The Orioles would build a better team if they sold

[BohKnowsBmore]

Would trading Zach Britton have had any meaningful impact on Baltimore's playoff chances? And I'll bite on Boston -- who are the several players having surprising monster years?

Chances in the playoffs almost certainly. I would think a dominant reliever who can go multiple innings should he need to is a huge benefit w/r/t winning individual games.

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[Stotle]

Obviously Ortiz and Hanley, with a bit of JBJ throwing in for good measure.

Ortiz -- this year vs. last +0.2 WAR {Add is this really more surprising than Trumbo?}

Hanley -- Why on earth would this year be the surprise? Prior to last year he was 5.4 WAR and 3.5 WAR vs 1.4 WAR this year? {And is this really more surprising than Hardy?}

JBJ -- Wouldn't have been a surprise if y'all had been listening... {And I'd say Kim/Schoop is certainly on par with respect to a marginal uncertainty outperforming expectations}

Sorry; I'm not seeing the "Wow I can't believe how lucky Boston has been this year" evidence.

[Stotle]

Chances in the playoffs almost certainly. I would think a dominate reliever who can go multiple innings should he need to is a huge benefit w/r/t winning individual games.

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I don't think VaTech would agree with you -- the playoffs are a crapshoot and one reliever won't affect those odds (is what I would assume he would say to that).

[brianod]

I like our deadline moves this year. Long term sustained success demands a top notch farm system and we didn't lose anyone significant. We have a long way to go to get there but that's a start. I think too many people see this as an either or equation. I think we can build the farm while winning. That should be the goal.

[Redskins Rick]

Finally someone said it.

DD has said it since he got here.

His job is two-fold, its a balancing act, between making sure Buck has the right pieces, adding dept in the farm system and making good draft selections and develop the ones they draft.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Team has the best record in the AL.

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[DrungoHazewood]

Ortiz -- this year vs. last +0.2 WAR {Add is this really more surprising than Trumbo?}

The last 40-year-old to OPS at least .920 in a full season was Ty Cobb in 1927. Ortiz is OPSing 1.029. If he finishes at that mark he'll set the record for OPS by a qualifying 40-year-old by 108 points.

Barry Bonds did OPS 1.045 at the age of 42 in 477 PAs, which is the only higher almost-qualifying mark by a 40+ year old. Ortiz also leads the league in both doubles and extra base hits, no 40+ year old has ever led the league in any individual or combined extra base hit category.

All of this has to be at least mildly surprising.

[DrungoHazewood]

I do. Watching KC's success the past 2 years gives me reason to buy into this. And I believe the direction of this team is geared toward more hitting, situational hitting (deeper in counts) and less reliance on the free-swinging, high-strikeout approach toward HR's as the basis of scoring runs. I think dry spells this season have been directly due to impatient hitting. I think shortening the swing, going with a pitch, working the count, getting into the bullpen (big prize) are the things you want to do to get the dominant SP out. Make them pitch. You're doing them a favor whiffing at every pitch that they know you'll be a sucker for. I just totally disagree with this approach and its why you don't see many WS champions win by bludgeoning the ball. You can argue it's the easiest path to scoring but I would argue it's just the opposite when facing a playoff teams' top 3 starters repeatedly. And this approach does not negate HR opportunities. Tiring pitchers are more apt to hanging or grooving a pitch than when they are throwing low pitch counts and easily getting strikeouts. And in OPACY, the HR's are always still in play. I just think this is more of what Buck would like to see.

And I'm hoping some day CD sees the light and TRIES to go with the pitch more often against the shift and get easy hits which would force pitchers not to throw away from him so often. He's in love with the long ball. And that's a shame IMO. He's destined to be a .240 hitter with 200 strikeouts with 30+ HR's per year. I would prefer more production and less whiffing from cleanup. That's just me.

It's common for the strategy of whatever whatever team just won to become the flavor of the week. But there's little or no evidence that any one type of team is any more or less successful than any other in the playoffs. Unless the type is "good".

[Stotle]

The last 40-year-old to OPS at least .920 in a full season was Ty Cobb in 1927. Ortiz is OPSing 1.029. If he finishes at that mark he'll set the record for OPS by a qualifying 40-year-old by 108 points.

Barry Bonds did OPS 1.045 at the age of 42 in 477 PAs, which is the only higher almost-qualifying mark by a 40+ year old. Ortiz also leads the league in both doubles and extra base hits, no 40+ year old has ever led the league in any individual or combined extra base hit category.

All of this has to be at least mildly surprising.

But then you have to admit it's a less convincing statement to say, "There is an argument the Red Sox are more likely to regress because one of their players is having a mildly surprising season."

[DrungoHazewood]

But then you have to admit it's a less convincing statement to say, "There is an argument the Red Sox are more likely to regress because one of their players is having a mildly surprising season."

When I said "mildly surprising" about Ortiz I really meant I think he's on horse steroids.

[tntoriole]

I love the Orioles, but I do not think they are constructed to win a championship at the moment. The minor league system is very thin and even though it sends the wrong message for a first place team to trade resources, I wish they would have in this market. Zach Britton could easily have netted a similar or better package than what the Cubs gave the Yankees. Tillman would net a good haul given what Oakland got from LA for Rich Hill. I wish the Orioles would have let Davis walk for the draft pick and skipped out on Gallardo. Wieters would net a decent return and an even better return if the O's sent another team a couple million IMO.

After this year the Orioles could easily be looking to fill holes for Tillman, Wieters and Trumbo. Matt will not warrant another team giving up a #1 pick, but Tillman and Trumbo should. Heading into next season the O's will likely have who as their starters?

Gausman

Gallardo

Bundy

Miley

Throw in another #4/#5 type

I think the Orioles strengths is in the pen, but the value given up for relievers has been high. If I can deal a reliever and get a top position prospect I am doing it. The biggest issue we will have is going to be tied to extending Manny and that is much harder to do if you extend Tillman IMO.

I don't want to trade Manny, but I do not want to let him walk for a comp pick either. The Orioles could bring in enough talent to significantly lower payroll while stocking the farm system for the future. On top of Manny the O's have to lock up Schoop. The Yankees will deal a couple more veterans in the next year and will further restock their system. I know that I will get blasted for this type of post, but when this team doesn't hit the homerun they tend to just not hit.

Too long to type all the reasons I disagree with this post. I am glad Dan and Buck are in charge and not you.

[Stotle]

When I said "mildly surprising" about Ortiz I really meant I think he's on horse steroids.

Fair enough. Do you agree with VaTech's statement? He indicated several players having monster years unexpectedly. While he's out do you want to pinch hit and offer up those players? Do you disagree with the comparisons I made to Orioles players perhaps overperforming some?

In any event, it's fun watching Baltimore in the hunt again. Hope you enjoy the close of the season/playoffs. If they make the series I'll buy you a beer before one of the games.

[Frobby]

Would trading Zach Britton have had any meaningful impact on Baltimore's playoff chances?

I certainly think so. Either O'Day or Brach could do a competent job of closing, but then their 7th/8th inning work needs to be replaced by someone who's not as good, and there is a cascading effect. I'd say it would cost us 4-7 runs in high leverage situations in the next two months, and that could translate into 2-3 wins. In a tight race like we're in, that is meaningful.

[DrungoHazewood]

Fair enough. Do you agree with VaTech's statement? He indicated several players having monster years unexpectedly. While he's out do you want to pinch hit and offer up those players? Do you disagree with the comparisons I made to Orioles players perhaps overperforming some?

In any event, it's fun watching Baltimore in the hunt again. Hope you enjoy the close of the season/playoffs. If they make the series I'll buy you a beer before one of the games.

Unfortunately I think Boston is likely to become a monster team with a fairly large number of very good young players. I'm just enjoying this year when they're not quite there, and the Yanks are doing rather poorly, too.

The only really big surprises with Boston besides Ortiz' fountain of youth are Porcello and Wright, but they're countered by Buchholz and the dumpster fire that is their 5th starter slot, along with a mild underperformance by Price.

[Stotle]

I certainly think so. Either O'Day or Brach could do a competent job of closing, but then their 7th/8th inning work needs to be replaced by someone who's not as good, and there is a cascading effect. I'd say it would cost us 4-7 runs in high leverage situations in the next two months, and that could translate into 2-3 wins. In a tight race like we're in, that is meaningful.

Possible. I would be surprised if the replacement 7th inning option is 2-3 wins worse than what Baltimore has now -- that would mean 6-9 wins worse over the course of a full season, which seams rich for RP value.