The Orioles would build a better team if they sold

[DrungoHazewood]

We were 6 games back in the division. A WC spot only guarantees you a 1 game playoff.

Are you suggesting that teams ignore the wildcard spots and plan for the future pretending that the division title is all that really matters? If so, why do teams act as though the wildcard is a worthy goal? Why does no one, or almost no one, sell when in strong wildcard contention?

[DrungoHazewood]

Maybe because they have deep farm clubs. Beside that, tons of money. We don't have either. And woeful attendance to boot which can only tighten PA's grip on his wallet.

We have a few guys who are likely not to be signed next year and if you can get maximum value for them now, you should consider.

I take that your position is that it's inertial reasoning or relatively mindless groupthink when a team doesn't throw in the towel when in first place in mid-August if the org isn't set up "right". Should the 1997 Orioles have been sellers because they were old and had a poor farm system?

[DirtyBird]

Are you suggesting that teams ignore the wildcard spots and plan for the future pretending that the division title is all that really matters? If so, why do teams act as though the wildcard is a worthy goal? Why does no one, or almost no one, sell when in strong wildcard contention?

Depends on the situation. Coming off winning the division and losing in the ALCS, the next step is trying to make it to the WS, not squeak into a one game playoff. 2012 was different, just making a WC was considered a success.

[POR]

We were 6 games back in the division. A WC spot only guarantees you a 1 game playoff.

At the time, the Orioles were tied with the Blue Jays who ended up winning the division by 6 games.

[TouchemAll]

I love the Orioles, but I do not think they are constructed to win a championship at the moment. The minor league system is very thin and even though it sends the wrong message for a first place team to trade resources, I wish they would have in this market. Zach Britton could easily have netted a similar or better package than what the Cubs gave the Yankees. Tillman would net a good haul given what Oakland got from LA for Rich Hill. I wish the Orioles would have let Davis walk for the draft pick and skipped out on Gallardo. Wieters would net a decent return and an even better return if the O's sent another team a couple million IMO.

After this year the Orioles could easily be looking to fill holes for Tillman, Wieters and Trumbo. Matt will not warrant another team giving up a #1 pick, but Tillman and Trumbo should. Heading into next season the O's will likely have who as their starters?

Gausman

Gallardo

Bundy

Miley

Throw in another #4/#5 type

I think the Orioles strengths is in the pen, but the value given up for relievers has been high. If I can deal a reliever and get a top position prospect I am doing it. The biggest issue we will have is going to be tied to extending Manny and that is much harder to do if you extend Tillman IMO.

I don't want to trade Manny, but I do not want to let him walk for a comp pick either. The Orioles could bring in enough talent to significantly lower payroll while stocking the farm system for the future. On top of Manny the O's have to lock up Schoop. The Yankees will deal a couple more veterans in the next year and will further restock their system. I know that I will get blasted for this type of post, but when this team doesn't hit the homerun they tend to just not hit.

Yankee's veterans are older and they are not winning anything this year or next if they stand pat that's the difference and why they are selling. JMHO

[DirtyBird]

At the time, the Orioles were tied with the Blue Jays who ended up winning the division by 6 games.

They traded for Price, Tulowitski and Revere. We traded for Parra and Junior Lake.

[weams]

They traded for Price, Tulowitski and Revere. We traded for Parra and Junior Lake.

Which were poor trades.

[osfan83]

Depends on the situation. Coming off winning the division and losing in the ALCS, the next step is trying to make it to the WS, not squeak into a one game playoff. 2012 was different, just making a WC was considered a success.

Does this also apply to other sports? If an NFL team is tied for the final wild card spot with 4 games to play, should they throw in the towel and prepare for the next year?

[DirtyBird]

Does this also apply to other sports? If an NFL team is tied for the final wild card spot with 4 games to play, should they throw in the towel and prepare for the next year?

The two situations are so different, I don't even know if it is worth my time explaining it.

[osfan83]

Yeah, it's not worth it. He's too lost to grasp and is intentionally being silly. Sadly, he's not alone here.

I'm being serious...help me understand the difference. In both cases the teams are in position to go to the post season. Both only get a one game playoff. While the NFL doesn't really trade prospects for proven talent, they can play younger, unproven players instead of older vets that might not be signed for next year.

Denver, knowing Payton was about done, and not signed for next year, could have sat him and allowed a younger QB to play out the string of games.

[Frobby]

Just to play devil's advocate and throw some data into the conversation: BP's playoff odds report has us with a 57.5% chance of making the playoffs, but only a 2.6% chance of winning the World Series. Those odds strike me as incredibly low, when you consider that the average team has a 3.3% chance of winning the Series when the season begins. As they see it:

Cubs 19.1%

Indians 16.0%

Nationals 12.6%

Dodgers 9.9%

Blue Jays 8.9%

Red Sox 8.4%

Rangers 5.7%

Giants 3.5%

Tigers 3.3%

Astros 3.2%

Orioles 2.6%

Cardinals 2.1%

Mariners 1.8%

Mets 1.5%

Everyone else is below 1%.

My point is that, at least in the eyes of BP, the playoffs are not a total crapshoot, it's a weighted crapshoot, and one in which our odds are not very good.

Personally, I would put our odds higher than 2.6%, probably more in the 5% range. And though those odds aren't that good, I'd still go for it, knowing that the odds are never much better than the odds BP is assigning to the Cubs, which still aren't that great.

[osfan83]

Just to play devil's advocate and throw some data into the conversation: BP's playoff odds report has us with a 57.5% chance of making the playoffs, but only a 2.6% chance of winning the World Series. Those odds strike me as incredibly low, when you consider that the average team has a 3.3% chance of winning the Series when the season begins. As they see it:

Cubs 19.1%

Indians 16.0%

Nationals 12.6%

Dodgers 9.9%

Blue Jays 8.9%

Red Sox 8.4%

Rangers 5.7%

Giants 3.5%

Tigers 3.3%

Astros 3.2%

Orioles 2.6%

Cardinals 2.1%

Mariners 1.8%

Mets 1.5%

Everyone else is below 1%.

My point is that, at least in the eyes of BP, the playoffs are not a total crapshoot, it's a weighted crapshoot, and one in which our odds are not very good.

Personally, I would put our odds higher than 2.6%, probably more in the 5% range. And though those odds aren't that good, I'd still go for it, knowing that the odds are never much better than the odds BP is assigning to the Cubs, which still aren't that great.

So there is an 80% chance the Cubs won't win the WS. Seems like long shot for them, maybe they should be selling?

[Ruzious]

Just to play devil's advocate and throw some data into the conversation: BP's playoff odds report has us with a 57.5% chance of making the playoffs, but only a 2.6% chance of winning the World Series. Those odds strike me as incredibly low, when you consider that the average team has a 3.3% chance of winning the Series when the season begins. As they see it:

Cubs 19.1%

Indians 16.0%

Nationals 12.6%

Dodgers 9.9%

Blue Jays 8.9%

Red Sox 8.4%

Rangers 5.7%

Giants 3.5%

Tigers 3.3%

Astros 3.2%

Orioles 2.6%

Cardinals 2.1%

Mariners 1.8%

Mets 1.5%

Everyone else is below 1%.

My point is that, at least in the eyes of BP, the playoffs are not a total crapshoot, it's a weighted crapshoot, and one in which our odds are not very good.

Personally, I would put our odds higher than 2.6%, probably more in the 5% range. And though those odds aren't that good, I'd still go for it, knowing that the odds are never much better than the odds BP is assigning to the Cubs, which still aren't that great.

Sheesh, how do they have the Blue Jays at 8.9% and Red Sox at 8.4% while putting the O's at 2.6%? Those sound like beginning of the year percentages; not current. I'm guessing the numbers just weren't updated.

[canonfaz]

Just to play devil's advocate and throw some data into the conversation: BP's playoff odds report has us with a 57.5% chance of making the playoffs, but only a 2.6% chance of winning the World Series. Those odds strike me as incredibly low, when you consider that the average team has a 3.3% chance of winning the Series when the season begins. As they see it:

Cubs 19.1%

Indians 16.0%

Nationals 12.6%

Dodgers 9.9%

Blue Jays 8.9%

Red Sox 8.4%

Rangers 5.7%

Giants 3.5%

Tigers 3.3%

Astros 3.2%

Orioles 2.6%

Cardinals 2.1%

Mariners 1.8%

Mets 1.5%

Everyone else is below 1%.

My point is that, at least in the eyes of BP, the playoffs are not a total crapshoot, it's a weighted crapshoot, and one in which our odds are not very good.

Personally, I would put our odds higher than 2.6%, probably more in the 5% range. And though those odds aren't that good, I'd still go for it, knowing that the odds are never much better than the odds BP is assigning to the Cubs, which still aren't that great.

Boston at 8.9%??? Interesting, I wonder what metric is rating them so high?

[waroriole]

Just to play devil's advocate and throw some data into the conversation: BP's playoff odds report has us with a 57.5% chance of making the playoffs, but only a 2.6% chance of winning the World Series. Those odds strike me as incredibly low, when you consider that the average team has a 3.3% chance of winning the Series when the season begins. As they see it:

Cubs 19.1%

Indians 16.0%

Nationals 12.6%

Dodgers 9.9%

Blue Jays 8.9%

Red Sox 8.4%

Rangers 5.7%

Giants 3.5%

Tigers 3.3%

Astros 3.2%

Orioles 2.6%

Cardinals 2.1%

Mariners 1.8%

Mets 1.5%

Everyone else is below 1%.

My point is that, at least in the eyes of BP, the playoffs are not a total crapshoot, it's a weighted crapshoot, and one in which our odds are not very good.

Personally, I would put our odds higher than 2.6%, probably more in the 5% range. And though those odds aren't that good, I'd still go for it, knowing that the odds are never much better than the odds BP is assigning to the Cubs, which still aren't that great.

The Indians are 7 times more likely to win the WS than us? Makes no sense