Perlozzo--from the Cumberland Times News

[66-70-83-??]

That is part of OBP's value, but not the most important part.

The most important part is that getting on base means not getting out. Period. The higher % of time a player gets on base, the fewer outs he makes.

You only get 27 outs in a game. The fewer a player makes, the more additional at-bats he's buying for the entire lineup later in the game. Which means the more runs the team will score overall.

A lower OBP means more outs, which means you get fewer plate appearances for the entire lineup. Which means fewer runs scored by your team in the long haul.

Semantics.

You and Baltfan agree, you are basically saying the same thing.

Of course it is important to get on base rather than make an out.

But, the goal of any runner getting on base is to score.

[SteveA]

Semantics.

You and Baltfan agree, you are basically saying the same thing.

Of course it is important to get on base rather than make an out.

But, the goal of any runner getting on base is to score.

Not semantics at all. Yes, you need to score. But even if you get on base and don't score, you have done your team some good....you have extended the game by NOT using up one of the remaining outs.

Imagine this. Man on 2nd. Two outs. Mr. Goodonbasebutslow draws a walk, while Mr. Fasterbutlessonbase would have gotten out. Now the next batter gets a single, scoring the guy from 2nd. Next guy gets out.

You say that Mr. Goodonbasebutslow wasted his at bat because he didn't score? NOT TRUE. By failing to get out, he extended the inning so another run could score.

Another situation: Bases loaded, 2 outs. Mr. Goodonbasebutslow draws a walk. Forces in a run. Mr. Fasterbutlessonbase would have gotten out. Once again, Mr. Goodonbasebutslow is the better guy to have up. It got the team AT LEAST one run. (And maybe the next batter hits a grand slam, then there's a pitching change, the next reliever can't locate his fastball and gives up 3 rmore runs. Here, Mr. Goodonbasebutslow made the difference in his team getting ***8*** more runs that they may not have had with Mr. Fasterbutlessonbase.

Yes, every once in a while Mr. Goodonbasebutslow will fail to score a run that Mr.Fasterbutlessonbase would have gotten. But I think that in the long haul, the extra at-bats throughout the game for the 9 guys in the lineup that you get with Mr. Goodonbasebutslow, will MORE than make up for that occasional run cost by his speed. Every time you get on base, you extend the game by one more batter. You make the pitcher work from the stretch, you keep an inning going that could lead to any number of extra runs, you make the pitcher throw additional pitches which could get him out of the game sooner. The benefits FAR outweigh the fact that you are less likely to be able to steal yourself into scoring position and get an extra run because of it.

[Leitch]

Not semantics at all. Yes, you need to score. But even if you get on base and don't score, you have done your team some good....you have extended the game by NOT using up one of the remaining outs.

Imagine this. Man on 2nd. Two outs. Mr. Goodonbasebutslow draws a walk, while Mr. Fasterbutlessonbase would have gotten out. Now the next batter gets a single, scoring the guy from 2nd. Next guy gets out.

You say that Mr. Goodonbasebutslow wasted his at bat because he didn't score? NOT TRUE. By failing to get out, he extended the inning so another run could score.

Mr Goodonbasebutslow might take Jake Peavy 3-2 every at bat, while mister Fasterbutlessonbase might allow Peavy to resolve at bats more quickly and stay in the game longer

[Baltimoron]

Truly I am not missing the point. I should not have used names in the post becuase it caused confusion. My point, and I think Perlozzo's too, is that because Millar is so slow his .364 OBP is overrated. OBP's value is that when a person is on base they can score. If you are slow, you are less likely to score than someone who is faster. Obviously, that doesn't mean that a fast .317 OBP guy is worth more than a slow .364 OBP guy. But surely there is a difference between the value of a fast player with a .364 OBP versus a slow one because he is more likely to be able to go from 1st to 3rd etc... (I am not talking about stealing bases) and therefore more likely to score. I am sure there is some stat that takes this into account, I just don't know of it. But there does have to be some negative adjustment to Millar's OBP based on his lack of speed versus the average player.

Baserunning

Dan Fox had Mora about 7 runs better on the bases in 2006. He calculates baserunning advancing on ground outs (Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs, or EqGAR), advancing on outs in the air (Equivalent Air Advancement Runs, or EqAAR), advancing on hits (EqHAR) and attempted stolen bases as well as pick offs (Equivalent Stolen Base Runs, or EqSBR).

Methodology link

[Baltimoron]

The player with the .317 OBP had better be one heckuva base runner to make up for the 47 point difference in OBP - and considering said player is Melvin Mora, we know that isn't the case. So, yes, you are missing the point.

True, but Mora out slugs him by like 35ish points, which while not worth the same amount as OBP, still helps narrow the gap, especially when we know Millar is one of the worst baserunners in the league and Mora is above average. Their EQAs are only .259 to .269. While its true Millar's true talent is probably a slugging above .400, Mora's "true" OBP talent is probably above .317 too.

[ledzepp8]

A lot of these quotes from Perlozzo just prove what people on here have said about him. He just doesn't get it. He talks Baez and how he hasn't pitched well and that it threw the bullpen off kilter and he then had to overexpose other pitchers...that was the flaw for him, he says. He basically admits that if everything doesn't go as he plans that he doesn't know how to adapt. Baez hasn't pitched well, that doesn't mean that you suddenly start using worse pitchers in his role just because you don't want to move Walker and Bradford out of theirs. Maybe if you had pitched Walker and Bradford more than one batter a game at times, you might have had better results.

I know Sam is upset, but there has to be some accountability here on his part. If he thinks he made no mistakes, then I've got a bridge to sell him.

[Guest rochester]

'tis called burning the bridge

<img src=http://www.failme.net/img/210905_0.jpg></img>

[muckdogswest]

This is my first of many posts. I guess it took all of this to get me going.I agree that it happened 3 weeks too late but we finally get a manager to speak out against players that suck and you vilify him for it. All he did was tell the truth about a team of stiffs and you people get offended. He had to shuffle around 25 stiffs that could never play for a yankee team, so in my opinion there was never a right move to make because anything that he did had the chance of blowing up in his face. We all knew before the season started that he was going to be fired this year. And we know that whom ever the next full time mgr is he will be fired at the end of next year or begining of the following year. I love baseball and I love the O's but this season is over and it sucks. I doubt that I watch 5 total hours of O's games this year. I adopted the Dodgers about 5 years ago and the Nats this year so at least the season isnt over. And I am really enjoying the Ncaa world series.

[Optimum O]

Good for Sam for speaking up. They are paying him through '08 so he had nothing to lose. Flanny must go. Duquette could work with McPhail. But this whole idea of former Orioles maintain positions in management, coaching, tv and radio is a joke. Clear house of all of them and offer them stands on Eutaw Street. Anyone for a Flanny Fajita or a Crowley Corn Cob on a stick?

[Guest rochester]

This is my first of many posts. I guess it took all of this to get me going.I agree that it happened 3 weeks too late but we finally get a manager to speak out against players that suck and you vilify him for it. All he did was tell the truth about a team of stiffs and you people get offended. He had to shuffle around 25 stiffs that could never play for a yankee team, so in my opinion there was never a right move to make because anything that he did had the chance of blowing up in his face. We all knew before the season started that he was going to be fired this year. And we know that whom ever the next full time mgr is he will be fired at the end of next year or begining of the following year. I love baseball and I love the O's but this season is over and it sucks. I doubt that I watch 5 total hours of O's games this year. I adopted the Dodgers about 5 years ago and the Nats this year so at least the season isnt over. And I am really enjoying the Ncaa world series.

My burning bridge was supposed to be funny:rolleyes:

I believe that Sammy told it like he thought it is...however, I also know that are 2 sides to every story and that's why I did not jump on the fact that he felt justification in saying he did not want Williams signed...yup, a guy like Sammy trying to make a living...think how he feels. Unnecessary...

[CrimsonTribe]

"It doesn't matter how many right moves you make and it still doesn't work. The manager gets fired. But not with the Dodgers. They fire their hitting coach. Here, we keep reshuffling managers."

What right moves Sam?

[CrimsonTribe]

This is my first of many posts. I guess it took all of this to get me going.I agree that it happened 3 weeks too late but we finally get a manager to speak out against players that suck and you vilify him for it. All he did was tell the truth about a team of stiffs and you people get offended. He had to shuffle around 25 stiffs that could never play for a yankee team, so in my opinion there was never a right move to make because anything that he did had the chance of blowing up in his face. We all knew before the season started that he was going to be fired this year. And we know that whom ever the next full time mgr is he will be fired at the end of next year or begining of the following year. I love baseball and I love the O's but this season is over and it sucks. I doubt that I watch 5 total hours of O's games this year. I adopted the Dodgers about 5 years ago and the Nats this year so at least the season isnt over. And I am really enjoying the Ncaa world series.

Who could never play for a Yankee team? Adopted the Dodgers and Nats? You don't sound like much of an O's fan to me.

[oriole_way]

Regarding Millar and the clogging up the bases comment:

I remember Dusty Baker actually making this comment a year or two ago and widely getting ridiculed for it. But other "baseball men" have said it as well.

I wonder what Billy Beane thinks about these guys' baseball acumen.

Of course 1 game isn't representative of a whole season, but I noted in today's game that Patterson didn't score from 2nd on a basehit by Tejada (held at 3rd), Markakis tried to score from first on a double by Tejada and should have been out but the catcher dropped the ball, and Tejada didn't score from 2nd on a single by Huff (held at 3rd).

Basically, my point is that it would have been no different if Millar was the baserunner in these instances, except possibly in the Markakis play at the plate.

[oriole_way]

Who could never play for a Yankee team? Adopted the Dodgers and Nats? You don't sound like much of an O's fan to me.

Come on now. Dude's a real fan....of like 15 teams.

[Rockbird]

Wow, those are some combative comments. Not saying he's not right about most of it, and it truly shows, yet again what a complete mess this organization is with the lack of communication and continuity. But for comparison, does anyone have access to the archive article from after Lee Mazzilli was fired? He was just as thrown under the bus, if not more, and all I remember were positive quotes thanking the ownership and fans and supporting the players ("my guys"). Just odd that we all though that was losing the clubhouse at the time, looks like it was much worse under Sam.