What kind of contract would Adam Jones get if he were a free agent right now?

[Frobby]

Jones took a pretty big discount during a contract year to remain here.

It really shows what he thinks of Baltimore.

It wasn't a contract year -- Jones signed in May 2012 and he wasn't going to be a free agent until after the 2013 season. Also, to that point in his career he was a .756 OPS hitter (101 OPS+). Since then, he has been an .804 OPS hitter (117 OPS+). So while the Jones contract has turned out extremely well for the Orioles, I don't think 6/$85 mm was a huge discount at the time. It was an appropriate discount for a guy who was still 1.7 seasons away from free agency. I'm glad he signed the extension and I do think it reflects that he was comfortable with the city and the direction of the team.

[Frobby]

Good point. He has been compared to Torii Hunter since he was in AAA and I think that still applies. The numbers above wouldn't scare away suitors IMO. I agree that the numbers above are a concern.

He'd have plenty of suitors -- happily for us, this thread is purely hypothetical. I do worry a bit about how Jones' body will hold up. He plays the game hard, and the wear and tear shows at times. He has always played with a lot of nagging injuries, and the fact that those kinds of injuries actually kept him off the field for 25 games last year tells you that he was really hurting. On the other hand, if he is able to stay a bit healthier this year, it would not surprise me to see those OBP and wRC+ numbers reverse course. I think his rate stats suffered a bit from stretches where he was playing hurt -- something that has happened several times in his career.

[srock]

Adam's new twitter pic.

FTW!

[Creamsicle]

Adam's new twitter pic.

FTW!

You listening CD???

[Frobby]

Just kind of an interesting topic to talk about as we debate Cespedes, Upton and Gordon.

Cespedes -- 30 years old in 2016, 15.8 career rWAR, 15.4 fWAR in 575 games (3/$75 mm, $27.5 mm in year one and an opt-out)

Upton -- 28 years old in 2016, 24.7 rWAR, 26.5 fWAR in 1184 games (6/$132.75, opt-out after 2 years)

Gordon -- 32 years old in 2016, 31.8 rWAR, 29.7 fWAR in 1136 games (4/$72 mm)

Jones -- 30 years old in 2016, 27.5 rWAR, 25.5 fWAR in 1242 games

I'd guess Jones would be in the 5/$100 mm range.

Revisiting this now that Cespedes, Upton and Gordon all have signed (not to mention Davis, 6/$161 mm with deferrals reducing value to $148.8 mm per MLB).

It's hard for me to say that Jones should get less than Davis, but based on the three OF's, I think he would have gotten a little less than Davis. The opt-outs have significant value so it is hard to just give a number of years and a dollar figure anymore. I'd guess Jones could have gotten 5/$110 with an opt-out after two years.

[srock]

Revisiting this now that Cespedes, Upton and Gordon all have signed (not to mention Davis, 6/$161 mm with deferrals reducing value to $148.8 mm per MLB).

It's hard for me to say that Jones should get less than Davis, but based on the three OF's, I think he would have gotten a little less than Davis. The opt-outs have significant value so it is hard to just give a number of years and a dollar figure anymore. I'd guess Jones could have gotten 5/$110 with an opt-out after two years.

If Adam signed with any other team, I put him right around what Upton got. Maybe a year less due to age, more money if no opt out, etc.

However, if he re-signed in Baltimore, Big Pete likely gives him 8/$200 paid over 42 years.

[Number5]

Revisiting this now that Cespedes, Upton and Gordon all have signed (not to mention Davis, 6/$161 mm with deferrals reducing value to $148.8 mm per MLB).

It's hard for me to say that Jones should get less than Davis, but based on the three OF's, I think he would have gotten a little less than Davis. The opt-outs have significant value so it is hard to just give a number of years and a dollar figure anymore. I'd guess Jones could have gotten 5/$110 with an opt-out after two years.

Is this true? I still haven't seen anything saying this. It was reported that MLB was using $128 million for luxury tax calculations. I haven't seen that changed in any reports. Now, I did see where the player's union was using the $147.8 million figure for their purposes, but that is not MLB's figure for luxury tax purposes, so far as I have seen. Please let me know if I have missed something.

[Frobby]

Is this true? I still haven't seen anything saying this. It was reported that MLB was using $128 million for luxury tax calculations. I haven't seen that changed in any reports. Now, I did see where the player's union was using the $147.8 million figure for their purposes, but that is not MLB's figure for luxury tax purposes, so far as I have seen. Please let me know if I have missed something.

You are right, it was $147.7 per the MLBPA, not the MLB. The article did not explain the purpose of assigning the value, or the method used to derive it, though it matches almost exactly the calculation by David Cameron that used the 4% discount factor that MLB and the MLBPA reportedly have agreed upon. The only place I saw the $128 mm was in an early tweet by one of the reporters (Olney?), and frankly, I do not believe it is accurate.

FWIW, the collective bargaining agreement has multiple provisions that refer to how the value of deferred compensation is to be calculated. So I assume the union was just following the stipulated formula.

[Ori-Al]

I think some of us are struggling to price free agents. Jones has no red flags. He is universally regarded as a leader, plays hard, "posts up every day". The analysts on ESPN and MLB talk about him glowingly every single time. This is both the straight analysts and the ex-players. All four of the players still out there have some sort of red flag. Not huge red flags but something. Gordon is health and age. Upton is his erratic production and the occasional rumors that he has dogged it in the past. Cespedes has the stuff we've been discussing. Davis is the erratic production the last 3 years along with the astronomical whiff rate. Make no mistake. Those issues along with the actual production and projections are priced into what these guys will get offered. The day of the good ole boy GM is long, long gone. These guys have sophisticated valuation models that factor in everything. The variance in offers typically comes down to free payroll, % payroll allocation to that player, and positional need.

Adam's intangibles along with his roughly equivalent production at a position of scarcity put him a clear step in front of the big four that are out there right now. He would get 6/138 to 7/175 with an opt out.

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Jones has one red flag, IMO - his poor plate discipline (he swings at a high percentage of non-strikes), which results in a poor OBP. About 20 of those flails per season lead to dribblers on the left side of the infield, which his speed enables him to beat out for infield hits. As he gets slower with age, he'll beat out fewer and fewer of those, lowering his average and OBP. He's shown no ability to improve his plate discipline.

This is why I hope the O's don't extend his contract. I love the leadership he provides, but someone else can be a leader after him.

[DrungoHazewood]

Jones has one red flag, IMO - his poor plate discipline (he swings at a high percentage of non-strikes), which results in a poor OBP. About 20 of those flails per season lead to dribblers on the left side of the infield, which his speed enables him to beat out for infield hits. As he gets slower with age, he'll beat out fewer and fewer of those, lowering his average and OBP. He's shown no ability to improve his plate discipline.

This is why I hope the O's don't extend his contract. I love the leadership he provides, but someone else can be a leader after him.

Jones does get maybe 20 infield hits a year. But Matt Wieters gets five or 10, and he is much slower and doesn't play as much. I don't think a potential loss of 4-6 infield hits a year is a deciding factor in a future contract.

[Herman]

The Orioles did the smart thing by locking him up early b/c he could easily get at least $120 million right now. It's hard to comprehend that Chris ".196" Davis is making twice as much as him.

[weams]

The Orioles did the smart thing by locking him up early b/c he could easily get at least $120 million right now. It's hard to comprehend that Chris ".196" Davis is making twice as much as him.

It's hard to comprehend that Chris "OPS+ 122 and 15.1 WAR as an Oriole" is paid well?

[Can_of_corn]

The Orioles did the smart thing by locking him up early b/c he could easily get at least $120 million right now. It's hard to comprehend that Chris ".196" Davis is making twice as much as him.

It is hard for me to comprehend how a fan savvy enough to use the internet can't understand the basic economic realities of baseball in the free agent era.

[Frobby]

It is hard for me to comprehend how a fan savvy enough to use the internet can't understand the basic economic realities of baseball in the free agent era.

I think it was pretty clear what Herman's trying to say. The O's locked up Jones early and in that case they are reaping the benefits. They didn't lock up Davis and they paid the price (literally). Of course, one of the years in Jones' deal wasn't an FA year, so that brings the price down, too.

[Can_of_corn]

I think it was pretty clear what Herman's trying to say. The O's locked up Jones early and in that case they are reaping the benefits. They didn't lock up Davis and they paid the price (literally). Of course, one of the years in Jones' deal wasn't an FA year, so that brings the price down, too.

I disagree.

I think what Herman is trying to say is that " I like Jones and Davis sucks because he hit under .200 that one year and he shouldn't be making more than the player I like.".

I am not willing to assign him a higher motive than simply wanting to take another shot at Davis.