An inconvenient truth

[Can_of_corn]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

This is a really tired argument.

If the O's do not trade Hader for Bud Norris they may not have gone to the playoff in 2014 when Bud went 15-8.

If the O's don't trade for ERod  for Miller they may not have won enough games to win the division  and beat the Tigers in the division series,

And  so what if they traded 26th round draft choice, 155 pound  Davies.   They kept 1st rounder Gausman and Bundy. 3rd round Wright who went 9-1 with a 2.22 ERA  at AAA that year, and 10th rounder  Wilson.   GM don't get the benefit of hindsight.

In 1983 the O's acquired  Todd  Cruz to play 3rd base on June 30th after rookie Leo Hernandez, Aurelio  Rodriguez and Glenn Guliver could not handle the position.  So acquirig players to fill holes in mid season  is not a Duquette invention.

GMs want to win.  Fans want to win.  So  when  Dan does what it  takes  to win more games than  anyone else over the last 5 years,  it doesn't seem right to complain about who he traded to accomplish the teams success.   Its a heck of  a lot better than 14 losing seasons.

Sorry for getting on my soap box, but that argument really gets to me because  it is often said  without  the context of what this team has achieved,

 

I was explaining why the O's can't build an inexpensive supporting cast around Manny and Davis.  That has nothing to do with what was accomplished in the last few years.

 

Do you disagree with the point I was actually making?

 

 

[weams]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was explaining why the O's can't build an inexpensive supporting cast around Manny and Davis.  That has nothing to do with what was accomplished in the last few years.

 

Do you disagree with the point I was actually making?

 

 

I thought that was what Texas and John Hart and Buck tried to do with Alex.

[wildcard]

49 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was explaining why the O's can't build an inexpensive supporting cast around Manny and Davis.  That has nothing to do with what was accomplished in the last few years.

 

Do you disagree with the point I was actually making?

No I don't.  Dan builds an inexpensive supporting staff every year.   Some come from the farm, some from the Rule 6 draft, some from the waiver wire, some from trades, etc.  And the O's have went to the playoffs 3 or the last 5 years.  The O's used 48 players last year.  Many of them very cheap.   If a player is on the 40 man roster he has a decent chance of getting called up.  And late in the season the O's add cheaply.   This past year Tommy Hunter for 100K was just one of them

Right now the O's have Hart, Givens, Rickard, Mancini, Tavarez, Wilson, Wright all earning around .535m.  Joesph at 1M. Flaherty at 1.7m and Bundy at 1.8m.   That is 10 players out of 25 or 26 that are pretty cheap.  And Dan is not done.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

29 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

You do realize that the guys you mentioned mostly fall into the -1 to 1 WAR range?  You know, replacement level?

I guess if Manny puts up a 12 win season and Davis hits like 2014 and fields like 2016 it could work...

 

But we all know the only Oriole to put up a 12 win season is Bud Norris.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You do realize that the guys you mentioned mostly fall into the -1 to 1 WAR range?  You know, replacement level?

I guess if Manny puts up a 12 win season and Davis hits like 2014 and fields like 2016 it could work...

 

But we all know the only Oriole to put up a 12 win season is Bud Norris.

You said "I was explaining why the O's can't build an inexpensive supporting cast around Manny and Davis."   That is what I responded  to.  Of course, they are 1 War guys.  That what a supporting staff does.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You said "I was explaining why the O's can't build an inexpensive supporting cast around Manny and Davis."   That is what I responded  to.  Of course, they are 1 War guys.  That what a supporting staff does.

Not really.  Not to that extent at any rate, not if you want to make the playoffs.

I guess that would be a good way to build a 75 win team.

And they are not 1 WAR guys, they are -1 WAR to 1 WAR guys.

At least based on what they have actually done.

 

[MagicBird]

This trade Manny and trade Britton talk gets old.  It would be like a bunch of Cowboys fans saying they should trade Dak & Zeke before they get too expensive.  

Prospects are just that, prospects.  You have no idea how any will turn out.  In Manny and Britton you know what you have.

The Orioles will sign Manny long term IF he wants to stay in Baltimore.  Maybe Zach as well.  The team has the money and can do it if they want too.  And the idea that there wont be any money left for other players is absurd.  Even DD's comments are just posturing out in the open at this point.  

Enjoy the fact that we have been winning and watching winning baseball after that 14 year run thru hell.  I really think that 14 year period has affected how so many view the baseball world.  Always looking years down the road for success instead of enjoying it now and realizing that it can keep going and wont all come crashing down if one or two players is signed to a big deal.

The Chris Davis deal wont cripple the franchise and neither will a Trumbo deal if they do that.  And they can still sign Manny and Zach if they want too.

 

Manny should play for no other team than Baltimore his entire career.  You dont let guys like him go.

 

 

 

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

We made the playoffs without Manny for 2/3 of the 2012 season.  

We made the playoffs without Manny for half of the 2014 season, and advanced to the ALCS against three Cy Young winners without Manny in 2014.  

Manny OPSed was sub-.760 in both 2012 and 2014 when he did play.  

We missed the playoffs in 2013 and 2015 with Manny playing 156 and 162 games.  

Look, clearly Manny is a huge asset to the team.  157 games from Manny was a necessary (but not sufficient) factor in our 2016 WC run.  

But the Orioles can be a successful franchise without him if we play our cards right.  We don't need to spend insane money on him that will prevent the team from keeping or acquiring any other pieces around him.  

I like Manny, but not enough to want our team to be a one-trick pony.  Paying him $35 million a year for ten years won't buy him extra at bats in the lineup, or enable him to play two infield positions at once.     

While I don't disagree with the point you are making, I doubt we would have made the playoffs in 2012 without Manny.   We were 60-51 (.541) before he got called up, 33-18 (.647) after he joined the team.   I'm not saying his addition was the only factor (e.g., Nate McLouth joined the team a few days before Manny), but I think Manny was very critical to our playoff run in 2012.   2014 is more debatable (the team was 47-35 with him, 49-31 without him and ran away with the division).  

[webbrick2010]

I fully expect the O's to chase the WC spot the next two seasons, keep Manny and Britton until they are free agents and get a single compensation pick for each.

Not what I would do but it it has its merits and IMO that is what the O's will do. Then all we have to do is lose 100 games a year in 2019 & 2020 and draft the next Manny. Be back to winning in 2021/2022

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was explaining why the O's can't build an inexpensive supporting cast around Manny and Davis.  That has nothing to do with what was accomplished in the last few years.

 

Do you disagree with the point I was actually making?

 

 

I disagree with it.  Of course you can build a competitive team for $100M around Manny and Davis.  And that's with a stagnant payroll.  3-4 years from now we may be looking at $180-$200M.

Just because they don't have Hader, Rodriguez, and Davies doesn't mean they are going to be awful for years to come.

 

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, MagicBird said:

This trade Manny and trade Britton talk gets old.  It would be like a bunch of Cowboys fans saying they should trade Dak & Zeke before they get too expensive.  

Prospects are just that, prospects.  You have no idea how any will turn out.  In Manny and Britton you know what you have.

The Orioles will sign Manny long term IF he wants to stay in Baltimore.  Maybe Zach as well.  The team has the money and can do it if they want too.  And the idea that there wont be any money left for other players is absurd.  Even DD's comments are just posturing out in the open at this point.  

Enjoy the fact that we have been winning and watching winning baseball after that 14 year run thru hell.  I really think that 14 year period has affected how so many view the baseball world.  Always looking years down the road for success instead of enjoying it now and realizing that it can keep going and wont all come crashing down if one or two players is signed to a big deal.

The Chris Davis deal wont cripple the franchise and neither will a Trumbo deal if they do that.  And they can still sign Manny and Zach if they want too.

 

Manny should play for no other team than Baltimore his entire career.  You dont let guys like him go.

 

Sounds like you are trying to wish away the facts.

1) The O's will never have the revenue that that the wealthy teams in baseball have.  That limits their budget.

2) Boras will make sure Britton hits the open market.  There is no stopping that.  And when it happens the O's will be out bid.

So if the O's don't want to end up with 3rd round draft choices for these two players they have to take some action before they leave.  Its plain and simple.

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

I disagree with it.  Of course you can build a competitive team for $100M around Manny and Davis.  And that's with a stagnant payroll.  3-4 years from now we may be looking at $180-$200M.

Just because they don't have Hader, Rodriguez, and Davies doesn't mean they are going to be awful for years to come.

 

Sure it can be done, but can it be done by the Orioles given their current situation?

And you are selling Dan short if you think the only damage he has done is trading the young pitching away, the man has forfeited multiple draft picks, traded another and sold two.  You throw six more first and second round picks into the mix and I bet the farm looks a lot better.

[FanSince88]

31 minutes ago, MagicBird said:

 

The Chris Davis deal wont cripple the franchise and neither will a Trumbo deal if they do that.  And they can still sign Manny and Zach if they want too.

 

 

This team can't even get more than 15K fans to show up at a home game in September in the midst of a hot playoff race.  We are a small market team, mid-market at best.  It's just the reality.  Do you think a perennially successful mid-market team like the Cardinals would pay crazy money to Manny without a strong farm system to back it up?  They let Pujols walk and were better for it.  

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, wildcard said:

This is a really tired argument.

If the O's do not trade Hader for Bud Norris they may not have gone to the playoff in 2014 when Bud went 15-8.

If the O's don't trade for ERod  for Miller they may not have won enough games to win the division  and beat the Tigers in the division series,

And  so what if they traded 26th round draft choice, 155 pound  Davies.   They kept 1st rounder Gausman and Bundy. 3rd round Wright who went 9-1 with a 2.22 ERA  at AAA that year, and 10th rounder  Wilson.   GM don't get the benefit of hindsight.

In 1983 the O's acquired  Todd  Cruz to play 3rd base on June 30th after rookie Leo Hernandez, Aurelio  Rodriguez and Glenn Guliver could not handle the position.  So acquirig players to fill holes in mid season  is not a Duquette invention.

GMs want to win.  Fans want to win.  So  when  Dan does what it  takes  to win more games than  anyone else over the last 5 years,  it doesn't seem right to complain about who he traded to accomplish the teams success.   Its a heck of  a lot better than 14 losing seasons.

Sorry for getting on my soap box, but that argument really gets to me because  it is often said  without  the context of what this team has achieved,

 

While I can understand your argument, I think it's misleading to refer to the "26th round draft choice, 155 pound Davies."   First of all, while it is correct that Davies was chosen in the 26th round, that's because other teams didn't think they could sign him.    The O's paid him a $575,000 signing bonus, which is basically third-round money.    Second of all, by the time he was traded, Davies had been in our system for 3.7 seasons and had thrived at every level.    Going into the 2015 season, BA, BP, Milb.com and OH all ranked Davies ahead of both Wright and Miller, and there was nothing that happened in 2015 to change that evaluation.   

In another post, you dismissed Josh Hader as being "a 19th round draft pick."    Again I'd say "so what?"   By the time of the trade, Hader was clearly a top 10 prospect for us.

If you want to make the argument for trading these guys to try to make a playoff push, fine.     I was OK with the Norris trade, against the Parra trade.    But don't minimize guys based on where they were drafted, which has little or no relevance once they've got a track record in the minors and scouts have seen their stuff at that level.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

While I can understand your argument, I think it's misleading to refer to the "26th round draft choice, 155 pound Davies."   First of all, while it is correct that Davies was chosen in the 26th round, that's because other teams didn't think they could sign him.    The O's paid him a $575,000 signing bonus, which is basically third-round money.    Second of all, by the time he was traded, Davies had been in our system for 3.7 seasons and had thrived at every level.    Going into the 2015 season, BA, BP, Milb.com and OH all ranked Davies ahead of both Wright and Miller, and there was nothing that happened in 2015 to change that evaluation.   

In another post, you dismissed Josh Hader as being "a 19th round draft pick."    Again I'd say "so what?"   By the time of the trade, Hader was clearly a top 10 prospect for us.

If you want to make the argument for trading these guys to try to make a playoff push, fine.     I was OK with the Norris trade, against the Parra trade.    But don't minimize guys based on where they were drafted, which has little or no relevance once they've got a track record in the minors and scouts have seen their stuff at that level.

Particularly if they were drafted before slotting was introduced.