Trading Manny Machado - Buster Olney Article

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Machado13 said:

Something will have to give soon. At end of the day, the big markets can spend 3x what anyone else can and still spend even after their mistakes.

all owners are rich for sure, but it's not good for the sport if it's an uneven playing field which it still is.

I think the issue is less severe now then it was when the Yankees were perennially #1 in payroll.

 

 

[Machado13]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the issue is less severe now then it was when the Yankees were perennially #1 in payroll.

 

 

I know we see it differently and that's cool

imo the Yankees have been replaced by the Dodgers, but no one complains because the Dodgers have not won the WS. However, in my eyes they still have that advantage as evidenced by the 4 straight NL west titles. You shouldn't be rewarded with division titles just because you can stash away bad contracts like Carl Crawford, etc. it's really not fair to other markets.

Anyway, I digress. I'm not trying to sway anyone just that it bugs me to see those teams not have to worry about anything monetarily. It's a big advantage over the other the "poorer" markets

[tntoriole]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the issue is less severe now then it was when the Yankees were perennially #1 in payroll.

 

 

True.  But back then it wasn't so much payroll that the Yankees purchasing power fueled because players of course were hostages. It was the huge amount they used to fund their farm system which at one point in the early 1950s had 13 teams when most AL teams had eight or less.  And the money they also had to hire more scouts than other teams, etc.  And they were also good at finding and signing the best talent, once in a lifetime, out there including Dimaggio, Mantle, Berra, Ford, etc.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

True.  But back then it wasn't so much payroll that the Yankees purchasing power fueled because players of course were hostages. It was the huge amount they used to fund their farm system which at one point in the early 1950s had 13 teams when most AL teams had eight or less.  And the money they also had to hire more scouts than other teams, etc.  And they were also good at finding and signing the best talent, once in a lifetime, out there including Dimaggio, Mantle, Berra, Ford, etc.   

I was talking about '99-'12. 

No doubt they had huge advantages in the time period you are discussing.  They used Kansas City as a farm team.

[esmd]

I don't think it's an issue of the Orioles not being able to sign Manny.  I think they certainly could.  Problem is, they wouldn't have anything left to put a decent team around him.  These huge megadeals almost always end badly for the team.  Manny is a helluva player, but is one guy on your 25 man roster really worth 15% of your payroll?  Even for a team like the Dodgers, at 223M.  Let's say it costs 35M AAV to sign Manny as FA.  That's 15% (almost 16% really) of your payroll for one guy.  That leaves 188M for 24 other guys.  And that's really too simplistic, as it doesn't account for the rest of the 40 man roster, guys on the DL, etc.  It's also further complicated by the O's not being a team that can or will spend 223M.  Let's say the O's go 170M.  That 35M is 21.8% of the payroll.

It's just a terrible value, one that only the top two or three teams can begin to afford.  As good as Manny is, it's just a bad value.  They're better off trading him and (hopefully) getting a good return that can allow them to contend.

[tntoriole]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was talking about '99-'12. 

No doubt they had huge advantages in the time period you are discussing.  They used Kansas City as a farm team.

For sure.  There is a great book from SABR that details the history of that era and how Arnold Johnson, business partner with Yankee owners Dan Topping and Del Webb, essentially colluded with them to first help finalize the move from Philly, financed the KC ballpark, then ultimately bought the team and funneled players.  Baseball having the antitrust exemption was never more absurd than during these shenanigans.

https://www.amazon.com/Kansas-City-Wrong-Half-Yankees/dp/0977743659

[wildbillhiccup]

4 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Could we get a summary for those of us who aren't insiders?

Sorry to post an run (busy at work). Here is the article with credit to Buster Olney, ESPN Senior Writer.

When Manny Machado thrived in his first days in the big leagues, he appeared to be the heir to the Baltimore Orioles legacy left behind by Cal Ripken Jr. -- the multidimensional player a franchise could build around and, even in the worst of times, someone so good that he could be marketed as hope to fans.

But the window of opportunity for the Orioles to sign Machado to a long-term deal has probably passed, and Machado is just two winters away from reaching free agency and becoming a rare case of a 26-year-old star who hits the open market.

Unless Machado suffers a career-altering injury in the next two seasons, he will be in line to land a deal worth hundreds of millions of dollars in the winter of 2018-19, with the Phillies or Yankees or Dodgers or some other big-market team. Mike Trout is widely regarded as baseball's best player, but Machado is in the next-best conversation, and he's getting better.

Last season, Machado had career highs in batting average (.294) and slugging percentage (.533), and since he broke into the big leagues, Machado is fifth in defensive runs saved despite missing significant time to knee injuries. He and Nolan Arenado are considered the best third-base defenders in the sport, and Machado also could shift to his natural position at shortstop, which he has done as needed for the Orioles.

The website MLBTradeRumors.com projects Machado to make $11.2 million in arbitration in 2017, which would place his earnings to date at somewhere in the range of $20 million, including his amateur draft bonus. This means that at this stage in his career, Machado has the financial leverage to afford to wait for free agency. Talks between the player and the Orioles earlier in Machado's career did not reach the finish line, and now there's virtually no chance they will find a middle ground on a contract, given the riches that await Machado on the horizon.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

I don't see a Manny trade which would be in the huge category taking place as a midseason deadline deal.  Only contenders will deal for a short term use of Manny and if they are contending in midseason, they likely already have a 3rd baseman and disrupting a team in contention with an every day player replacing another everyday player is tricky.  Not like adding a pitcher.  I think it either gets done in this winter or next winter, but actually I really think it does not get done and he walks for a pick after 2018. 

I think you're grossly underestimating the willing of big market teams to stack the deck and overspend mid-season. Plus, most teams will view Manny as either a 3B or SS. His position versatility helps.  

[MDtransplant757]

3 hours ago, CheeryO said:

If Manfred thinks baseball needs more playoff spots then he needs to be fired immediately.  The season is already too long as it is.  Even without more playoff spots the season should be shortened by two or three weeks.

I think if the season is shortened, then MLB can have a hockey style playoff bracket, which I've been wanting for years now. 

[weams]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

They need to trade them if they can't resign them, letting them leave with a comp pick is bad management of resources

Many people seem to think that is what the club will do. Many people see them running the thing out. And then riding off. 

[MDtransplant757]

10 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Sorry to post an run (busy at work). Here is the article with credit to Buster Olney, ESPN Senior Writer.

When Manny Machado thrived in his first days in the big leagues, he appeared to be the heir to the Baltimore Orioles legacy left behind by Cal Ripken Jr. -- the multidimensional player a franchise could build around and, even in the worst of times, someone so good that he could be marketed as hope to fans.

But the window of opportunity for the Orioles to sign Machado to a long-term deal has probably passed, and Machado is just two winters away from reaching free agency and becoming a rare case of a 26-year-old star who hits the open market.

Unless Machado suffers a career-altering injury in the next two seasons, he will be in line to land a deal worth hundreds of millions of dollars in the winter of 2018-19, with the Phillies or Yankees or Dodgers or some other big-market team. Mike Trout is widely regarded as baseball's best player, but Machado is in the next-best conversation, and he's getting better.

Last season, Machado had career highs in batting average (.294) and slugging percentage (.533), and since he broke into the big leagues, Machado is fifth in defensive runs saved despite missing significant time to knee injuries. He and Nolan Arenado are considered the best third-base defenders in the sport, and Machado also could shift to his natural position at shortstop, which he has done as needed for the Orioles.

The website MLBTradeRumors.com projects Machado to make $11.2 million in arbitration in 2017, which would place his earnings to date at somewhere in the range of $20 million, including his amateur draft bonus. This means that at this stage in his career, Machado has the financial leverage to afford to wait for free agency. Talks between the player and the Orioles earlier in Machado's career did not reach the finish line, and now there's virtually no chance they will find a middle ground on a contract, given the riches that await Machado on the horizon.

Machado said his agents left an offer on DD's desk in ST this year, so there is hope

[CheeryO]

2 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

I think if the season is shortened, then MLB can have a hockey style playoff bracket, which I've been wanting for years now. 

For years we've been hearing the problem with baseball is that the games are too long.  This is BS.  The problem with baseball is that the season is too long.  Of course owners and the commissioner always want more games.  More games means more revenue.  But by adding more games to the season you just create a more boring, seemingly endless product that drives would be fans to yawn at the mention the of the postseason -- unless by a miracle the Cubs and Indians are playing in the World Series for 7 games.  

[MDtransplant757]

2 minutes ago, CheeryO said:

For years we've been hearing the problem with baseball is that the games are too long.  This is BS.  The problem with baseball is that the season is too long.  Of course owners and the commissioner always want more games.  More games means more revenue.  But by adding more games to the season you just create a more boring, seemingly endless product that drives would be fans to yawn at the mention the of the postseason -- unless by a miracle the Cubs and Indians are playing in the World Series for 7 games.  

Pretty much. They need to shorten the season back to 154 or maybe lower. If MLB had the same playoff philosophy as the NHL does, playoff baseball would be just as fun as playoff hockey nationally

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Pretty much. They need to shorten the season back to 154 or maybe lower. If MLB had the same playoff philosophy as the NHL does, playoff baseball would be just as fun as playoff hockey nationally

Make it like the NHL?  How, by setting it up so a team's best pitcher can make every start?  Playoff hockey is what 80% about who has the hot goalie?

[MDtransplant757]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Make it like the NHL?  How, by setting it up so a team's best pitcher can make every start?  Playoff hockey is what 80% about who has the hot goalie?

Something like that. That's why the Caps never do well against Pittsburgh or the Rangers. What i was getting at was that the format has the potential to really punctuate how awesome playoff baseball is.