Jump to content

Givens' BABIP is .727

CaptainRedbeard

By CaptainRedbeard
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

CaptainRedbeard All-Star

CaptainRedbeard

Posted
Posted

Lots of chirping on the OH that Givens has not looked good, has not been sharp, and potentially could get sent down. There's plenty to complain about from tonight's game but none of it should be directed at Givens. He's been dealing with some otherworldly bad misfortune on balls in play that is masking the fact that he's continued to dominate hitters just the same way he did last year.

Here's the stats: 5.2 IP, 13 K's, 2 BB's. And a .727 BABIP. That's insane! He's got a 20.65 K/9 to a 3.18 BB/9 and somehow a 6.35 ERA. His FIP 2.45 and his xFIP is 1.23.

Has Givens allowed some hard hit balls and might he have some problems with lefties that didn't plague him last year? Sure. But his velocity is fine (93.8 before today; 94.3 last year) and he's getting absolutely unlucky on balls in play. That will even out over the course of the season.

MacFarland's a long reliever and Buck was stupid to leave Gallardo in and go to TJ tonight, not to mention using Brach, O'Day, and Britton in a blowout yesterday and not today with a likely rainout tomorrow, but don't worry about Givens. He's still the man.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CaptainRedbeard All-Star

CaptainRedbeard

Posted
  • Author
Posted
He is making bad pitches like Palmer touched on during the post game. You are going to have a worse BABIP when you are pitching in the middle of the plate.

Even so, .727 is literally twice as high as you would expect even if he was making horrendous pitches. The worst BABIPs allowed for pitchers are around .350. Givens was .268 last year. This is the sort of thing that only happens in tiny samples and people shouldn't be overreacting to it.

If anything, his K% should be a huge positive. He's missing a crazy number of bats.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CaptainRedbeard All-Star

CaptainRedbeard

Posted
  • Author
Posted
I'm 100 percent confident in his ability to get out righties. But given his pitching motion and repertoire it's not a surprise that he struggles against lefties.

Lefties have a 1.000 BABIP against him so far. Not a single ball put in play by a lefty has been converted into an out. It's not going to keep being this bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CaptainRedbeard All-Star

CaptainRedbeard

Posted
  • Author
Posted
I'm not worried about Givens.

MacFarland on the other hand is not one of the top seven bullpen arms our organization has to offer. Probably not one of the ten best. I like my bullpen guys to miss bats.

MacFarland is pretty good as a lefty long reliever who can pitch multiple innings. It actually helps in that role that you can get some quick outs with grounders. That should be his role and it should be limited to that only.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ChuckS Hangout Grand Counsel

ChuckS

Posted
Posted
MacFarland is pretty good as a lefty long reliever who can pitch multiple innings. It actually helps in that role that you can get some quick outs with grounders. That should be his role and it should be limited to that only.

His value is only that of a long reliever, but we already have several of those. And of one them, Worley, can't be optioned and is needed for rotation depth. I don't see him having a purpose on this team when Matusz comes back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CaptainRedbeard All-Star

CaptainRedbeard

Posted
  • Author
Posted
His value is only that of a long reliever, but we already have several of those. And of one them, Worley, can't be optioned and is needed for rotation depth. I don't see him having a purpose on this team when Matusz comes back.

I agree. If Worley's in the rotation, I think I actually prefer MacFarland to Wilson as the long reliever because he's left handed and I'd rather Wilson work as a starter. But having Wilson, Bundy, and MacFarland in the pen is redundant. We need Matusz to come back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted

Are we really going to discuss BABIP based on 11 balls in play? I don't find it hard to believe that 8 of 11 balls hit in play were hit hard and to the right spots. If you're missing your spots over a small sample, that can happen, and it's not necessarily luck.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
I think it was a reaction for people saying he should be sent down which seems ridiculous to me. He hasn't been good overall but he's been dominant at times and has a chance to be one of our best relievers this year. I don't send a guy like that down after 5.2 so so innings.

The only reason there's talk of sending Givens down is because he has options, and because our starters are so weak that we have a lot of need for long relief. There may be pragmatic reasons to send him down even if we think he's one of our best 7 relievers over 162 games, recognizing that circumstances will probably bring him back.

That said, I'd probably send McFarland down when Matusz returns.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Phantom Major Leaguer

Phantom

Posted
Posted
Are we really going to discuss BABIP based on 11 balls in play? I don't find it hard to believe that 8 of 11 balls hit in play were hit hard and to the right spots. If you're missing your spots over a small sample, that can happen, and it's not necessarily luck.

I think judging that he is "missing his spots" after such a small sample is a bit ridiculous. His hard hit percentage is up 12% from last season, which is what, one hit? One of the first stats to stabilize is K/BB, so at this point, I think it's bad luck.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted

F

I think judging that he is "missing his spots" after such a small sample is a bit ridiculous. His hard hit percentage is up 12% from last season, which is what, one hit? One of the first stats to stabilize is K/BB, so at this point, I think it's bad luck.

To clarify, I'm not judging the reasons for Givens' high BABIP one way or the other. I'm just saying that 11 batted balls is such a small sample that you can't necessarily call it luck. Stabilizing quickly is one thing, but nothing is stable over 11 discrete plays.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • interloper
      ALWC Game 1 Attendance

      By interloper · Posted

      I went to a few games this year, but here are the reasons I didn't go to the WC games: The team had been an absolute bummer to watch for 3 entire months out of the season and to be honest by the time the playoffs got here I was exhausted and annoyed. The brand of baseball they had been employing for half the season (over-reliance on the home run, terrible ABs, iffy defense) frankly sucked to watch, even on TV, and I'm already spending money to watch them on TV. I wanted them to prove they could get past the WC round before I shelled out more money. I imagine a lot of people share these reasons with me. 
    • LookitsPuck
      ALWC Game 1 Attendance

      By LookitsPuck · Posted

      People whining about 41k attendance and blaming it on the city have no idea what they're talking about.  Why were there 47k+ of Game 1 against the Rangers last year? Did the city all of a sudden not matter then? It was also a day game. Alas, it was on a Saturday. And they had that locked up for awhile. Why has attendance went up YoY? Look at the Astros and the Brewers. They had *less* people at their G1 games. Is Milwaukee not a nice city? Is Houston not a nice city?  This is pretty simple. It was a day game during a weekday with crappy weather coming off a pretty lackluster performance going into the playoffs. And folks didn't know if there'd even be a home game until, what, barely a week before?  People like winners. Miami is an awesome city. They got a new stadium when it first opened. But guess what? That team stunk in fairly short order upon stadium opening and attendance tanked. 
    • LookitsPuck
      Hyde: No Idea if Suarez Will Be Back

      By LookitsPuck · Posted

      Would love to bring him back on a 1 year deal for anywhere from $3-$7m.  Great depth arm. Don't pencil him into the 5th starter role. This club needs to pickup two starters: a TOR arm and a BOR arm. Have an open competition for the 5th spot. If Suarez doesn't make it, he'd be a great middle reliever arm. Open competition between Free Agent, Suarez, Povich, McDermott, and Rogers. Do not just go into 2025 penciling Rogers into any role. 
    • Orioles West
      What's Your Top Priority

      By Orioles West · Posted

      It's really tough to set a top priority when I don't know what the budget is. I think the new ownership group will be investing more than the previous regime, I just don't know by how much. I highly doubt the O's will ever be in the "spend whatever it takes mode" like the Mets a couple years ago or the standard yearly overspending by the Dodgers or Yanks. It's still tough to make my Christmas list without knowing the balance sheet. If we're the Dodgers, we keep Burnes and Tony Taters. Hopes and wishes it is then: Even if we sign Burnes, which I wouldn't mind at least making a run at him, I think we need another starter, because injuries and how this year went. Even if the Mountain returns healthy, we need high leverage help in the pen. Veteran bat - no idea who, but if Mullins and Santander leave, we will have to add someone -- I don't know that our prospects will be stepping up or stepping back next year.
    • Aristotelian
      Who Stays and Who Goes Early Guess

      By Aristotelian · Posted

      What I like about Webb is he has an excellent changeup and can get LHB's out. Besides Felix, everyone else in the bullpen needs to be matched up. I think it is important to have another reliable guy who can be brought in to any situation. He is also cheap. I think he is too valuable to just give him away to another team. I like him better than Perez for sure. 
    • 1fingerwillie
      Who Stays and Who Goes Early Guess

      By 1fingerwillie · Posted

      Possibly Beavers as well...
    • gamiliel
      ALWC Game 1 Attendance

      By gamiliel · Posted

      Bingo....I have said this before also. Wives of players are not clamoring to come near B-More. Factor in taxes and its a hard sell.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...