Make your best offer to Chris Tillman

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I'm continuously amazed at how little respect Tillman gets here.  Since 2012 the guy is 65-33 with a 3.81 ERA.    There are only 16 pitchers in MLB who have won more games in that time.   Only 28 have thrown more innings.   If that's a no. 3 starter then you have very high standards.   

And I know, wins are meaningless,  yada yada.    I happen to like winning games.    When Tillman's on the mound, I like our chances.   

So 16 pitchers have won more games.

How many teams have won more games than the Orioles in that time period?

 

And that kiddies is why wins don't matter.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So 16 pitchers have won more games.

How many teams have won more games than the Orioles in that time period?

 

And that kiddies is why wins don't matter.

Not in my opinion.    Tillman is a big reason why the Orioles have been a top-winning team the last 5 years.     Does the team have a .663 winning percentage the last five years?   Do the starting pitchers?    Do any of the other starting pitchers on the team have a winning percentage even close to that?

Look, I'm not saying he's an ace or that wins are the only criterion.    But I like pitchers who win.    I like watching my team win.   Tillman's a winner and that's a guy worth keeping if you can.   

[Can_of_corn]

It is not in any way surprising or telling that a pitcher who has been on one of the winningest teams in the last five years has accumulated a fair number of wins over that period of time.

I'm not saying Tillman is bad, I'm not saying I think he's a #3, I am certainly not disrespecting him.

But wins are a very poor way to try and prove ability.

[Babypowder]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I'm continuously amazed at how little respect Tillman gets here.  Since 2012 the guy is 65-33 with a 3.81 ERA.    There are only 16 pitchers in MLB who have won more games in that time.   Only 28 have thrown more innings.   If that's a no. 3 starter then you have very high standards.   

And I know, wins are meaningless,  yada yada.    I happen to like winning games.    When Tillman's on the mound, I like our chances.   

I can't speak for others but along with thinking wins and record are a poor way to judge a pitcher, ERA is pretty bad too.

fWAR had Tillman around the 50th best starter last season and he's right around there for all starters over the last 3 seasons as well. That feels about right to me. He's a solid, middle of the rotation starter. That's respectable to me. He just isn't a top of the rotation guy despite collecting wins while being durable on a team that has won a lot in recent seasons.

[esmd]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

I'm continuously amazed at how little respect Tillman gets here.  Since 2012 the guy is 65-33 with a 3.81 ERA.    There are only 16 pitchers in MLB who have won more games in that time.   Only 28 have thrown more innings.   If that's a no. 3 starter then you have very high standards.   

And I know, wins are meaningless,  yada yada.    I happen to like winning games.    When Tillman's on the mound, I like our chances.   

This.

[esmd]

12 hours ago, Babypowder said:

I can't speak for others but along with thinking wins and record are a poor way to judge a pitcher, ERA is pretty bad too.

fWAR had Tillman around the 50th best starter last season and he's right around there for all starters over the last 3 seasons as well. That feels about right to me. He's a solid, middle of the rotation starter. That's respectable to me. He just isn't a top of the rotation guy despite collecting wins while being durable on a team that has won a lot in recent seasons.

IMO, this post is a perfect example of depending too much on stats to form an opinion, and not enough on what your eyes see between the lines.  Tillman may not be a #1 guy, but he's clearly the best we've got, and he'd be a solid #2 in any rotation in MLB, IMO.  If he leaves, the Orioles instantly become significantly worse.  And that's just his performance, it doesn't take into account the leadership and intangibles he brings to the table.  The dude exemplifies what it means to be an Oriole, and clearly wants to be an Oriole going forward.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2017/01/tillman-offers-advice-to-givens-regarding-wbc.html

He's invested in this organization.  Now they need to invest in him.  Letting him leave would be the biggest mistake since letting Mussina leave.  He's the best starting pitcher by far that we've had since Moose.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, esmd said:

IMO, this post is a perfect example of depending too much on stats to form an opinion, and not enough on what your eyes see between the lines.  Tillman may not be a #1 guy, but he's clearly the best we've got, and he'd be a solid #2 in any rotation in MLB, IMO.  If he leaves, the Orioles instantly become significantly worse.  And that's just his performance, it doesn't take into account the leadership and intangibles he brings to the table.  The dude exemplifies what it means to be an Oriole, and clearly wants to be an Oriole going forward.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2017/01/tillman-offers-advice-to-givens-regarding-wbc.html

He's invested in this organization.  Now they need to invest in him.  Letting him leave would be the biggest mistake since letting Mussina leave.  He's the best starting pitcher by far that we've had since Moose.

I actually don't know if he's the best we've got (Gausman may be about to surpass him and it wouldn't surprise me if Bundy did), and I also don't know if he'd be a "solid #2 in any rotation in MLB" (he might not be #2 in Boston's rotation, for example).    But he'd be a solid #2 in most rotations, he doesn't shirk from being thrust in the #1 spot in our rotation, and as you said, he's got good leadership qualities.    A team needs guys like this in order to contend.    The alternatives to retaining him are what, exactly?   Find someone who is equally good and pay that player instead?   Downgrade to some guy you can get on a 3-year deal and hope he comes through?    Find the money  to upgrade to someone who will be more expensive?    Hope that one of our AAA guys can replace him?   I'll take the known quantity who has proven he can succeed in our organization.   Even if it doesn't work out, I'd rather make that mistake than make a mistake with an outsider or a long shot minor leaguer.   

[theobird]

I would offer Tillman a 4/60 deal and see if he likes it.  To me, that's a fair deal for both sides. 15 million a year over the next 4 years. He has been a big, durable guy for us and takes the ball and competes. He is the most reliable we have had. I do not think he is a #1 starter, but he is a good reliable mid rotation guy.

[esmd]

Also, for those saying he's not a #1 starter....yes, I agree, but look at what #1 starters get paid (Price, Scherzer, Lester, etc.).  Tillman at 5/90 is well in line with his value.  The O's would be foolish to let him leave if he would take that extension.  They can backload it some (not too much so that they have some payroll flexibility for other players, allowing for revenue growth (hopefully) in future years.  Make the opening offer 5/80 and structure it like so:

2017 - 10.05 million (age 29 season - last season of arb eligibility)

2018 - $15M (age 30)

2019 - $15M (age 31)

2020 - $16M (age 32)

2021 - $16M (age 33)

2022 - $18M (age 34)

Sell it as 5/80 or 6/90 if you want to include this year, whatever.  That's a fair, market level deal for Tillman, IMO.  And it gives you a pitcher with a solid track record though his remaining prime years.  I really think this might get it done.  By 2022, even scrubs like Ubaldo and Garrado will probably be pulling in 15-16/year on the FA market, so paying Tillman $18M, even if he's declining a bit, won't be hateful.  Now, there's no guarantee this gets it done, you might need to go to 90M over the last 5 years, but even if you go 17M in '18 & '19, 18M in '20 and '21, and 19M in 2022, that's still not a hateful deal for the club, assuming he puts up performances in line with his past performances (again, 2015 was the outlier, IMO).  You could also go the deferred money route like they did with Davis to help offset some of the cost.

Pay the man, Dan!

[UpstateNYfan]

Tillman has  grown on me in the past couple years. He seems have matured and, although still has trouble in early innings, seems to be able to fight through it. He is not that mystical #1, but they are rare. I really don't mind paying a bit more for home grown talent (yes, he was adopted early in his career). While under control, those players are "underpaid". In baseball, unfortunately, you pay for past performance and gamble on the future. 4/60 or thereabouts seem reasonable. I often wonder how many players feel after leaving their club when given a reasonable offer by the team. A guy like Markakis, moving to a losing team, keeping his family north, pressure of producing on a new team, league...was it worth it? 40 mill or 50 mill isn't going to change your lifestyle. I know agents and the union want the highest salary possible, but I don't think that's necessarily in the best interest of the player.

[backwardsk]

Danny Duffy just extended for 5/65, including his last arbitration season.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

Danny Duffy just extended for 5/65, including his last arbitration season.

Hmmm, that's interesting.    Tillman has a bit more of a track record than Duffy, who just pitched enough innings to qualify for the first time.   I'd say Duffy sets the floor for what Tillman would get, and I'd expect Tillman to get a bit more.    

[sportsfan8703]

Chen got 5/80 guaranteed with an opt out.  

Porcello got 4/82.5

Duffy 5/65

Just some recent deals that come to mind.  I'd say a reasonable deal would be at least 5/80 and he could probably get around 6/100 on the FA market next year with a good 2017.  

[webbrick2010]

I'm with good old Petey on this

I don't like 4-5 year deals for starting pitchers especially when they are already on the wrong side of 30. I'm okay with letting Tillman walk. I'm betting the O's have already gotten his best years.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I'm with good old Petey on this

I don't like 4-5 year deals for starting pitchers especially when they are already on the wrong side of 30. I'm okay with letting Tillman walk. I'm betting the O's have already gotten his best years.

So what's your plan for filling that spot, and Ubaldo's?