MLBTR Arbitration Projections

[Crazysilver03]

Orioles (10)

Chris Tillman (5.113) ? $10.6MM

Ryan Flaherty (5.000) ? $1.7MM

Zach Britton (4.158) ? $11.4MM

Vance Worley (4.112) ? $3.3MM

Brad Brach (4.063) ? $2.9MM

Manny Machado (4.056) ? $11.2MM

Jonathan Schoop (3.027) ? $3.4MM

T.J. McFarland (3.007) ? $700K

Kevin Gausman (2.151) ? $3.9MM

Caleb Joseph (2.145) ? $1.0MM

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-2017.html

Of note, Gausman and Joseph qualify for super 2 status, though that is much more important in the case of Gausman.

[Frobby]

That's $50.1 mm for 10 players who cost us $25.4 mm last season. Hardy, Jimenez, O'Day and Gallardo all have raises built into their deals, totaling $5 mm. Then there's Miley, who will cost just shy of $9 mm and wasn't on our OD roster. Altogether, the incumbent players who are not free agents are going to cost about $144 mm, about $8 mm short of last year's payroll.

[bpilktree]

That's $50.1 mm for 10 players who cost us $25.4 mm last season. Hardy, Jimenez, O'Day and Gallardo all have raises built into their deals, totaling $5 mm. Then there's Miley, who will cost just shy of $9 mm and wasn't on our OD roster. Altogether, those 15 players are going to cost about $144 mm, about $8 mm short of last year's payroll.

It looks like if you add in those raises and defered money that the current roster would be at 143 million.

[Crazysilver03]

That's $50.1 mm for 10 players who cost us $25.4 mm last season. Hardy, Jimenez, O'Day and Gallardo all have raises built into their deals, totaling $5 mm. Then there's Miley, who will cost just shy of $9 mm and wasn't on our OD roster. Altogether, those 15 players are going to cost about $144 mm, about $8 mm short of last year's payroll.

Ouch. And is that before Davis, Jones, and Kim are added in?

It definitely hurts that the O's don't have many prearb guys on the roster. Basically it's only Bundy in an everyday spot.

Something has to give this offseason. I don't see how they can keep this team together as is.

[BigmanU]

I would assume Weiters & Trumbo are a start.

[oriole]

I have a feeling I'm gonna be that guy barking all winter to trade Britton...

[Crazysilver03]

I have a feeling I'm gonna be that guy barking all winter to trade Britton...

They problem will be finding good value. He is estimated at 11M with one more year of arbitration left that can range from being non-tendered to possibly costing $15M. Sure the team might net a QO offer (if it still exists) but it is a big gamble.

[jamalshw]

I have a feeling I'm gonna be that guy barking all winter to trade Britton...

Unless Angelos surprises us with a serious bump in payroll again (which seems highly unlikely given the attendance this year), I don't see how there's any other way to build a winning team other than trading Britton. The only issue is that this is a free agent market stacked with RP talent so would he be able to command that much give his projected salary and the availability on the open market without having to surrender top talent?

I don't think to fill the team's holes you need to spend too much, but I just don't see how there's any room to spend at all right now. You have Mancini that can take the DH spot (and play some 1B while Davis is at DH), but you still have a hole in RF and C and could use a few role players. Obviously, upgrading the rotation (while important) is out...it'll be Tillman, Gausman, Bundy and two out of the three of Jimenez/Gallardo/Miley. I would love to see the Orioles explore a trade of Jimenez and see if they can capitalize on his strong second half. Maybe flip him for an equally overpaid answer at C (at least until Sisco is ready) or RF?

[bpilktree]

C-Joseph 1 million

1B Davis 17 million (some deferred)

2B Schoop 3 million

SS-Hardy 12 million ( some deferred)

3B-Manny 11 million

OF-Kim 4.2 million

OF-Jones 16 million

OF- Rickard 500K

DH- Mancini 500k

Bench Flaherty 1.8 million

Bench Pena 500k

Bench-Walker 500k

Bench-Yaz 500k

SP-Tilman 10.5 Million

SP- Gausman 2.5 million

SP- Ubaldo 13.5 million

SP Bundy- 1.25 million

SP Milley- 8.75 million

RP Gallardo-11 million

RP O'day 6 million

RP Brach 3 million

RP- Givens 500K

RP- Worley 3.3 million

RP Drake 500k

CL- Britton 11.5 million

Total 140 million

[bpilktree]

C-Joseph 1 million

1B Davis 17 million (some deferred)

2B Schoop 3 million

SS-Hardy 12 million ( some deferred)

3B-Manny 11 million

OF-Kim 4.2 million

OF-Jones 16 million

OF- Rickard 500K

DH- Mancini 500k

Bench Flaherty 1.8 million

Bench Pena 500k

Bench-Walker 500k

Bench-Yaz 500k

SP-Tilman 10.5 Million

SP- Gausman 2.5 million

SP- Ubaldo 13.5 million

SP Bundy- 1.25 million

SP Milley- 8.75 million

RP Gallardo-11 million

RP O'day 6 million

RP Brach 3 million

RP- Givens 500K

RP- Worley 3.3 million

RP Drake 500k

CL- Britton 11.5 million

Total 140 million

I think Worley gets non tendered to much money with a team with little payroll flexibilty and guys like Wilson, Wright that can be long man and save around 3 million. I think payroll is around 150 million next season. So you non tender him and you have around 15 million if you want to fill the corner outfield and catcher position.

[sportsfan8703]

I think Worley gets non tendered to much money with a team with little payroll flexibilty and guys like Wilson, Wright that can be long man and save around 3 million. I think payroll is around 150 million next season. So you non tender him and you have around 15 million if you want to fill the corner outfield and catcher position.

We have to find a way to unload one of Ubaldo, Gallardo and Miley. if we're lucky enough to win a comp pick again this offseason, you can bet it will be attached with one of them.

Gallardo and Ubaldo could end up costing us millions for crappy performance. Plus two 1st/2nd rd draft picks.

People aren't going to like it but we're pretty much pot committed to win with this group of players.

[weams]

I have a feeling I'm gonna be that guy barking all winter to trade Britton...

Really? Trade Manny then too. And Tillman and Schoop. Really. Trade them.

[weams]

I think Worley gets non tendered to much money with a team with little payroll flexibilty and guys like Wilson, Wright that can be long man and save around 3 million. I think payroll is around 150 million next season. So you non tender him and you have around 15 million if you want to fill the corner outfield and catcher position.

What makes you think 150 million is reasonable after this season's attendance?

[Aristotelian]

My one prediction for the offseason is no big name free agents because of the obvious constraints. More like 2015 than 2016.

Nontender Worley, look into trade market for Ubaldo and Miley, maybe eating some amount of cash.

Re: bpilktree's list, I would put Hart above Drake to make the 25-man in April but that wouldn't affect the money

[Spy Fox]

What makes you think 150 million is reasonable after this season's attendance?

Isn't it suspected that, because of the price increase, revenue was slightly up even though attendance was down?