MLBTR Arbitration Projections

[bpilktree]

What makes you think 150 million is reasonable after this season's attendance?

The attendence was just slightly down but you also have to take in affect that there was a price increase as well. I would think with the price increase that total revenue for this season would be at or above the previous year. All it take is a 1.25 average price raise to get figures even on ticket sales. They also had in increase in TV viewers and revenue there..

[oriole]

Really? Trade Manny then too. And Tillman and Schoop. Really. Trade them.

How about no?

11 million is a lot of money for a reliever when you have an enormous hole in RF and C. If Britton has another season as successful as 2016 then imagine what arbitration will get him in 2018. Tillman will be pitching about 130 more innings than Britton, maybe more...plus the rotation is weak and the bullpen is strong.

Manny is an MVP type player so I don't really need to explain that one.

[bpilktree]

My one prediction for the offseason is no big name free agents because of the obvious constraints. More like 2015 than 2016.

Nontender Worley, look into trade market for Ubaldo and Miley, maybe eating some amount of cash.

Re: bpilktree's list, I would put Hart above Drake to make the 25-man in April but that wouldn't affect the money

Yeah I completely forgot Hart. I think Hart and Drake have the inside track and like I said i think Worley gets non tendered.

[bpilktree]

Isn't it suspected that, because of the price increase, revenue was slightly up even though attendance was down?

It actually comes to just a 1.02 cent increase in ticket price for the two to equal out. The average increase was reported to be around 3 to 7 dollars

[sportsfan8703]

What makes you think 150 million is reasonable after this season's attendance?

Tv money is king. Attendance, and concessions are peanuts compared to that. Since our owner owns MASN it's not like we're already locked into a deal with the local fox sports or something. Plus PA gets the nats money too.

I don't wanna open up the MASN can of worms but tv ratings being up 37% far outweighs the slight dip in attendance.

[Can_of_corn]

Tv money is king. Attendance, and concessions are peanuts compared to that. Since our owner owns MASN it's not like we're already locked into a deal with the local fox sports or something. Plus PA gets the nats money too.

I don't wanna open up the MASN can of worms but tv ratings being up 37% far outweighs the slight dip in attendance.

They need to be able to raise the viewership fee.

[bpilktree]

It actually comes to just a 1.02 cent increase in ticket price for the two to equal out. The average increase was reported to be around 3 to 7 dollars

If you take the median in ticket increase at 5 dollars. The revenue on attendance only would be raised by 8 .6 million dollars from the previous year.

[Frobby]

Ouch. And is that before Davis, Jones, and Kim are added in?

No, I misspoke (and I've edited my post). Those guys are included in the $144 mm. That number also includes deferred comp that won't be paid until later. Still, that doesn't leave room to acquire/retain significant free agents unless a payroll increase is forthcoming.

[VeveJones007]

They need to be able to raise the viewership fee.

A 37% ratings increase is huge when you're selling 45 minute of commercials 162 days a year, most of which is in primetime. That also makes several of the marquee in-stadium signs more valuable, but who knows how long those contracts last. It seems like Southwest and State Farm have had those signs for several years now on the outfield wall.

[weams]

The attendence was just slightly down but you also have to take in affect that there was a price increase as well. I would think with the price increase that total revenue for this season would be at or above the previous year. All it take is a 1.25 average price raise to get figures even on ticket sales. They also had in increase in TV viewers and revenue there..

I don't think the Orioles look at it that way at all fiscally.

[alaniee]

If the Orioles are smart -- they will sign machado, Schoop, Tillman, & Britton to long term contracts NOW before other teams can.

[weams]

They need to be able to raise the viewership fee.

They are unable. And at this point the cable companies are insecure about what they are really purchasing due to the litigation.

[weams]

If the Orioles are smart -- they will sign machado, Schoop, Tillman, & Britton to long term contracts NOW before other teams can.

I don't suspect those things to happen.

[Aristotelian]

If the Orioles are smart -- they will sign machado, Schoop, Tillman, & Britton to long term contracts NOW before other teams can.

One of those four would be a major coup. All of them would be practically unthinkable.

[wildcard]

Britton is a Boras client. He will go through he FA process in a couple of year. Very un likely to sign long term before that.

O's probably aren't worried about signing Schoop long term yet.

I think there is a good chance they sign Tillman this off season.

I think they will take another run at Manny. The outcome is uncertain.