The Orioles would build a better team if they sold

[bluedog]

Toronto and Boston are the two best teams in our divison and I expect us to finish third unless we make a deal for a better starting pitcher to solidify the rotation. We have got by with a great home record and terrible road record. Only Oakland (363.2) has used its relievers more than the Orioles (358.1) in the AL. The bullpen ERA (3.06) is second only to the Dodgers (3.03). Our starters have thrown the fewest innings in the AL (564.2) and that have done that to 5.00 ERA, which is only ahead of Oakland (5.06).

The Orioles get to play the Rangers, White Sox, Athletics, Giants, Red Sox, Astros, Nationals, Yankees and Blue Jays this month and we have a bunch of home games in there. The issue is that we play the A's, Giants, Nationals and White Sox on the road. If the road woes continue we could really have some problems IMO. I think that August could be ugly. I just feel that you deal when the market is at its weakest.

How many times this season have we seen this post? The O's are going to fade because the Red Sox and Blue Jays are better?

The Red Sox failed to win any of their last four series against the Mariners, Tigers, Angels and Twins. They are 4 - 9 in their last 13 games against 4 teams that are a combined 19 games below .500

At what point do people start evaluating the quality of that team based on actual performance? They have the 9th best record in baseball over nearly 70% of the season. Maybe they get hot down the stretch, but all the evidence to date suggests that they are not significantly better than a wild card contender.

[primetime]

When I said "mildly surprising" about Ortiz I really meant I think he's on horse steroids.

Someone rep this man!!

[weams]

I do. Watching KC's success the past 2 years gives me reason to buy into this. And I believe the direction of this team is geared toward more hitting, situational hitting (deeper in counts) and less reliance on the free-swinging, high-strikeout approach toward HR's as the basis of scoring runs. I think dry spells this season have been directly due to impatient hitting. I think shortening the swing, going with a pitch, working the count, getting into the bullpen (big prize) are the things you want to do to get the dominant SP out. Make them pitch. You're doing them a favor whiffing at every pitch that they know you'll be a sucker for. I just totally disagree with this approach and its why you don't see many WS champions win by bludgeoning the ball. You can argue it's the easiest path to scoring but I would argue it's just the opposite when facing a playoff teams' top 3 starters repeatedly. And this approach does not negate HR opportunities. Tiring pitchers are more apt to hanging or grooving a pitch than when they are throwing low pitch counts and easily getting strikeouts. And in OPACY, the HR's are always still in play. I just think this is more of what Buck would like to see.

And I'm hoping some day CD sees the light and TRIES to go with the pitch more often against the shift and get easy hits which would force pitchers not to throw away from him so often. He's in love with the long ball. And that's a shame IMO. He's destined to be a .240 hitter with 200 strikeouts with 30+ HR's per year. I would prefer more production and less whiffing from cleanup. That's just me.

I disagree with all that you are purporting though. But as long as you are staying calm, I support your right to say it.

[weams]

Someone rep this man!!

He is on horse steroids.

[bluedog]

Would trading Zach Britton have had any meaningful impact on Baltimore's playoff chances?

You have to look at the ripple effect that moving Britton out would have on the rest of the pen. Sure Brach or O'Day can replace him as closer and do a reasonable job, but that's almost irrelevant to determining the impact it would have on the team.

Moving Britton means his innings have to be picked up by someone else. That someone is probably not on the roster now - even if O'Day took the closer roll, someone has to replace O'Day's innings. Maybe Brach, but then Brach's innings get replaced by Givens and so forth. In the end, you bring up someone from Norfolk or Bowie to effectively replace Brittons innings. If that guy pitches to a 4.00 ERA, you're replacing a .60 ERA with a 4.00 ERA which is a major downgrade.

Also, every pitcher in the bullpen moves up into a higher leverage roll where they are probably less effective than the pitcher that was previously in that roll.

The ripple effect is hard to measure, but I believe it's significant.

[Frobby]

Possible. I would be surprised if the replacement 7th inning option is 2-3 wins worse than what Baltimore has now -- that would mean 6-9 wins worse over the course of a full season, which seams rich for RP value.

My logic was that you are replacing a guy with a sub-1.00 ERA with a reliever whose ERA is likely to be more in the 3.00-4.50 range (remembering that it's basically the last guy on the totem pole who is taking the roster spot). I figure 20 IP or so times 2.00-3.50 ERA differential is 4-7 runs. Whether that translates into 2-3 wins is a bit speculative, but I'm figuring these are runs given up in close games where we are ahead or tied, so I don't think it is that wildly off.

If I wanted to play devil's advocate with myself, I'd probably point out that Buck managed through the loss of O'Day for almost two months without a terrible decline in performance by the pen. But I do think the 'pen was somewhat impaired by that loss, and that the heavy use of Brach in that period may be what's causing him to have some recent hiccups. So if we had traded Britton at the deadline, more problems of that type might have arisen, and if either Brach or O'Day hits the DL for any reason, then we'd really be disadvantaged compared to the situation with Britton on hand.

[DrungoHazewood]

Possible. I would be surprised if the replacement 7th inning option is 2-3 wins worse than what Baltimore has now -- that would mean 6-9 wins worse over the course of a full season, which seams rich for RP value.

It's high by a factor of two or three. But would you want to be the GM who had to tell everyone that you traded your 33-for-33 closer because it wasn't going to hurt that much and besides it might be better for the future?

[weams]

You have to look at the ripple effect that moving Britton out would have on the rest of the pen. Sure Brach or O'Day can replace him as closer and do a reasonable job, but that's almost irrelevant to determining the impact it would have on the team.

Moving Britton means his innings have to be picked up by someone else. That someone is probably not on the roster now - even if O'Day took the closer roll, someone has to replace O'Day's innings. Maybe Brach, but then Brach's innings get replaced by Givens and so forth. In the end, you bring up someone from Norfolk or Bowie to effectively replace Brittons innings. If that guy pitches to a 4.00 ERA, you're replacing a .60 ERA with a 4.00 ERA which is a major downgrade.

Also, every pitcher in the bullpen moves up into a higher leverage roll where they are probably less effective than the pitcher that was previously in that roll.

The ripple effect is hard to measure, but I believe it's significant.

And it's hard to measure. Think of all the rings that Detroit should have

[Frobby]

How many times this season have we seen this post? The O's are going to fade because the Red Sox and Blue Jays are better?

The Red Sox failed to win any of their last four series against the Mariners, Tigers, Angels and Twins. They are 4 - 9 in their last 13 games against 4 teams that are a combined 19 games below .500

At what point do people start evaluating the quality of that team based on actual performance? They have the 9th best record in baseball over nearly 70% of the season. Maybe they get hot down the stretch, but all the evidence to date suggests that they are not significantly better than a wild card contender.

Amen to this post. We are three games ahead of the Sox and they still have a million road games left on their schedule. I'm not saying they can't catch us, but I'm tired of the presumption that they are the better team.

[bluedog]

Amen to this post. We are three games ahead of the Sox and they still have a million road games left on their schedule. I'm not saying they can't catch us, but I'm tired of the presumption that they are the better team.

People are so obsessed with starting pitching it's crazy. The Orioles lead the majors in come from behind wins because we have a great offense and a fantastic bullpen. There are teams with solid starting pitching that are .500 or worse teams because their bullpen and / or offense stinks. You have to evaluate the whole team.

[weams]

Fair enough. Do you agree with VaTech's statement? He indicated several players having monster years unexpectedly. While he's out do you want to pinch hit and offer up those players? Do you disagree with the comparisons I made to Orioles players perhaps overperforming some?

In any event, it's fun watching Baltimore in the hunt again. Hope you enjoy the close of the season/playoffs. If they make the series I'll buy you a beer before one of the games.

We know that Ortiz uses. We don't know that Manny and Trumbo do.

[weams]

Ortiz -- this year vs. last +0.2 WAR {Add is this really more surprising than Trumbo?}

Hanley -- Why on earth would this year be the surprise? Prior to last year he was 5.4 WAR and 3.5 WAR vs 1.4 WAR this year? {And is this really more surprising than Hardy?}

JBJ -- Wouldn't have been a surprise if y'all had been listening... {And I'd say Kim/Schoop is certainly on par with respect to a marginal uncertainty outperforming expectations}

Sorry; I'm not seeing the "Wow I can't believe how lucky Boston has been this year" evidence.

We all know Cruz used and uses, but NONE of the Biogenesis gang ever tested hot. So color me skeptical on many individuals. If Ryan Flaherty were a triple crown contender, I'd be agreeing with you about the abusing.

I have told you how impressed I was with your resurrection of JBJ. And no one said that Oritiz has just started using the Winstrol.

[Stotle]

We know that Ortiz uses. We don't know that Manny and Trumbo do.

That makes the Orioles morally superior, but no less surprising in their performance.

[weams]

That makes the Orioles morally superior, but no less surprising in their performance.

It means I know why one is as it is, and I have no idea about the others. Ethics aside.

[Stotle]

We all know Cruz used and uses, but NONE of the Biogenesis gang ever tested hot. So color me skeptical on many individuals. If Ryan Flaherty were a triple crown contender, I'd be agreeing with you about the abusing.

I have told you how impressed I was with your resurrection of JBJ. And no one said that Oritiz has just started using the Winstrol.

I didn't know you remembered my liking JBJ. Was just teasing, but thanks for that.