Jayson Stark on Manny

[Can_of_corn]

I dunno, whatever. Sure.

You can not assume that a healthy Manny would, in a full season, outproduce what a healthy Manny produced in a partial season.

OPS doesn't care about counting stats in that fashion.

It is not as if he was playing injured.

[TradeAngelos]

Manny may not out perform his FA contract like Adam has.

If healthy that would probably be impossible. Manny has the ability to reach levels that Jones will never come close to, perhaps for multiple years in the next 5.

He throws up an 7-8 win season (or a couple, which is very possible), while only making 10m in arb/new deal....15m...or even 35m in a FA year, he is netting you a TON of excess value.

As absolutely crazy as it sounds, he should have no problem covering 35-40m a year if a win is 9m, and by the time his contract is up probably 11m.

Pay him now, pay him whatever it takes and be done with it if the decision is to keep him. He will be worth every penny and more, he is just that good.

[MurphDogg]

You can not assume that a healthy Manny would, in a full season, outproduce what a healthy Manny produced in a partial season.

OPS doesn't care about counting stats in that fashion.

It is not as if he was playing injured.

An argument could be made that Manny was improving with each additional game and the half-season he missed in 2014 paused that improvement.

Further, one could argue that rehabbing the knees each offseason prevented additional theoretical improvement that would have otherwise occurred.

While OPS doesn't care about counting stats, the fact that Manny was injured and spent two offseasons rehabbing those injuries should factor in.

[Can_of_corn]

An argument could be made that Manny was improving with each additional game and the half-season he missed in 2014 paused that improvement.

Further, one could argue that rehabbing the knees each offseason prevented additional theoretical improvement that would have otherwise occurred.

While OPS doesn't care about counting stats, the fact that Manny was injured and spent two offseasons rehabbing those injuries should factor in.

I mentioned that actually. dan-O didn't.

Be pretty hard to prove. Just like while there is a clear progression in 2014 it isn't really provable that it would have continued. Too much static in the signal.

You certainly can't assume his numbers would have improved with more games played.

[MurphDogg]

I mentioned that actually. dan-O didn't.

Be pretty hard to prove. Just like while there is a clear progression in 2014 it isn't really provable that it would have continued. Too much static in the signal.

Absolutely. Just throwing out the possibility.

[brianod]

I'm skeptical of the "big haul" argument. There are probably only a few teams that can afford Manny and those teams are already signing free agents at the expense of their farm system

[Can_of_corn]

I'm skeptical of the "big haul" argument. There are probably only a few teams that can afford Manny and those teams are already signing free agents at the expense of their farm system

I think there is enough money in the game that there is a number of teams that could make room for his salary.

When constructing a roster it is pretty nice to be able to consolidate 5-6 wins in a single roster slot.

[brianod]

I think there is enough money in the game that there is a number of teams that could make room for his salary.

When constructing a roster it is pretty nice to be able to consolidate 5-6 wins in a single roster slot.

Yes, but would you give 350/400 for Manny AND decimate your farm system when you could spend that money on the best free agents without giving up prospects?

[Can_of_corn]

Yes, but would you give 350/400 for Manny AND decimate your farm system when you could spend that money on the best free agents without giving up prospects?

I can see a situation where I might do that. If ownership was on board.

Of course if a team were to trade for Manny the idea might just be to open a two year window then let him walk.

[brianod]

I can see a situation where I might do that. If ownership was on board.

Of course if a team were to trade for Manny the idea might just be to open a two year window then let him walk.

I think either way, there is too much risk on the team getting Manny to get us a " large haul". The risk equation for the Orioles is also very high in that can't miss prospects often do just that. This is hard all around...

[Can_of_corn]

I think either way, there is too much risk on the team getting Manny to get us a " large haul". The risk equation for the Orioles is also very high in that can't miss prospects often do just that. This is hard all around...

I can see the logic that, if the team is an honest contender, that you roll the dice and take the pick at the end.

If the team isn't an honest contender then they should be able to get a lot more for him than a late first round pick.

[tntoriole]

I don't think you can be in the players union AND have ownership stake in the team. I don't know this for fact, but whats the point of a union if this starts happening?

Just pay the man his money!

Ummm...it was just humor.

[LookitsPuck]

The proper plan should have been:

1. Resign Cruz prior to 2015 season

2. Let Davis walk, keep the pick

3. Not sign Gallardo, keep the pick

4. Extend Machado. Whatever it takes. If not...*

5. Sign Latos

6. Trade Clevenger for Trumbo when Wieters (for some odd reason) accepted the QO

7. Count 2016 as a rebuilding year (Bundy, Gausman, Givens, Wright, Wilson)

8. Reload the farm with the 7+ draft picks you now have due to not signing Davis and Gallardo

9. Let Matusz go

10. In 2017, take the money saved from not signing Davis and Wieters and sign an elite pitcher.

11. Don't cut Gonzo

*If Machado doesn't extend, then you have 3 years left out of him. You need to make the decision whether or not 2017 or 2018 is going to be special. If it's not, I think you have to strongly look into trading Machado for a ridiculously large haul.

[Can_of_corn]

The proper plan should have been:

1. Resign Cruz prior to 2015 season

2. Let Davis walk, keep the pick

3. Not sign Gallardo, keep the pick

4. Extend Machado. Whatever it takes. If not...*

5. Sign Latos

6. Trade Clevenger for Trumbo when Wieters (for some odd reason) accepted the QO

7. Count 2016 as a rebuilding year (Bundy, Gausman, Givens, Wright, Wilson)

8. Reload the farm with the 7+ draft picks you now have due to not signing Davis and Gallardo

9. Let Matusz go

10. In 2017, take the money saved from not signing Davis and Wieters and sign an elite pitcher.

11. Don't cut Gonzo

*If Machado doesn't extend, then you have 3 years left out of him. You need to make the decision whether or not 2017 or 2018 is going to be special. If it's not, I think you have to strongly look into trading Machado for a ridiculously large haul.

Did you let O'Day walk?

[MurphDogg]

The proper plan should have been:

1. Resign Cruz prior to 2015 season

2. Let Davis walk, keep the pick

3. Not sign Gallardo, keep the pick

4. Extend Machado. Whatever it takes. If not...*

5. Sign Latos

6. Trade Clevenger for Trumbo when Wieters (for some odd reason) accepted the QO

7. Count 2016 as a rebuilding year (Bundy, Gausman, Givens, Wright, Wilson)

8. Reload the farm with the 7+ draft picks you now have due to not signing Davis and Gallardo

9. Let Matusz go

10. In 2017, take the money saved from not signing Davis and Wieters and sign an elite pitcher.

11. Don't cut Gonzo

*If Machado doesn't extend, then you have 3 years left out of him. You need to make the decision whether or not 2017 or 2018 is going to be special. If it's not, I think you have to strongly look into trading Machado for a ridiculously large haul.

Why would you resign Cruz if 2016 is going to be a rebuilding year? And why sign Latos?