Chris Davis - Career Home Runs - Where Does He End Up?

[Frobby]

I suppose it depends on the mood of the BBWAA in 15 years. Davis is sitting on 14.5 rWAR at age 30. Even with six really good years he's probably in the low-to-mid 40s. That's not even Jim Rice level, much less John Olerud, and not remotely in Alan Trammell or Lou Whitaker territory. Does a late-career HR run and narrative overcome Vet's Committe-level career value? If that happened 5-10 years ago 30-50% of the writers would just dismiss him as a PED freak.

I just hope we're having that discussion in 15 years. But to date, I haven't seen much sign that WAR decides HOF voting. Maybe that'll change in 15 years.

[DrungoHazewood]

I just hope we're having that discussion in 15 years. But to date, I haven't seen much sign that WAR decides HOF voting. Maybe that'll change in 15 years.

I would certainly hope so. If old guys dying doesn't bring positive change nothing will.

[Sanfran327]

I'll take an average of 30 a year for the life of his contract. Puts him at 413, which I think is low. I think it's more likely that he ends up in the 450-475 range, with an outside shot at 500 if he can still hit 25+ for another 2 years or so after this contract. It't not likely, and I wouldn't put money on it. Odds are better that he can't make consistent contact with the ball at that point, even if he still has the power. I'm rooting for him to hit a bunch though, as we all are.

[DrungoHazewood]

One more thing... I think the Favorite Toy overestimates Davis' odds. It uses three years to establish a baseline level of producution. That's reasonable, but it's also very optimistic in Davis' case. He's hit over 60% of his career homers in the past three years despite being 30. If the Toy says 469, I'd say more like 425 if someone put a gun to my head.

[DrungoHazewood]

Okay, yet another thing. Here's a different way to look at this. Davis had 203 homers in his 20s. Other folks who were around that number and where they ended up:

Rudy York, 203, 277

Yaz, 202, 452

Dave Kingman, 204, 442

Sheffield, 202, 509

Kent Hrbek, 201, 293

Del Ennis, 204, 288

Vern Stephens, 207, 247

Richie Sexson, 200, 306

Billy Willams, 197, 426

Derrek Lee, 208, 331

Jesse Barfield, 197, 241

Dean Palmer, 197, 275

Chuck Klein, 211, 300

The record for homers prior to 30 is ARod with 429. After 29 is Bonds with 503 and then Ruth with 430 and Raffy (!) with 414.

[tntoriole]

I suppose it depends on the mood of the BBWAA in 15 years. Davis is sitting on 14.5 rWAR at age 30. Even with six really good years he's probably in the low-to-mid 40s. That's not even Jim Rice level, much less John Olerud, and not remotely in Alan Trammell or Lou Whitaker territory. Does a late-career HR run and narrative overcome Vet's Committe-level career value? If that happened 5-10 years ago 30-50% of the writers would just dismiss him as a PED freak.

If he was a big part of a couple World Series championships, it would help him a lot. And us...lol.

[oriole]

How is one million not an option on this poll?

[DrungoHazewood]

If he was a big part of a couple World Series championships, it would help him a lot. And us...lol.

Sure, narrative often helps. David Ortiz would be a very, very fringy candidate if he'd played his career for the Brewers. Or the Orioles. Jeter would be viewed very differently as a Royal or an Angel.

[Orange]

Put me down for 446. His average over the past 3 years is 42... If you give him that for 4 more years and then drop it down to 25 per year for 3 more years and add it to his 203, you get 446.

Optimistic View: 2014 was too low only because of the TUE, so his average should look more like 50. Using the same math you can add 32 and if his last three years of the contract he gets 35 a year, that's 30 more... and there is a possibility of another year or two after this 7-year deal is up. That gets him over 500. Add a World Series MVP and he's in Cooperstown.

Pessimistic View: He requires the TUE to perform, even at the peak of his powers... which are likely to be the 28-30 years that we just witnessed. Plus, you know, oblique injuries and lifting up trucks and whatnot. And what happens if he gets suspended again? We could see him average only 30 a year for seven years. At that point he's got 413 career dingers and retires.

Truly, my optimistic view is pretty much the peak... but my pessimistic view could actually be a lot worse. But don't blame me... I love this signing! :hearts:

[Tx Oriole]

We can only hope he has the longevity of David Ortiz or Jim Thom and doesn't end up more in the class of Ryan Howard.

Sure do hope he is successful. It'd be terrible if he pulled a Ryan Howard.

[Spy Fox]

It'd be pretty sweet if Anderson is in 8th place going into 2017.

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Adam Jones will hit 17, sure, but it's pretty unrealistic to expect Hyun-Soo Kim to hit 210 HRs in his rookie season.

[Frobby]

Okay, yet another thing. Here's a different way to look at this. Davis had 203 homers in his 20s. Other folks who were around that number and where they ended up:

Rudy York, 203, 277

Yaz, 202, 452

Dave Kingman, 204, 442

Sheffield, 202, 509

Kent Hrbek, 201, 293

Del Ennis, 204, 288

Vern Stephens, 207, 247

Richie Sexson, 200, 306

Billy Willams, 197, 426

Derrek Lee, 208, 331

Jesse Barfield, 197, 241

Dean Palmer, 197, 275

Chuck Klein, 211, 300

The record for homers prior to 30 is ARod with 429. After 29 is Bonds with 503 and then Ruth with 430 and Raffy (!) with 414.

Breakdown: of the 13 on your list, 4 hit 400+, 6 were under 300, and 3 were in the 300-331 range. This supports the concern that sluggers don't tend to age that well. However, I think the fact that Davis hit so many between age 26-29 probably augurs in favor of him not falling into the sub-300 category.

[Redskins Rick]

Breakdown: of the 13 on your list, 4 hit 400+, 6 were under 300, and 3 were in the 300-331 range. This supports the concern that sluggers don't tend to age that well. However, I think the fact that Davis hit so many between age 26-29 probably augurs in favor of him not falling into the sub-300 category.

Hank Aaron was at the 386 mark at age 30, and hit 369, and at age 39, he hit 40.

It wasnt until his 41-43 years, that his power down to 42 over 3 years.

[Frobby]

Hank Aaron was at the 386 mark at age 30, and hit 369, and at age 39, he hit 40.

It wasnt until his 41-43 years, that his power down to 42 over 3 years.

Yes, there are exceptions. I think Drungo's list is pretty representative of the distribution I would have expected. The concern is that a sizeable percentage had a very large dropoff (not just a minor one) in their 30's. If Davis hits another 120 homers, he's at the median outcome, and that would not be a good value at $161 mm.

[TonySoprano]

I'm guesstimating an average of 30 HRs/ year over the course of the contract bringing him above 400.