If This Is It-2017 Offseason

[eddie83]

Trumbo gets a QO and is gone.

No QO for Wieters. He goes FA and does not find the big contract he is looking for. O's re-sign him 3/30

Pedro is re-signed 3/24

O's extend Tillman. 4/61m plus an option.

Mancini is traded for a young, cheap right fielder.

O's offer to eat half of Jimenez contract and see if there are any takers.

Tillman, Bundy, Gausman and Gallardo are set for next year. Miley is a question mark.

O's add Rule 5 outfielder.

Trumbo, Pearce, Reimold, McFarland, Duensing and hopefully Jimenez are gone.

A platoon DH better not be getting a 3 year deal. Why can't Mancini DH if he is any good? Where is another team playing him? He has to be able to hit to 1B in the big leagues.

[Babypowder]

It's not so much of the fact that this team is two games back with 44 to play, it's the trends that have taken place here over the past few weeks. That might be hard for you to comprehend sitting in your big house in Cashburn but try to follow along:

I saw it on here or somewhere else that this team has been shut out 139 of the last 180 innings played. This team has an all or nothing offense that is open to extremely long spells of not scoring because of how it's constructed. High strikeout, low OBP guys that rely on the long ball. If you were paying attention last summer, the same thing happened. We went through a prolonged stretch of not being able to score runs.

If you were also paying attention last summer, this team has to sweep the Yankees in the final weekend to limp to the finish line at 81-81. Now this team is at 66 wins with 44 to play, if they were to go .500 they'd finish at 88 which probably won't get them the division but might put them in wildcard contention.

If you've been paying attention this season you'll know that this team has been crap on the road and, IIRC, there's more road games than home games left for this season.

Yes, from a 2 games back with 44 to go perspective you're probably right. But if you bothered to look at other trends and what's happening beyond that, you should see some reason for concern.

I don't think there's anyone on here that isn't standing behind the team, I'm sure that most, if not all the posters here watch pretty much every game they possibly can. The very fact that this board has dedicated posters who come on here at all hours of the day should show you that this team does have a lot of backing and loyal fans. A lot of the fans on this site have been here since the dark days from '98 to 2011 when there was practically nothing to root for and nothing to get excited about. The fact that you think you're Billy Badass by accusing others of some sort of lack of fan-ship is laughable but moreover a lazy, pathetic, "sad sack" of a viewpoint. Everyone on this board is a diehard, that should go without question. We can banter back and forth and have different dialogues on what this team should and shouldn't do, but no one here should ever be questioned on their support of the team. You might not have "gone after" anyone in particular but you pretty much went after everyone who's displeased with the way things are going right now. I'm not sure if there's a large difference.

There. Is that "cowardly striking back" or are you too dense to pick up what I'm putting down?

But Moose, get all these sissy thoughts out of your head and just "be a man for god sakes".

[wildcard]

Where the O's finish this year should be irrelevant to what we do next year.

Extend Manny (if ownership has the dollars). Please please please.

QO Trumbo. Also let Pedro go. Sign Michael Saunders and call up Mancini.

Extend Wieters for a modest number and years.

Keep Britton but look to trade him if we are not contending in July.

Target a LHP for the bullpen in the Rule 5.

Why do you think that Hart is not has good as any lefty reliever that will be in the Rule 5 draft?

[wildcard]

A platoon DH better not be getting a 3 year deal. Why can't Mancini DH if he is any good? Where is another team playing him? He has to be able to hit to 1B in the big leagues.

IMO Pedro has become a core player on this team. He adds left-handed power. Can actually carry an offense for a period. He fits in great in the clubhouse and he balances the lineup with another lefty to go with Davis, Kim and maybe switch hitting Wieters.

[Bradysburns]

The problem with all that is that team is worse than the one we have now that is collapsing. Extending Manny does not help the team as there are too many problems and the farm is in ruins, so no help there. Mancini

is far from a sure thing and is slugging only .452 at Norfolk. He's also striking out 25% of his ABs. The BA and OBP is nice, but whether that translates to the majors is yet to be seen. Mancini is a long shot and is pretty

far from a certainty at DH.

Soto hasn't played over 100 games since 2011. He played in 99 games in 2012, 54 games in 2013, 24 games in 2014, 78 games last year and 24 games so far this year. He is not an upgrade over Wieters who will more

than likely accept the QO if offered to him. Soto is a significant downgrade and he hasn't been an every day catcher in six years it will be. That is very risky.

Colby Rasmus is no good and strikes out way too much while not getting on base and can't hit lefties. Basically, Pedro Alvarez v2 plus he only listens to his father which makes him uncoachable. The O's passed on him

already. Saunders, maybe, but are you confident he can repeat this year he's having?

Bottom line is the Orioles will need to rebuild. The longer the inevitable is put off, the more it's going to hurt when it is unavoidable and the longer it's going to take to recover from it. It'll be 1998-2011 all over again.

Trade Britton, Jones and Machado. Keep Bundy, Gausman (unless a good offer is given), Tillman, Schoop, Kim, Rickard, Brach, Givens. If a suitor can be found for Davis, Gallardo and Miley, do it. The trades would bring

back 10+ players with most being high quality youth to rejuvinate the farm system and the major league club. If this team with this offense misses the playoffs, it has to be done. No more of this patchwork stuff signing

average to below average players and hoping it all works out. This team would not be one or two players away from a championship. It's a whole farm system, half a pitching staff and a more dynamic offense away from

a championship.

A rebuild is inevitable whether it's done sooner or later, it will happen. The only question is how bad will it hurt and for how long? The longer it is put off and patched up with fingers crossed, the longer and more severe

the pains will be trying to build it all from scratch through the draft after all of our trading chips are either gone for nothing or have lost their value. Extending Machado does not make us better than we are now. Extending

Tillman does not make us better than we are now. Signing any of those players you mentioned does not make us better than we are now. The team has too many problems to just patch it up with replacement level

players like this organization did for so many years and what did that get us? Nothing, not until we traded some of our best players and turned one player into multiple players that filled needs. At least then, we had some

hope on the farm. Now, we have none, so more drastic solutions would be necessary.

Put me in the "never rebuild, always retool" camp. What does rebuilding mean? It generally means years of failure, under-performance, and eternal "hope" without a payoff.

One factor you're not considering here is internal growth of our young players: Bundy, Gausman, even pieces like Kim, Rickard, etc. If Bundy and Gausman continue to develop apace, that starts to shore up your rotation. It might look more like Tillman, Gausman, Bundy... and four/five... with your 1-3 starters being legitimate TOR pitchers.

Do we need a little creative destruction here? Yes, I think we do. But to tear down and start from scratch? That's admitting complete defeat and roster failure. We aren't anywhere NEAR there, IMO. You keep your good guys regardless, so signing Machado and Tillman to longer-term deals would be a great start. Then you look to fill holes. We'll have one in right field and possibly left, plus a fluid rotation. I can't see scrapping a whole roster because of that situation.

[Bradysburns]

We can make trades like the Bedard trade and I'd agree that it was a fantastic move. However, the Bedard trade resulted in an uptick in salary for us as we had to pony up to keep Jones. At the time, he was the most expensive player in team history.

Gotta put it on the table to keep someone like Manny or else he's gonna go to NY or Boston. You're telling me that the Nats shouldn't sign Harper long term? Angels shouldn't try to keep Trout?

Paralysis by analysis and the fear of what might happen won't improve this team, either. Ideally this team would be good enough to have guys waiting in the wings to replace what we have but we don't.

Agreed 100%. And if I ever learn that Chris Davis got Manny's money... I'm going to Chris's house to politely request that we arrange a transfer of funds. (Very politely...)

[Moose Milligan]

But Moose, get all these sissy thoughts out of your head and just "be a man for god sakes".

[Aristotelian]

Why do you think that Hart is not has good as any lefty reliever that will be in the Rule 5 draft?

He might be, but he is under team control so it couldn't hurt to target another in the Rule 5. I don't see any other major needs that we would want to address through the Rule 5. Ideally I would like to have two LHPs in the bullpen, neither of whom are named McFarland.

[TINSTAAPP]

Gallardo Miley and jiminez are huge problems.

Thankfully they are all gone after the end of next year.

Yeah, there's no excuse for the Orioles not to lock up Manny during or after the 2017 season. Ubaldo, Gallardo, Miley and Hardy's contracts will be off the books after 2017. That's $45+ million right there. Use $30-35 million of that money to lock up Machado long-term.

[Camden_yardbird]

I don't think this team can afford Manny. Ticket sales are down; we have way more holes than just third base (especially offensively); and it's a huge risk to put all your eggs in one basket.

If we could get a solid guarantee that Manny will never be injured, will consistently have an AB of at least .300 throughout his tenure, never slump for more than a week, never spend 1-2 months learning how to catch and throw again while making an error every other inning throughout, etc., then I'd say go ahead and give him half of the entire team's salary.

But none of those guarantees can be given, because people are mortal. They get hurt. They slump terribly. They forget how to catch, throw, hit, or all three at once. They get stomach flu; their parents die and they go on the bereavement list; they feel they have to use steroids to get ahead and occasionally get caught. They're human.

No. Putting all your eggs in one basket is a terrible idea. If you draft a player who comes up and is a star, that's great; enjoy them while they last. But a mid-market team like the Orioles cannot afford to invest $300MM+ into a single player. The Davis re-signing was pushing it already, and he seems perfectly content to sit back on his pile of gold and be perfectly mediocre this year. What if Manny turns out mediocre next year? Will he be worth 10/300 or 15/500 or whatever ridiculous out-of-this-world deal his agent will negotiate?

Let me put it another way. If we don't re-sign Manny, what can we do with that money? Maybe we can pick up a mid-season SP during a pennant race who's actually a bit better than Joe Saunders or Wade Miley. Maybe we can pick up a strong bullpen arm to shore up a tired pen. Maybe we can find a free agent who can hit for average. Maybe all three!

I think trying to re-sign incredible players is letting our emotions get away with us a bit too much. We get attached to players who are good. We want them to be an Oriole for life. But the reality is, we don't have the budget of the Yankees or the Dodgers. Angelos isn't made of money, and the money he did have laying around went to Davis. That's a lot of Mesothelioma case settlements invested in one guy, and it's probably less than half of what Manny will get.

We need to make more trades like the Bedard trade and fewer signings like Davis/Manny. That's how we can build a contender every year. Not by risking our entire organization on a single guy, who is far from a lock to play like an MVP every year, and could easily turn into a bust because of a freak injury or God knows what.

If the Orioles can't afford Manny then signing Davis was a huge mistake. If they can't afford Manny then they need to trade him because letting him walk for a pick is terrible. And if they need trade Manny then it's rebuild time and having a $170 million first baseman is useless.

[eddie83]

IMO Pedro has become a core player on this team. He adds left-handed power. Can actually carry an offense for a period. He fits in great in the clubhouse and he balances the lineup with another lefty to go with Davis, Kim and maybe switch hitting Wieters.

Power isn't an issue on this team. He is a DH who doesn't play vs LHP. If they bring him back on a 1 year deal depending on the rest of the roster I can live with it but no way would I give him a multi year deal.

[Ohfan67]

I suggested this thread yesterday but I was only joking. Wow. 2 games back with 44 to play and some have thrown in the towel. Incredible. What a bunch of front-runners.

I'm fairly new to this site and certainly not impressed by the level of support behind the team during bouts of adversity. Some of you guys have no shame. Sorry but it needs to be said - the truth stings sometimes. I'm sure some of you will defensively (and reflexively) claim it's okay to look to the future but that's not the point I'm getting at. It's more the denial of instant gratification that leads to absolute terror-stricken mindsets. What a weak bunch of pathetic sad-sacks. Show some semblance of a constitution and stand behind your team and accept rough patches/losses and come back the next day without so much white-flag waving. Just once. Be a man for god sakes.

And try to resist the urge to cowardly (on a website) strike back. This is my opinion, nothing more. I went after no one in particular so please don't feel personally offended. Just an observation.

All the posters love the Orioles. When you are on the board longer you will notice that some posters ease their pain by focusing on the future when things get tough. During rough stretches, even short rough stretches, there are a lot of emotional threads and they vary a bit. There are rant threads focused on particular players or coaches (hitting coaches attract a lot of attention for some reason), there are gloom and doom threads, there are I-told-you-so threads, adn there are the blow-it-up future-focused thredad. We all deal with the pain in our own ways.

[wildcard]

He might be, but he is under team control so it couldn't hurt to target another in the Rule 5. I don't see any other major needs that we would want to address through the Rule 5. Ideally I would like to have two LHPs in the bullpen, neither of whom are named McFarland.

I think the Rule 5 guy fits better as Reimold's replacement. 25th man. Tolliver backs up Hart as the a lefty reliever. Both have options. JMO.

[wildcard]

Power isn't an issue on this team. He is a DH who doesn't play vs LHP. If they bring him back on a 1 year deal depending on the rest of the roster I can live with it but no way would I give him a multi year deal.

OK, I can see your point. But for me the O's lose 40 HR when Trumbo leaves. And I would much rather see a really good defensive right fielder that can leadoff then trying to find another HR hitter for right. For me Pedro fits well at LH DH and he is young enough that a three year deal would work for me.

[Aristotelian]

I think the Rule 5 guy fits better as Reimold's replacement. 25th man. Tolliver backs up Hart as the a lefty reliever. Both have options. JMO.

Sure. Another possibility would be a SS/3B guy as Flaherty will be getting increasingly expensive and we still lack depth in the system to back up JJ and take over 3B when JJ leaves.