More hilarious than ever: PECOTA projects the Orioles at 71-91

[Frobby]

BP had an article yesterday comparing the PECOTA projected standings to what Las Vegas (Bovada) is saying.    The Orioles have the 2nd-biggest discrepancy, 80.5 (Vegas) v. 73 (PECOTA).    Only the Cardinals (8.5 game spread) were larger.   Vegas thinks PECOTA overrates the Rays, Brewers and White Sox by 6.5 games each.
 

Quote

 

We’ve heard a lot from the fine people of St. Louis, Baltimore, and Kansas City since this year’s PECOTA projections were released, and Orioles and Royals fans could have just copy-and-pasted their complaints from previous years. PECOTA has underrated both the Orioles and Royals on a regular basis, although it’s worth noting that Bovada assigns the Royals the AL’s fourth-lowest over/under. There’s certainly a difference between 76.5 wins and 71 wins, but the general viewpoint of the team is pretty similar.

Bovada isn’t exactly a believer in the Orioles either, giving them an over/under of 80.5 after they won 89 games last season and at least 81 games every season since 2012.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31276

[SteveA]

On 2/7/2017 at 8:51 AM, Frobby said:

PECOTA has the Orioles scoring 712 runs (down 32 from last year) and allowing 818 (up 103), leading to a 71-91 record and a last place finish.   At least they're consistent!  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

OPS Projections:

Davis .834

Schoop .727

Machado .813

Hardy .664

Kim .773

Jones .777

Smith .759

Trumbo .779

Castillo .724

Joseph .641

Flaherty .666

Rickard .712

Mancini .760

ERA Projections:

Tillman 5.06

Gausman 4.34

Bundy 4.66

Miley 4;56

Jimenez 4.99

Britton 2.94

O'Day 3.97

Brach 3.96

Givens 4.13

The offensive projections seem credible, though a bit pessimistic.    The pitching projections just seem outrageous.

 

And the Orioles have exceeded their February PECOTA win total projection with 16 games left to play.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, SteveA said:

And the Orioles have exceeded their February PECOTA win total projection with 16 games left to play.

But they weren't wrong about the pitching.   +103 looks about right.

[Can_of_corn]

Yep, hilarious.

They were just so far off this season.

Really embarrassed themselves with that prediction.

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep, hilarious.

They were just so far off this season.

Really embarrassed themselves with that prediction.

Being right once in six years isn't something to brag about. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Being right once in six years isn't something to brag about. 

But sending some comeuppance to folks that thought the reasonably accurate projection was "hilarious" is pretty amusing.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep, hilarious.

They were just so far off this season.

Really embarrassed themselves with that prediction.

Well, they weren't right.    And frankly, I think if the games had meant something, the O's probably could have eked out a few more wins in the last two weeks, though who knows.    Certainly a disappointing season, to say the least.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, they weren't right.    And frankly, I think if the games had meant something, the O's probably could have eked out a few more wins in the last two weeks, though who knows.    Certainly a disappointing season, to say the least.   

Final pythag isn't in yet but looks like they missed that by a game.

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, they weren't right.    And frankly, I think if the games had meant something, the O's probably could have eked out a few more wins in the last two weeks, though who knows.    Certainly a disappointing season, to say the least.   

I was going to go down this road but chose not to. 

Last 2 weeks were meaningless. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I was going to go down this road but chose not to. 

Last 2 weeks were meaningless. 

Not really, I mean from a team aspect sure but a lot of guys were playing for a job next season or an arbitration award.

And of course pride and things like that.

 

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not really, I mean from a team aspect sure but a lot of guys were playing for a job next season or an arbitration award.

And of course pride and things like that.

 

You think this team looked focused the last 2 weeks? 

That said not trying to split hairs too much here. They were not a good team.  

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

You think this team looked focused the last 2 weeks? 

That said not trying to split hairs too much here. They were not a good team.  

Nope.  I also thought they didn't look focused when they had that poor stretch earlier in the season.

Teams on a losing streak rarely look focused.

 

[eddie83]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Nope.  I also thought they didn't look focused when they had that poor stretch earlier in the season.

Teams on a losing streak rarely look focused.

 

No they don't.

 

That said once they were done they looked to be ready for it to be over. 

[Enjoy Terror]

On 2/7/2017 at 9:39 AM, Dark Helmet said:

So Tillman is projected to be the worst SP in the rotation? 

Hmm yeah. Maybe.

[Enjoy Terror]

On 2/7/2017 at 11:07 AM, Frobby said:

Manny's forecast is oddly pessimistic.    They have his 50% projection at .813 OPS, with only a 20% chance of reaching .867, which is about his average for the last two years.   They also project him at under 30 homers, even in their 90th percentile scenario.    Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Reading this thread in hindsight is a trip. Manny hit .783 this year, but did get 33HR.