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Would you be willing to trade Schoop and Givens for a good starting pitcher?

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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What we have in excess is high quality relievers and first base prospects. What we need is to deal with a team in contention who has starting pitching to spare, needs bullpen help and can fit a Mancini or Walker into their plan.
Needn't be a contender. TB could use some good young 1B/DH and RP talent and they have a number of SP that could help us.
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brianod All-Star

brianod

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Combined Givens and Schoop look to be worth 1.3 fWAR. So we need to trade them for a SP at least that valuable. That would be someone currently like Tillman, Stroman,Scherzer or Gio Gonzalez.

Givens and Schoop for Gio? I think your formulas need to be recalculated:) Not only no, but hell no

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brianod All-Star

brianod

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I'm just talking about their current worth in comparison to some SP current worth.

Current worth is meaningless when talking about trading Schoop. Givens too, to a lesser extent. They both have high, cost controlled upsides. You need to get much more than their current value if you trade them. The problem is the other team will pooh pooh their value and talk current value. I can't see getting anything that will help the O's.

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allquixotic Hangout Grand Counsel

allquixotic

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I'm categorically against trading multiple known ML-caliber players for one player. You're putting all your eggs in one basket. One collision, one fluke hard-hit comebacker to the head, one Tommy John surgery, one illegal act leading to jail time, one PED suspension... and you've effectively given away a number of good ML players to an opposing team for free.

It's just too risky. Individuals are inherently fragile, weak-willed, poor decision-makers, and sometimes just unlucky, to the extent that you can't go all-in on one player. It's hard enough to convince me to go all-in on someone with money (Machado), but when you're trading away talent, it's an even harder call. I don't think it can really be done in the post-moneyball era.

Now, I'm more willing to deal MiL prospects with high upside potential, because we don't know yet whether they will actually develop. There's probably a better probability of most players with "great potential" to be bad than to be good or great. That's why great players are so rare and why it's so hard to catch lightning in a bottle like that. If other teams want to take that risk instead of having us assume that risk by growing them and hoping for the best, let them have 'em. We'll gladly take ML-ready players with proven ML success in return.

That's why drafting is so important. You have to have a great farm to be able to grow your ML club, especially if you don't have the money to just buy the players you want with cash like the Yankees do. If your MiL farm turns out to be a bunch of nobodies, you end up with (IMHO) ridiculous propositions like this, where we're so desperate to heal a big infection on our leg that we're willing to amputate our arm to do so.

That said, I think it's fine to have the discussion. I just have a particular philosophy and way of reasoning about baseball that really puts me strongly against this kind of thing.

Am I glad we didn't deal for Max Scherzer or someone like that? Yeah, pretty glad. Sure, he might perform well for us, but I think we'd have to give up way too much good ML talent to get him. If we could get him simply by dealing MiL prospects, I'd say do it.

Look at Bundy and Gausman. We thought they'd be an elite one-two punch at the top of our rotation. Instead, Gausman is serviceable with a decent chance to be a top of the rotation guy in the next year or two, but Bundy is stuck in the 'pen and may never graduate to the rotation. Neither one has given us any indication that they are slated to become the next Clayton Kershaw or Jake Arrieta. If we had traded Bundy when his perceived value was highest, we would have been able to get a decent return on him. If we had traded Gausman, it would have been unfortunate given his potential, but doing so might've allowed us to deal for someone who could have put us into the world series in 2014.

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srock Veteran All-Star

srock

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I think the Orioles should trade for MORE relievers. Keep an arsenal in Norfolk. Sept 1 bring them all up and only use your starters a few innings per game.

Unless Tillman or Gausman is blowing everybody away.

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25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

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I think the Orioles should trade for MORE relievers. Keep an arsenal in Norfolk. Sept 1 bring them all up and only use your starters a few innings per game.

Unless Tillman or Gausman is blowing everybody away.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Now that's progressive thinking. I like it.

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