive organizational rebound. The two times we traded high quality relief pitchers - Koji Uehara and George Sherrill - we received tremendous talent back. What we received for Sherrill did not pan out into anything and we were none the worse for wear in the bullpen.

What is it about the Bedard, Sherrill and Uehara deals that would prevent Os fans from repeating them if/when given the opportunity?

The difference is the Bedard, Sherrill and Uehara deals were made when the team was not competitive. If the O's were within a game or two of the playoffs I doubt they would have traded Bedard, and if they did the fans would have rebelled.

[Camden_yardbird]

I agree we need more than "average" good luck. I'm not sure we need to pull an inside straight, which is essentially what happened in 2012.

In terms of the team competing going forward, I would describe myself as somewhat worried. Not worried enough to start a rebuild right now, but worried enough to recognize that we could be facing that prospect by July 2016 if some breaks don't go our way. Here are some factors (by no means exclusive):

- Does Gausman begin to take steps towards being a TOR starter?

- Is Bundy able to stay healthy and progress to the point where he can compete for the rotation in 2017?

- Can Tillman and Gonzalez have the kind of success that they had in 2012-14, or is 2015 the new normal for them?

- Can Hunter Harvey stay healthy and get to a point where he might make a contribution sometime in 2017?

- Can J.J. Hardy bounce back offensively and not lose anything much on defense?

- Will Jonathan Schoop continue to make progress offensively, and have a defensive season more akin to 2014 than 2015?

- Can Trey Mancini continue to hit at the AAA level and make himself a likely Oriole contributor for 2017?

- Will we get anything out of Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright in 2016 and beyond?

- Can Mychal Givens handle being an 8th inning guy on a regular basis?

- Can we get better production in the corner OF spots than we had in 2015?

- Can we find a competent replacement for Chris Davis?

Lots of questions here. I don't think we need to bat 1.000 on these issues to contend in 2016. But we need to hit better than .500, I'd say. Especially on the starting pitching questions.

A rebuild in June 2016 means goodbye Jones, and see if you can do someone to do something stupid on Machado. That's why I wanted to see it start in June of this past year. I feel like the nadir of the rebuild would have been much better if they started a year early. I fear the nadir of a rebuild that begins with the trade of Jones. The plus side is if they went whole hog into it Jones, Tillman, Ubaldo and Britton probably could net a number of promising young prospects.

It's also worth noting that even in a rebuild you have to find surplus value. It may be a little easier because you can give guys a chance without the expectation of wins.