Givens' BABIP is .727

[Phantom]

F

To clarify, I'm not judging the reasons for Givens' high BABIP one way or the other. I'm just saying that 11 batted balls is such a small sample that you can't necessarily call it luck. Stabilizing quickly is one thing, but nothing is stable over 11 discrete plays.

I completely agree. My point is, even the thing that stabilizes earliest is pointing at this being luck, so our first second and third conclusions should all be to withhold judgment.

[CaptainRedbeard]

F

To clarify, I'm not judging the reasons for Givens' high BABIP one way or the other. I'm just saying that 11 batted balls is such a small sample that you can't necessarily call it luck. Stabilizing quickly is one thing, but nothing is stable over 11 discrete plays.

Whatever you want to call it, the fact that he has 13 strikeouts and 11 balls in play is extremely impressive. My point in highlighting his BABIP is that it so high that it would be impossible for him to continue to pitch the way he has. He's certainly "earned" many of those balls in play landing for hits, but it's essentially impossible over a large sample to simultaneously pitch well enough to strike out over half of the batters you face while being battered like a pinata by the other half.

He's made a bunch of bad pitches and deserves a high BABIP but he's also racking up a ton of strikeouts and not walking anybody. The number of bad pitches/BABIP luck (it's a combination of both) won't continue at anything like this rate, but there's a lot more predictive power in the K's and swinging strikes.

It's true that there are scenarios where you option a player who's one of your 12 best pitchers because he's the one with options. But if you have any faith in Givens' ability to stop allowing hits on nearly every ball put in play, he's not even on the borderline. He's demonstrated the potential to be an absolutely elite reliever, better than everybody in the pen except for O'Day and Britton, and that's not the kind of guy you send out for 15 days (even with the possibility of an injury that allows you to recall them early).

[Frobby]

I think your points are valid. Givens certainly has the potential to be an elite reliever.

I will observe this, however: he strikes out a lot more RHB (11 of 20 this year, 28 of 74 last year) than RHB (2 of 8 this year, 10 of 4 this year). His high BABIP this year largely comes from LHB, who have six hits off him (including three doubles) in six balls in play. Something to keep an eye on.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I think your points are valid. Givens certainly has the potential to be an elite reliever.

I will observe this, however: he strikes out a lot more RHB (11 of 20 this year, 28 of 74 last year) than RHB (2 of 8 this year, 10 of 4 this year). His high BABIP this year largely comes from LHB, who have six hits off him (including three doubles) in six balls in play. Something to keep an eye on.

He's definitely much stronger vs. righties than lefties. That's not all that surprising given his delivery, but he should be good enough vs. lefties to still be an elite reliever. Many FB/SL righty power relievers have big splits and that doesn't hold them back too much.

[eddie83]

I get the use of these numbers but I get frustrated sometimes that people aren't seeing the obvious. The bottom line is he is missing his location, it isn't that complicated. Now maybe he is due for some hard hits outs but the bottom line is he hasn't pitched as well so far.

[TouchemAll]

He is making bad pitches like Palmer touched on during the post game. You are going to have a worse BABIP when you are pitching in the middle of the plate.

yep :agree: If there is one thing I listen to Palmer on it's critiquing a pitcher.

[scOtt]

So .727 is a very good thing, right? For us?