Success rate from the draft to the bigs

[ChuckS]

I though this would be an interesting exercise. I wanted to make a list of players we have drafted in the last ten years that have gone on to be productive big leaguers. I'm not going to count guys like Brian Matusz with 2.7 career WAR over nine seasons, but I will count players who I feel are on their way (Gausman, Bundy, Davies).

2006: Zach Britton

2007: Matt Wieters, Jake Arrieta

2008: Caleb Joseph

2009: Mychal Givens

2010: Manny Machado

2011: Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies

2012: Kevin Gausman (Josh Hader likely, Walker has a shot - but more likely a 4A type)

2013: TOO EARLY TO FORECAST (Sisco and Mancini are close to getting opportunities)

2014: TOO EARLY TO FORECAST

2015: TOO EARLY TO FORECAST

Maybe I'm missing a few guys, but it seems like one or two "hits" a year is the norm for us. The good player development organizations probably do three or more a year and I think that's the number (3) that should be considered a successful draft when evaluating years later.

[LookitsPuck]

Do we really want to count us as having hits that are outside of our organization? Should they be considered "our" success stories?

[ChuckS]

Do we really want to count us as having hits that are outside of our organization? Should they be considered "our" success stories?

They have to be counted for one team or the other. I'm not counting Chris Tillman for 2006 and I wouldn't count Adam Jones either. For purposes of the discussion, I am limiting it to players we have drafted.

Some would argue Adam Jones and Chris Tillman are a product of our player development since they were obtained for Erik Bedard, a guy we drafted. I'm just keeping it simple.

[Frobby]

Maybe I'm missing a few guys, but it seems like one or two "hits" a year is the norm for us. The good player development organizations probably do three or more a year and I think that's the number (3) that should be considered a successful draft when evaluating years later.

I've done some exercises like this in the past, and it partly depends on where you are drawing the line on who is a "hit." Here is something I did in the 2013-14 offseason, looking at the 2013 playoff teams:

Cardinals: drafted and signed 23 players who have produced more than 1.0 rWAR since 2003. Collectively these players have earned 105.9 WAR.

Braves: 15 players worth 116.9 WAR

Dodgers: 14 players worth 96.0 WAR

A's: 13 players worth 86.4 WAR

Red Sox: 12 players worth 148.4 WAR

Tigers: 12 players worth 92.4 WAR

Rays: 10 players worth 93.3 WAR

Pirates: 10 players worth 69.9 WAR

Orioles: 10 players worth 61.4 WAR

Here's something else I did, looking at major league debuts from 2011-15:

Total debuts: 1,133 (37.8 per team)

Total debuts of players who have averaged 2 WAR per season or more: 70 (2.3 per team)

Total debuts of players who have averaged 1 WAR per season or more: 186 (6.2 per team)

Total debuts of players who totaled 2.0 WAR or higher: 229 (7.6 per team)

Total debuts of players who totaled more than 0.0 WAR: 612 (20.4 per team)

Here's how the Orioles stack up:

2+ WAR per season: Machado, Chen

1+ WAR per season: Those two plus Gonzalez, Britton, Joseph, and Givens

2+ WAR total: those six plus Gausman

More than 0.0 WAR: those eight plus Blake Davis, Florimon, Socolovich, Pomeranz, Hoes, Flaherty, Steve Johnson, Bundy, Schoop, McFarland, Drake and Wilson.

Obviously, we had lots of guys debut with us who we did not draft. But about 70% of the players who debut each year were drafted by someone, with the other 30% being foreign players. So, you can infer from this data about how many players a team would have to draft to be average.

[ChuckS]

Just for some perspective, I counted 15 guys (with a career WAR of 3 or more) drafted by the Cardinals between 2006 and 2012.

We drafted five players in the same time frame who meet that criteria.

[ChuckS]

I've done some exercises like this in the past, and it partly depends on where you are drawing the line on who is a "hit." Here is something I did in the 2013-14 offseason, looking at the 2013 playoff teams:

Here's something else I did, looking at major league debuts from 2011-15:

Obviously, we had lots of guys debut with us who we did not draft. But about 70% of the players who debut each year were drafted by someone, with the other 30% being foreign players. So, you can infer from this data about how many players a team would have to draft to be average.

1+ WAR per season seems a reasonable standard. 12 players drafted by the Red Sox producing 150 WAR over that time frame is just insane.

[oriolediehard]

Why can't we draft players such as these?:

Boegarts

Betts

Bradley

S.Leon

Benintendi

Pedroia

I hate the Red Sox. Red Sox drafted way after of the O's. The Sox has 100 times smarter farm scouts than the O's. Why don't the O's fire their

full scouting staff and hire ones that know what their doing like the Sox? The difference between been good a long time of bad a long time.

[LookitsPuck]

Why can't we draft players such as these?:

Boegarts

Betts

Bradley

S.Leon

Benintendi

Pedroia

I hate the Red Sox. Red Sox drafted way after of the O's. The Sox has 100 times smarter farm scouts than the O's. Why don't the O's fire their

full scouting staff and hire ones that know what their doing like the Sox? The difference between been good a long time of bad a long time.

Sandy Leon wasn't drafted by the Red Sox. Career minor league slash of .238/.325/.330 - .654 OPS.

[FlipTheBird]

Just for some perspective, I counted 15 guys (with a career WAR of 3 or more) drafted by the Cardinals between 2006 and 2012.

We drafted five players in the same time frame who meet that criteria.

The Cardinals remain the gold standard in a lot of different departments.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Why can't we draft players such as these?:

Boegarts

Betts

Bradley

S.Leon

Benintendi

Pedroia

I hate the Red Sox. Red Sox drafted way after of the O's. The Sox has 100 times smarter farm scouts than the O's. Why don't the O's fire their

full scouting staff and hire ones that know what their doing like the Sox? The difference between been good a long time of bad a long time.

Two things:

1) Boegarts wasn't drafted

2) how do you consider Manny Machado?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[oceanicvoyage]

Why can't we draft players such as these?:

Boegarts

Betts

Bradley

S.Leon

Benintendi

Pedroia

I hate the Red Sox. Red Sox drafted way after of the O's. The Sox has 100 times smarter farm scouts than the O's. Why don't the O's fire their

full scouting staff and hire ones that know what their doing like the Sox? The difference between been good a long time of bad a long time.

The red sox have picked before the O's over the last 4 years. And over those 4 years, they haven't really 'hit' on anyone other than benintendi.

This is just a quick summary of first picks by each team:

2012: RS - Deven Marrero (24th ovr) & Brian Johnson (31st ovr) < O's - Gausman (4th ovr)

2013: RS - Trey Ball (7th ovr) < O's - Hunter Harvey (22nd ovr)

2014: RS - RS Michael Chavis (26th ovr) < Brian Gonzalez (90th ovr)

2015: RS - Benintendi (7th ovr) > DJ Stewart (25th ovr)

2016: RS - Groome (12th ovr) ? O's - Sedlock (27th)

Based on this extremely quick breakdown of draft picks, you could argue that the O's have drafted better pound for pound ($ for $).

The Red Sox have had a lot of high picks and have spent more money and still don't have that high of a success rate - at least for high draft picks.

They can make up for this by spending internationally, but you could argue that they spend more for less results there too. They might hit on Moancada, but wasted money on Rusney Castillo.

[Stotle]

The red sox have picked before the O's over the last 4 years. And over those 4 years, they haven't really 'hit' on anyone other than benintendi.

This is just a quick summary of first picks by each team:

2012: RS - Deven Marrero (24th ovr) & Brian Johnson (31st ovr) < O's - Gausman (4th ovr)

2013: RS - Trey Ball (7th ovr) < O's - Hunter Harvey (22nd ovr)

2014: RS - RS Michael Chavis (26th ovr) < Brian Gonzalez (90th ovr)

2015: RS - Benintendi (7th ovr) > DJ Stewart (25th ovr)

2016: RS - Groome (12th ovr) ? O's - Sedlock (27th)

Based on this extremely quick breakdown of draft picks, you could argue that the O's have drafted better pound for pound ($ for $).

The Red Sox have had a lot of high picks and have spent more money and still don't have that high of a success rate - at least for high draft picks.

They can make up for this by spending internationally, but you could argue that they spend more for less results there too. They might hit on Moancada, but wasted money on Rusney Castillo.

Well, take the best player taken at/near the first pick...

2012 -- Gausman (early-1st) >> Johnson (late-1st)

2013 -- Ball (early-1st) == Harvey (late-1st) (sorry, until Harvey can actually stay healthy this is a wash, no matter how disappointing Ball's results are)

2014 -- Kopech (late-1st) >> Gonzalez (3rd) (obviously, right? But probably irrelevant since we are comparing a 1st and 3rd rounder)

2015 -- Benintendi (early-1st) >> Stewart (late-1st) (obviously)

2016 -- Groome ?? Sedlock (Sedlock should move more quickly; Groome much higher upside; Sedlock less risk/better makeup)

The only thing this maybe shows me is that early-1st rounders are more likely to perform better than late-1st rounders and even late-1st rounders are better than 3rd rounders.

[TINSTAAPP]

Well, take the best player taken at/near the first pick...

2012 -- Gausman (early-1st) >> Johnson (late-1st)

2013 -- Ball (early-1st) == Harvey (late-1st) (sorry, until Harvey can actually stay healthy this is a wash, no matter how disappointing Ball's results are)

2014 -- Kopech (late-1st) >> Gonzalez (3rd) (obviously, right? But probably irrelevant since we are comparing a 1st and 3rd rounder)

2015 -- Benintendi (early-1st) >> Stewart (late-1st) (obviously)

2016 -- Groome ?? Sedlock (Sedlock should move more quickly; Groome much higher upside; Sedlock less risk/better makeup)

The only thing this maybe shows me is that early-1st rounders are more likely to perform better than late-1st rounders and even late-1st rounders are better than 3rd rounders.

They've also had some bad luck and misses. In 2000, they won their last four games of the season which cost them the opportunity to draft Teixiera in the 2001 Draft. Instead, they selected Chris Smith who ended up injuring his arm and never pitching in the big leagues. In 2002, they selected Adam Loewen over Zack Greinke and Prince Fielder. In 2004, they went 18-10 in September which caused them to fall to the 13th selection in the 2005 Draft. The 11th and 12th overall picks in the 2005 Draft ended up being Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce. And in 2006, they drafted Billy Rowell over Tim Lincecum and Max Scherzer. I know Scherzer was playing hardball with his contract negotiations but sometimes you need to pony up the extra money to sign premium talent especially when you have a farm system devoid of talent. The Orioles ended up doing that the following year with Wieters and it turned out to be the right move. The two players selected right before and after him didn't come close to being as productive in the big leagues as Wieters.