Jayson Stark on Manny

[El Gordo]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/manny-machado-is-also-amazing/

Yes but he is now merely an average fielder.

[CaptainRedbeard]

You know this is the major leagues right? Baseball doesn't get played better. An average 3B in the majors can make some exceptional plays. He looks average now defensively compared to his MLB peers.

This post would be in the Hall of Fame of Spectacularly Incorrect Internet Message Board Comments, if one existed. HOFOSIIMBC.

Maybe I'll make one. With 99.7% of the vote (nobody can have 100%, remember), calmunderfire's "Manny Machado is an Average Defensive 3B" post on 4/21/16 is in the inaugural class. Congratulations!

[CaptainRedbeard]

Everyone's a critic.

To make a comparison across eras, I posted OPS+ figures in my earlier post that compared the three through their age 22 seasons. Another poster supplanted my post you are quoting by adding OPS+. The conclusion is the same, though the numbers are a bit closer than using raw OPS.

Going back to the ARod/Cabrera comparisons, this was in the fangraphs piece:

Harper and Trout get plenty of attention, given what they?ve done in their careers. Donaldson is the reigning AL MVP. But right there with them is Manny Machado, hanging out with the best the game has to offer, and more than holding his own. This guy is in that class, which is what happens when you hit like Miguel Cabrera and field like a gold glover.

This is in the context of Cameron citing that Manny now has a 153 wRC+ over the past 365 days.

Miguel Cabrera had a 153 wRC+ in his 4th season in the league, in 2006, when he was 23. He has a career 152 wRC+. Maybe Manny wasn't quite Cabrera from ages 20-22, but he sure looks like him now.

[DrungoHazewood]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/manny-machado-is-also-amazing/

But imagine if he wasn't a self-absorbed guy concentrating on that big contract with the Yanks in a few years and instead worked on his fielding?

[BohKnowsBmore]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/manny-machado-is-also-amazing/

Good write up, thanks for sharing.

[foxfield]

You know this is the major leagues right? Baseball doesn't get played better. An average 3B in the majors can make some exceptional plays. He looks average now defensively compared to his MLB peers.

The bolded part of this is true. If you consider his MLB peers to be those guys in the Hall of Fame already who no longer play.

[waroriole]

The bolded part of this is true. If you consider his MLB peers to be those guys in the Hall of Fame already who no longer play.

Right. If we're comparing him to Beltre and Brooks, I guess he's average.

[Frobby]

That was a special play.

I think the truth is somewhere in between. Manny ain't what he used to be at his best, but he's still an upper tier MLB 3Bman. It's just that he used to be clearly the best MLB 3Bman.

This is how he's looking to me. I've seen 2-3 balls get by him that wouldn't have eluded him in 2012-14, but he is still a top-tier defender.

By the way, Dave Cameron has taken notice:

On Monday, we talked a bit about Bryce Harper, and the fact that he is making a legitimate run at Mike Trout for the title of best player in baseball. Harper is somehow building off of last year?s dominant season, and at 23, he?s taking his remarkable performance up another level. But Harper isn?t the only 23 year old superstar playing near the beltway, and remarkably, he hasn?t even been the best player in the area this year. That title belongs to Manny Machado.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/manny-machado-is-also-amazing/

(Oops, I see a link was posted already.)

[Frobby]

Going back to the ARod/Cabrera comparisons, this was in the fangraphs piece:

Harper and Trout get plenty of attention, given what they've done in their careers. Donaldson is the reigning AL MVP. But right there with them is Manny Machado, hanging out with the best the game has to offer, and more than holding his own. This guy is in that class, which is what happens when you hit like Miguel Cabrera and field like a gold glover.

This is in the context of Cameron citing that Manny now has a 153 wRC+ over the past 365 days.

Miguel Cabrera had a 153 wRC+ in his 4th season in the league, in 2006, when he was 23. He has a career 152 wRC+. Maybe Manny wasn't quite Cabrera from ages 20-22, but he sure looks like him now.

Manny has looked spectacular at the plate in the first 13 games. I hope that at the end of the year, I'll be saying that he's every bit as good a hitter as Cabrera was at 23. I just need to see him put up Cabrera-like numbers all year. Manny had an 20-game stretch last year where he hit .415/.473/.756, so we know what he's capable of when he's red hot.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Manny has looked spectacular at the plate in the first 13 games. I hope that at the end of the year, I'll be saying that he's every bit as good a hitter as Cabrera was at 23. I just need to see him put up Cabrera-like numbers all year. Manny had an 20-game stretch last year where he hit .415/.473/.756, so we know what he's capable of when he's red hot.

I don't disagree with you overall, but it's worth noting that the numbers in the post you are quoting refer to the past 365 days, not just the first 13 games.

[Frobby]

I don't disagree with you overall, but it's worth noting that the numbers in the post you are quoting refer to the past 365 days, not just the first 13 games.

Fair enough, but it's kind of cherry-picking to do that. Last year Manny started off cold (.475 OPS in his first 13 games). This year he's started off hot. I'm sure he will have cold spells at times this year. Hopefully, they'll be shorter than 13 games and not as severe. That's what he needs to do to reach the very top echelon as a hitter.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Fair enough, but it's kind of cherry-picking to do that. Last year Manny started off cold (.475 OPS in his first 13 games). This year he's started off hot. I'm sure he will have cold spells at times this year. Hopefully, they'll be shorter than 13 games and not as severe. That's what he needs to do to reach the very top echelon as a hitter.

I wouldn't call it cherrypicking considering it's simply the last one year period, rather than something like "since June 6, 2015..." Point taken, though. I agree, he needs to keep up the high level for sustained periods with minimal downs, but I think there's certainly reason to be optimistic.

[tntoriole]

That was a special play.

I think the truth is somewhere in between. Manny ain't what he used to be at his best, but he's still an upper tier MLB 3Bman. It's just that he used to be clearly the best MLB 3Bman.

Disagree with this. How does somebody like Manny at 23 become "not what he used to be?" Didn't happen with Brooks or Schmidt or Ron Santos or Beltre and it isn't the case with Manny. He remains the best third baseman in baseball, imho.

[srock]

Someone doesn't understand the Kelvin scale.

Manny is measured in Danzigs. I put him at 8 Danzigs at this moment.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Fair enough, but it's kind of cherry-picking to do that. Last year Manny started off cold (.475 OPS in his first 13 games). This year he's started off hot. I'm sure he will have cold spells at times this year. Hopefully, they'll be shorter than 13 games and not as severe. That's what he needs to do to reach the very top echelon as a hitter.

I think the point of using "past 365 games," which is something Cameron likes to use a lot, is that the beginning and end of a season are sort of arbitrary endpoints. It's an objective standard to just say the past year, and you can do it at any point in the season. It's true in Manny's case it happens to chop off a cold spell and include his incredibly hot start. But his incredibly hot start still counts - I suspect that if you add it to his full season from last year, it's not far off Cabrera.

Cameron made a lot of points in that article that show it looks like Manny is still improving. Which is amazing. His plate discipline stats look nearly identical to next year, which was what drove his breakout. If anything, he's decreased his O-Contact while keeping Z-Contact constant, which means his balls hit in play have more authority. Now he's adding a lot more balls in the air, with more power. And he already hit 35 homers last year.

I'm not ready to anoint Manny equal to Miguel Cabrera with the bat yet. That's a VERY high bar. Miguel Cabrera is one of the best hitters of all time. But there are reasons - a lot of them - that in the near future it won't sound at all farfetched.