More hilarious than ever: PECOTA projects the Orioles at 71-91

[Aristotelian]

26 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Is Ubaldo even on the team? I thought 2016 was his last year with the O's. 

Ubaldo is most definitely on the team. DD succeeded only in getting rid of Gallardo. Ubaldo will be making $13.5M in the 4th and final year of his contract.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Again, massively underrating the Orioles and massively overrating the Rays is not  a matter of doing well overall.  The two massive errors do not cancel each other out.  They missed on the Orioles by nearly twenty games and they missed on the Rays by more than twenty games.  They missed by forty games on those two teams, not zero.

I wasn't suggesting otherwise.   I agree they missed badly on those two.   What would be more interesting would be too see their average error on all 30 teams, compared to (1) other projection systems like fangraphs' and (2) the subjective picks of various "experts."    And in by no means suggesting PECOTA would do better, I'm just saying that's a better method for evaluating them than picking out the teams they missed badly on.    

Keep in mind, as I've said multiple times, that PECOTA is really designed to project individual players, not teams.    The team projections do have a human element, because it's the BP staff that guesstimates how the playing time will be allocated.    

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, weams said:

Homers and Buck and Bullpen Aces. 

It ain't homers.   They've got us hitting 261 of them.    It's mostly the pitching.    I don't know why our staff annually projects so poorly.    It's not like our staff has been good most of the time, but they're not at the abysmal level PECOTA thinks.   

[weams]

I meant that the team formula did not give enough weight to the power of homers. 

[DrungoHazewood]

It wouldn't be an offseason if there wasn't a long thread about how projections are stupid, especially PECOTA.

I'd be as or more more interested in how Marcels has the Orioles doing.  Fangraphs Depth Charts projection appears to have Orioles pitchers accounting for about 78 wins.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, weams said:

I meant that the team formula did not give enough weight to the power of homers. 

That's probably not it, given that the relationship between individual offensive events and runs is pretty darned well established.

[weams]

33 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That's probably not it, given that the relationship between individual offensive events and runs is pretty darned well established.

Does PECOTA use those relationships? Or is it weighted towards speed, defensive metrics and pitching strikeouts?

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, weams said:

Does PECOTA use those relationships? Or is it weighted towards speed, defensive metrics and pitching strikeouts?

I haven't subscribed to BP for a while, but I'd assume it still uses some kind of regression analysis to weight different production components as appropriately as it can.  If teams that have lots of speed, defense and pitching strikeouts disproportionately win those things would factor in more heavily.

[weams]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

I haven't subscribed to BP for a while, but I'd assume it still uses some kind of regression analysis to weight different production components as appropriately as it can.  If teams that have lots of speed, defense and pitching strikeouts disproportionately win those things would factor in more heavily.

I think the formula skews that way and an outlier drive and turn and burn team sneaks in. 

[weams]

Rotate.

http://www.theptmethod.com/hitting-mechanics/baseball/

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, weams said:

Does PECOTA use those relationships? Or is it weighted towards speed, defensive metrics and pitching strikeouts?

As best I understand it, PECOTA identifies the 10 most comparable players, looking at the last three seasons of data for the player in question, and then looks at the subsequent performance of those 10 players to project the future performance of the player.    For example, the most similar player to Chris Tillman as of 2016 is Gavin Floyd through 2012.    I don't know what criteria they use to determine who is most similar.   Floyd fell off a cliff in 2013, so that impacts the Tillman projection.    Interestingly, Tillman's top 10 comps include Wade Miley as of 2016 (#3 comp) and Ubaldo Jimenez as of 2013 (#8 comp).    

Tillman (2014-16): 552 IP, 1.296 WHIP, 3.99 ERA (104 ERA+), 3.2 BB/9, 6.7 K/9.

Floyd (2010-12): 549 IP, 1.295 WHIP, 4.25 ERA (101 ERA+), 2.7 BB/9, 7.3 K/9.   

[weams]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As best I understand it, PECOTA identifies the 10 most comparable players, looking at the last three seasons of data for the player in question, and then looks at the subsequent performance of those 10 players to project the future performance of the player.    For example, the most similar player to Chris Tillman as of 2016 is Gavin Floyd through 2012.    I don't know what criteria they use to determine who is most similar.   Floyd fell off a cliff in 2013, so that impacts the Tillman projection.    Interestingly, Tillman's top 10 comps include Wade Miley as of 2016 (#3 comp) and Ubaldo Jimenez as of 2013 (#8 comp).    

Tillman (2014-16): 552 IP, 1.296 WHIP, 3.99 ERA (104 ERA+), 3.2 BB/9, 6.7 K/9.

Floyd (2010-12): 549 IP, 1.295 WHIP, 4.25 ERA (101 ERA+), 2.7 BB/9, 7.3 K/9.   

Sounds like it's not a good way when predicting the Orioles. 

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As best I understand it, PECOTA identifies the 10 most comparable players, looking at the last three seasons of data for the player in question, and then looks at the subsequent performance of those 10 players to project the future performance of the player.    For example, the most similar player to Chris Tillman as of 2016 is Gavin Floyd through 2012.    I don't know what criteria they use to determine who is most similar.   Floyd fell off a cliff in 2013, so that impacts the Tillman projection.    Interestingly, Tillman's top 10 comps include Wade Miley as of 2016 (#3 comp) and Ubaldo Jimenez as of 2013 (#8 comp).    

Tillman (2014-16): 552 IP, 1.296 WHIP, 3.99 ERA (104 ERA+), 3.2 BB/9, 6.7 K/9.

Floyd (2010-12): 549 IP, 1.295 WHIP, 4.25 ERA (101 ERA+), 2.7 BB/9, 7.3 K/9.   

As if I needed more reasons to not want to extend him.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, weams said:

Sounds like it's not a good way when predicting the Orioles. 

But no reason I know why it should be worse for the Orioles than for other teams.  

[Number5]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But no reason I know why it should be worse for the Orioles than for other teams.  

Perhaps it lies in how they choose the "comps."  On Tillman's bb-ref page, Gavin Floyd's name is nowhere to be found under similarity scores.  Interestingly, Max Scherzer is listed as the 9th most similar pitcher thru age 28 in MLB history to Tillman.  Think PECOTA would have come up with different projections for Tillman had they used Scherzer instead of Floyd?