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Fangraphs identifies Wieters, Trumbo as having HR/FB upside

Frobby

By Frobby
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Fangraphs has an article up that compares players' expected HR/FB rate in 2015, based on average distance and launch angle, compared to actual HR/FB rate. Matt Wieters and Mark Trumbo are among eight players identified for whom a HR jump seems likely.

Matt Wieters' recovery from TJ surgery dragged on longer than expected last year, but that should be over with now and he should be good to go. Even without the injury concerns, many are going to be concerned about the performance -- a .155 ISO is his lowest since 2010. But, his 300+ distance was the highest of his career and the first time he even breached the 290 level. Don't worry about the performance.

* * *

After swatting 30+ homers in 2012 and 2013, Mark Trumbo has launched just 36 home runs in the last two seasons combined. Hit ISO has dropped below .200 and HR/FB rate fallen from around 21% to 14% and change. But his distance is right around where he has sat every single year, while both his AAA and SDD marked new career bests. In fact, that xHR/FB rate was also a career high. You know what's cool? He takes a power profile that likely would have yielded better results regardless of park to an Orioles home field that boosts right-handed home runs. A return to a 20% HR/FB rate isn't so far-fetched.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/8-hitters-with-major-hrfb-upside/

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CaptainRedbeard All-Star

CaptainRedbeard

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Other relevant Orioles notes from this article, which I liked alot:

-Jones didn't make the cut for the body of the article but he still ran a -5.1% delta, which is pretty large. That's a god sign that his power isn't eroding.

-Manny was right about on par with his xHR/FB%, and actually a little under it (-1.9%), so his 35 HR season doesn't look fluky and there is even some room for growth.

-Like Manny, Schoop is also on the list (-2.9%). That power he showed is real, not that anybody doubted it.

-Joseph and Hardy are also on the list, with some modest upside.

-The only projected starter not on the list is Davis, meaning his 29.4% HR/FB is above his xHR/FB%, which is not surprising because that's astronomically high. He may be featured in the corresponding article expecting some downside. That said, he has a career 23.8% HR/FB, which is still monstrous.

Also, Davis has a 27.8% HR/FB over the past 3 years. That's stupid high. Second place over that time period (min 1500 PA) is Pedro Alvarez, all the way down at 24.5%, then Cruz, at 23.7%. Only 3 more players are even above 20% (Goldschmidt, Harper, Carter - Stanton is below that 1500 PA threshold but comes in at 26.0%). That's some true 80-grade power.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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-The only projected starter not on the list is Davis, meaning his 29.4% HR/FB is above his xHR/FB%, which is not surprising because that's astronomically high. He may be featured in the corresponding article expecting some downside. That said, he has a career 23.8% HR/FB, which is still monstrous.

Also, Davis has a 27.8% HR/FB over the past 3 years. That's stupid high. Second place over that time period (min 1500 PA) is Pedro Alvarez, all the way down at 24.5%, then Cruz, at 23.7%. Only 3 more players are even above 20% (Goldschmidt, Harper, Carter - Stanton is below that 1500 PA threshold but comes in at 26.0%). That's some true 80-grade power.

And as we know, Davis was robbed by leaping catches at the fence five times last year.

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SpinJr Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

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Also, Davis has a 27.8% HR/FB over the past 3 years. That's stupid high. Second place over that time period (min 1500 PA) is Pedro Alvarez, all the way down at 24.5%, then Cruz, at 23.7%. Only 3 more players are even above 20% (Goldschmidt, Harper, Carter - Stanton is below that 1500 PA threshold but comes in at 26.0%). That's some true 80-grade power.

How many more years does he have to do it before you call it repeatable? The guy is crazy strong. Will he do this for the life of his contract, probably not. However, I think he could for 3 or 4 years.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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How many more years does he have to do it before you call it repeatable? The guy is crazy strong. Will he do this for the life of his contract, probably not. However, I think he could for 3 or 4 years.

I am more worried about his contact rate going down than I am about his HR/FB dropping off.

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SpinJr Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

SpinJr

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I am more worried about his contact rate going down than I am about his HR/FB dropping off.

Let's hope that too lasts 3-4 as well. I dint think their mutually exclusive that's for sure.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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CaptainRedbeard All-Star

CaptainRedbeard

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How many more years does he have to do it before you call it repeatable? The guy is crazy strong. Will he do this for the life of his contract, probably not. However, I think he could for 3 or 4 years.

Because of the extreme nature of his performance in HR/FB%, it's extremely hard to project. He's likely an outlier, and the regression analysis isn't going to accurately capture his true talent level. However, it's only a matter of time until he doesn't have 80-grade power anymore. He can't sustain it his entire career and it's only downhill from here, given his age. He may be able to keep his plateau for a few more years but I would expect him to be at a point where he's much closer to 20% than the 27% he has been at the last 3 years.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I think I will. [emoji1] Tx I didn't know I had to join to edit.

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Yeah, you get several privileges. Back in the day you had to pay past 500 posts or you were gonesville. Now Tony gives membership free, but you lose a few of the functions once you are around long enough to know if you like the joint. If you do sign up, do the paypal signup, not the ccbill. You'll be happier. Thanks.

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