Olney, Baltimore Wire, and Augusta Free Press: Chris Davis Should Consider a 1-Year Deal

[El Gordo]

You really think that's anything other than legalese? If Davis came back to the Orioles and said he would take that offer, do you not think they would sign him?

They shouldn't for that. They should counter with less money and years.

[jjnono]

I'd offer Davis a 6 year / $120MM offer right now and tell him he has 48 hours to accept it... And I'd offer him a year and $20MM less every week from now to spring training...

[Frobby]

They shouldn't for that. They should counter with less money and years.

Legally this is possible, and perhaps the market would allow it as well, but it is pretty rare in negotiations for a party to lower an offer it previously made. I'd really be surprised if the O's signed Davis for less than $150 mm.

[weams]

The risk is not at the same level in both scenario's. Davis takes a one year deal and things go bad he will lose $50M+. If he matches his 2015 in 2016 is he some how worth more than 6/150? I do not think so. You would be rolling the dice a ton. If a player wants to risk tens of hundreds of millions for a few more I just laugh. It really is silly.

We could easily find himself in the Moralez situation. He would have to fund big insurance policy as well.

[Can_of_corn]

Yeah, but that's what I meant.

Not sure why it would make a difference.

[Frobby]

Not sure why it would make a difference.

In one case you are turning down what the free market has to offer in terms of a long-term deal, in the other case you are turning down what one team has to offer in terms of a long-term deal. A team with rights to a player could make a $100 mm offer that is still way below market value and that the player is likely to beat if he can stay healthy for a year and just perform the same way as the year before, and maybe even a bit worse. But when you turn down a best of market offer in excess of $100 mm, that seems like a much bigger gamble. Admittedly, it's risky in both scenarios.

[AdamK]

If he signs a one year deal, I doubt it would be with us more than I doubt he'll sign that 7/150 deal with us. Since the public knows about the 7/150 deal, taking a 1 year deal with the same team, seems like pride would inhibit that agreement from being made.

I'm not clear on what language can and can not be included in contracts in MLB, but could it be possible there are points within our 7/150 offer that protect us from another TUE gaff?

Perhaps him wanting an opt out is not the hold up (as some have suggested) and perhaps it is related to the risk of him K'ing with PED-related matters.

[Can_of_corn]

In Scherzer's case the contract he eventually signed had a real value of 131M 2015 Dollars.

He turned down 6/144 (adjusted real value unknown) the year before.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/max-scherzer-and-when-210-million-isnt-210-million/

[srock]

Is he though? I'm hearing lots of crickets out there. The O's offer is off the table now. Who else is going to step up? Maybe he gets 4/100 if he's lucky.

Alright, 4/$100. Lets assume he takes such a deal.

$100 million guaranteed! Versus risking never making another dollar playing baseball again (or making much less).

Every dollar is worth slightly less then the dollar before it because a person only needs so much to live comfortably.

As Frobby points out, Chris Davis would be crazy not to lock up a long term deal this off season. The gauranteed money is just too good to pass up.

I think Davis (more likely Boras) wants an opt out just in case he signed for less then he is worth. Just look at Jones, if he had an opt out after 2014 he would be making a whole bunch more money right now without having taken the risk ending his career early without guaranteed money.

[Can_of_corn]

Alright, 4/$100. Lets assume he takes such a deal.

$100 million guaranteed! Versus risking never making another dollar playing baseball again (or making much less).

Every dollar is worth slightly less then the dollar before it because a person only needs so much to live comfortably.

As Frobby points out, Chris Davis would be crazy not to lock up a long term deal this off season. The gauranteed money is just too good to pass up.

I think Davis (more likely Boras) wants an opt out just in case he signed for less then he is worth. Just look at Jones, if he had an opt out after 2014 he would be making a whole bunch more money right now without having taken the risk ending his career early without guaranteed money.

And his value would have been at its peak after the 2013 or 2014 season.

Assuming current performance trends continue he isn't going to get a huge deal when his current contract is up.

[Number5]

If he signs a one year deal, I doubt it would be with us more than I doubt he'll sign that 7/150 deal with us. Since the public knows about the 7/150 deal, taking a 1 year deal with the same team, seems like pride would inhibit that agreement from being made.

I'm not clear on what language can and can not be included in contracts in MLB, but could it be possible there are points within our 7/150 offer that protect us from another TUE gaff?

Perhaps him wanting an opt out is not the hold up (as some have suggested) and perhaps it is related to the risk of him K'ing with PED-related matters.

I disagree with you on this. If his goal is to put up a season that would enable him to make more than he would have on a 7/$150 contract, there aren't many better places than OPACY for a LH power guy to play in 2016. The whole idea of a 1-year pillow contract is being able to demand a better long-term contract next off-season than you are likely to get now.

[fansince71]

Legally this is possible, and perhaps the market would allow it as well, but it is pretty rare in negotiations for a party to lower an offer it previously made. I'd really be surprised if the O's signed Davis for less than $150 mm.

I believe this too. Davis is not coming back to Baltimore for less than 150M. I think he would roll the dice and sign somewhere else on a one year deal.

[ChuckS]

This is one of the more ridiculous things I have read this month.

Chris is way too volatile of a player offensively to risk a one year deal coming off a 50 homerun season. Turning down 150 million now could potentially cost him tens of millions of dollars and not likely to make a huge difference in the plus direction for 2017.

[Aristotelian]

I wonder what it would take to sign him for a year.

Would you do a one year deal for $35 mil? $30 mil?

I think a $30 mil one year deal would be fair, actually. It's almost double the QO that Wieters took, and surely CD has the potential to greatly outpace Wieters' offensive numbers, and has more defensive versatility than Wieters does (if not defensive excellence).

He still costs a pick even with a one year deal (unless he waits til June to sign). He would get a lower AAV on a one year deal than he would with a long term contract. If the O's are thinking $21m per year for a seven year deal, I would think a one year deal would be more like $15m. Nowhere near $30m.

[Aristotelian]

Alright, 4/$100. Lets assume he takes such a deal.

$100 million guaranteed! Versus risking never making another dollar playing baseball again (or making much less).

Every dollar is worth slightly less then the dollar before it because a person only needs so much to live comfortably.

As Frobby points out, Chris Davis would be crazy not to lock up a long term deal this off season. The gauranteed money is just too good to pass up.

I think Davis (more likely Boras) wants an opt out just in case he signed for less then he is worth. Just look at Jones, if he had an opt out after 2014 he would be making a whole bunch more money right now without having taken the risk ending his career early without guaranteed money.

Opt out would be fine with me only if it is a mutual opt out. Then if he get injured or puts up another 2014, O's are protected. If he wants guaranteed dollars, then he doesn't get an opt out.