Manny projected to be worth $449 million over first ten free-agent seasons

[TINSTAAPP]

Quote

It will also be interesting to see how Harper's contract is impacted by an often-overlooked outside factor. Harper is not the only 24-year-old superstar who will reach free agency after the 2018 season. Orioles third baseman Manny Machado is just three months older than Harper and could motivate a $400 million deal of his own. Even with his relatively slow start, Machado projects to be a five-win player in 2017 and a six-win player annually going forward. Putting that figure into the system (6.1 bWAR to be exact), Machado projects to be worth $449 million over his first ten free-agent seasons. If there's a team out there willing to pay Machado what he's worth, it could reset the market for Harper. On the other hand, there may not be two teams willing to break the $400 million mark (or one willing to exceed $900 million for two players). If not, one of those players might have to settle for far less than his actual value. Coming into this season, it was still an open question as to which player would be the better buy come the fall of 2018, with things looking more favorable for Machado. However, if Harper can stay healthy and prove his 2015 wasn't a fluke, that question will have an easy answer.

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/230498288/how-much-is-bryce-harper-worth-in-free-agency

[ORIOLE33]

He is not worth it. I like Manny and want him to be an O, but he is no Bonds, Griffey jr, A-Rod or Trout.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, ORIOLE33 said:

He is not worth it. I like Manny and want him to be an O, but he is no Bonds, Griffey jr, A-Rod or Trout.

If it makes you feel better he won't get it.  If he's projected to be worth ~450 once you factor in the risk for the team and competition from the rest of a loaded class his figure will be well under 400M.  In a perfect storm free agent class I could see him breaking 400M.

[ORIOLE33]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

If it makes you feel better he won't get it.  If he's projected to be worth ~450 once you factor in the risk for the team and competition from the rest of a loaded class his figure will be well under 400M.  In a perfect storm free agent class I could see him breaking 400M.

I didn't mean to hurt you feelings. ???

[o'sfansince1970]

I love Manny but he's hitting .221 on the season. While he has hit some dingers, he's been a big disappointment so far. He may have warmed a little but there's no real blue sky on the horizon. If it's going to cost anywhere near that much the Os need to trade him and get 2-3 studs that are ready to break loose.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, ORIOLE33 said:

I didn't mean to hurt you feelings. ???

Huh?

I don't even have feelings. 

[ORIOLE33]

6 minutes ago, o'sfansince1970 said:

I love Manny but he's hitting .221 on the season. While he has hit some dingers, he's been a big disappointment so far. He may have warmed a little but there's no real blue sky on the horizon. If it's going to cost anywhere near that much the Os need to trade him and get 2-3 studs that are ready to break loose.

At one point I would have never have thought about trading Manny. But now, if things don't work out this year, I would.

[24fps]

I love paying full retail on a 10 year commitment for perishable commodities.  Doesn't everyone?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I love paying full retail on a 10 year commitment for perishable commodities.  Doesn't everyone?

I'll take full retail over the substantial markup you get on most big name free agent contracts.

 

[Sessh]

I don't think PA will allow Manny to be traded. It's right in line with how this organization thinks. This team peaked in 2014 and couldn't even win a single ALCS game. They are not good enough to win a championship and I'm not even convinced that is their goal. Being a strong regular season team is fine, but it means absolutely nothing if that team can't win when it matters in October. Building a championship team should be the goal and this team isn't. Britton should have been dealt and Manny should be shopped at the deadline, but I don't believe anyone in this FO has the guts to make the hard decisions for the future. This team can't win in October when it really matters which indicates something is missing somewhere.

I really doubt that people will look back from the coming dark ages on this five-year window this team had from 2012-2017 and really honestly say they are happy with what was accomplished. No championships, no WS appearances, no ALCS wins and exited every postseason appearance with a losing record, but hey we were really good in the regular season! This team should have done better during these years though this year isn't over yet, but it could have been better. It should have been better. Showalter is not capable of leading a team to the promised land, but in Baltimore it's fine so long as it's better than the 2000's and that's a pretty low bar to set. I want a team in Baltimore, top to bottom, capable of winning a championship and it's not here. So, you can either acknowledge it and maximize returns towards another chance in the future now or you can wait too long to do anything and screw yourself over for another 5+ years. I don't think the FO will do what's best for the organization in the long run and I don't think this window was taken advantage of the way it should have been.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sessh said:

I don't think PA will allow Manny to be traded. It's right in line with how this organization thinks. This team peaked in 2014 and couldn't even win a single ALCS game. They are not good enough to win a championship and I'm not even convinced that is their goal. Being a strong regular season team is fine, but it means absolutely nothing if that team can't win when it matters in October. Building a championship team should be the goal and this team isn't. Britton should have been dealt and Manny should be shopped at the deadline, but I don't believe anyone in this FO has the guts to make the hard decisions for the future. This team can't win in October when it really matters which indicates something is missing somewhere.

I really doubt that people will look back from the coming dark ages on this five-year window this team had from 2012-2017 and really honestly say they are happy with what was accomplished. No championships, no WS appearances, no ALCS wins and exited every postseason appearance with a losing record, but hey we were really good in the regular season! This team should have done better during these years though this year isn't over yet, but it could have been better. It should have been better. Showalter is not capable of leading a team to the promised land, but in Baltimore it's fine so long as it's better than the 2000's and that's a pretty low bar to set. I want a team in Baltimore, top to bottom, capable of winning a championship and it's not here. So, you can either acknowledge it and maximize returns towards another chance in the future now or you can wait too long to do anything and screw yourself over for another 5+ years. I don't think the FO will do what's best for the organization in the long run and I don't think this window was taken advantage of the way it should have been.

How is building a championship team different from building a playoff team?  You make the playoff and you roll the dice.  The 2014 team had pretty decent odds after they added Miller.

[ORIOLE33]

7 minutes ago, Sessh said:

I don't think PA will allow Manny to be traded. It's right in line with how this organization thinks. This team peaked in 2014 and couldn't even win a single ALCS game. They are not good enough to win a championship and I'm not even convinced that is their goal. Being a strong regular season team is fine, but it means absolutely nothing if that team can't win when it matters in October. Building a championship team should be the goal and this team isn't. Britton should have been dealt and Manny should be shopped at the deadline, but I don't believe anyone in this FO has the guts to make the hard decisions for the future. This team can't win in October when it really matters which indicates something is missing somewhere.

I really doubt that people will look back from the coming dark ages on this five-year window this team had from 2012-2017 and really honestly say they are happy with what was accomplished. No championships, no WS appearances, no ALCS wins and exited every postseason appearance with a losing record, but hey we were really good in the regular season! This team should have done better during these years though this year isn't over yet, but it could have been better. It should have been better. Showalter is not capable of leading a team to the promised land, but in Baltimore it's fine so long as it's better than the 2000's and that's a pretty low bar to set. I want a team in Baltimore, top to bottom, capable of winning a championship and it's not here. So, you can either acknowledge it and maximize returns towards another chance in the future now or you can wait too long to do anything and screw yourself over for another 5+ years. I don't think the FO will do what's best for the organization in the long run and I don't think this window was taken advantage of the way it should have been.

I applaud you for having the guts to speak the truth. I agree 100%.

[Sessh]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How is building a championship team different from building a playoff team?  You make the playoff and you roll the dice.  The 2014 team had pretty decent odds after they added Miller.

An organization wanting a championship will do whatever it takes. I don't think this organization is doing that. Paying CD what we did doesn't say that, paying Trumbo what they did for half a season doesn't say that, relying on rule five picks and getting lucky finding nuggets that no one else wants as opposed to building a strong farm system doesn't say that and sticking with a manager who has never, in over 20 years as manager, shown anything that would suggest he is capable of leading a team to a championship. It's not a recipe for championship success.

You're right about 2014, though. They had a real chance in 2014 and did nothing with it. I still remember how the team looked like they gave up after letting both home games slip away from them. Then, the Royals taunt them in the media and the Orioles didn't have the same intensity in KC. They should have done better that year for sure.

[InsideCoroner]

50 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I love paying full retail on a 10 year commitment for perishable commodities.  Doesn't everyone?

One without a warranty, no less. "$400 million, sold as is." 

[Spy Fox]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How is building a championship team different from building a playoff team?  You make the playoff and you roll the dice.  The 2014 team had pretty decent odds after they added Miller.

I'm not sure what Vegas said. But there's a pretty strong argument that we were the WS favorites at the beginning of that LCS round after Washington, Detroit, and both LA teams got knocked out.