Player debuts 2011-15

[Frobby]

This morning I had a look at all the players who debuted in the majors over the last five years, 2011-16. I put together this data:

Total debuts: 1,133 (37.8 per team)

Total debuts of players who have averaged 2 WAR per season or more: 70 (2.3 per team)

Total debuts of players who have averaged 1 WAR per season or more: 186 (6.2 per team)

Total debuts of players who totaled 2.0 WAR or higher: 229 (7.6 per team)

Total debuts of players who totaled more than 0.0 WAR: 612 (20.4 per team)

Here's how the Orioles stack up:

2+ WAR per season: Machado, Chen

1+ WAR per season: Those two plus Gonzalez, Britton, Joseph, and Givens

2+ WAR total: those six plus Gausman

More than 0.0 WAR: those eight plus Blake Davis, Florimon, Socolovich, Pomeranz, Hoes, Flaherty, Steve Johnson, Bundy, Schoop, McFarland, Drake and Wilson.

A few other debuts of note:

2+ WAR per season: EdRod

2+ WAR total: EdRod

More than 0.0 WAR: Davies, Wada

Overall, I think I'd characterize our production as slightly subpar but not atrocious, but still disappointing considering our draft position up though 2012. We'd certainly look a lot worse if we hadn't signed Chen and Gonzalez, and we'd look better if we hadn't traded EdRod and Davies (though we don't know how EdRod would have developed had he stayed here).

[Ohfan67]

Interesting analysis. That paints a better picture than I would have predicted. Actually significantly better.

[Can_of_corn]

Interesting analysis. That paints a better picture than I would have predicted. Actually significantly better.

A major league regular should be producing at ~2 WAR annually.

[Frobby]

On a quick look, here are a few details about our AL East competition:

Yankees

2+ WAR per season: Tanaka

1+ WAR per season: Severino, Solarte, Warren, Betances

Red Sox

2+ WAR per season: Betts, EdRod

1+ WAR per season: Shaw, Bogaerts

Rays

2+ WAR per season: Kiermeyer, Archer

1+ WAR per season: Mahtook, Vogt, Cobb

Blue Jays

2+ WAR per season: Travis, Y. Gomes, Lawrie, Alvarez (also traded Syndergaard)

1+ WAR per season: Osuna, Sanchez, Strohman, Pillar

[Frobby]

A major league regular should be producing at ~2 WAR annually.

I think what this analysis does is give some feel for how often one should expect an organization to produced a major league regular (including pitchers who are decent starters). Bottom line, if you are producing one every other year, you are doing well. That said, not every player becomes a starter right away, and I did not account for when during the season a player debuted. For example, Xander Bogaerts only played 18 games in 2013, but I counted him as having played for three years, so he doesn't meet the 2+ WAR/season threshold, but he would meet it if I counted him as having played for only two years.

[Can_of_corn]

I think what this analysis does is give some feel for how often one should expect an organization to produced a major league regular (including pitchers who are decent starters). Bottom line, if you are producing one every other year, you are doing well. That said, not every player becomes a starter right away, and I did not account for when during the season a player debuted. For example, Xander Bogaerts only played 18 games in 2013, but I counted him as having played for three years, so he doesn't meet the 2+ WAR/season threshold, but he would meet it if I counted him as having played for only two years.

I was just trying to give the numbers a bit more context is all.

It was a nice piece of work to produce it.

[Frobby]

I was just trying to give the numbers a bit more context is all.

Yes, I appreciated that. It was helpful.

I'm hopeful that Schoop will eventually join the list of players who average 2+ WAR per year. He only played 5 games in 2013, and he missed almost half of last season with an injury. Now that I look at it, I mistakenly included him as averaging 1+ WAR per season (2.9 in "3" years). So I've moved him to the "over 0.0" category. He's a better player than that implies. I'm sure there are others on the other AL East teams of whom you could say the same, who either debuted late in a season, or have missed significant time with injury, or both.

[Can_of_corn]

Yes, I appreciated that. It was helpful.

I'm hopeful that Schoop will eventually join the list of players who average 2+ WAR per year. He only played 5 games in 2013, and he missed almost half of last season with an injury. Now that I look at it, I mistakenly included him as averaging 1+ WAR per season (2.9 in "3" years). So I've moved him to the "over 0.0" category. He's a better player than that implies. I'm sure there are others on the other AL East teams of whom you could say the same, who either debuted late in a season, or have missed significant time with injury, or both.

I'd consider culling out September call ups.

[Frobby]

I'd consider culling out September call ups.

Yeah, but it's too much work for me to go through the 1,133 players and determine which of them were September call-ups, and wherever you draw the line, there will be someone just outside it (Bogaerts, for example, got called up on August 20, 2013). So, I'm just going to leave it as is.

[Frobby]

Other Oriole debuts, at 0.0 WAR or below: Wright, Navarro, Garcia, Alvarez, Walker, Urrutia, Clark, Belfiore, Mahoney, Exposito, Avery, Angle, Adams.

So overall, we debuted 32 players (league average 37.7), of whom 19 were over 0.0 WAR (league average 20.4).

It would be interesting to study how many of the debuts league-wide are of players who were with the team that originally drafted or signed them, etc., and how many were older guys just getting a cup of coffee.