Tim Kurkjian On Whether Orioles Should Trade Manny Machado

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Wouldn't it be smartest to trade Manny today, and re-sign him in 2019?

We get a haul now

We have a serious losing season in 2018, getting a top 5 draft pick

We combine the haul with Manny in 2019 and get ready for a new window of competiveness.

 

The thinking is that it's harder to sign a star player as a free agent after trading him away than to sign him when he's never played for another team.    Can you think of an example of a big star who was traded away in his prime and then re-signed with his old team while still in his prime?   I can't think of one.  

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The thinking is that it's harder to sign a star player as a free agent after trading him away than to sign him when he's never played for another team.    Can you think of an example of a big star who was traded away in his prime and then re-signed with his old team while still in his prime?   I can't think of one.  

Chapman

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Chapman

Yeah, I guess.    I was trying to think of a home-grown player.   Chapman was only on the Yankees for a blink of an eye, and certainly didn't give the Yankees any home team discount.    

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, I guess.    I was trying to think of a home-grown player.   Chapman was only on the Yankees for a blink of an eye, and certainly didn't give the Yankees any home team discount.    

Does anyone think Machado is going to give the O's a discount?

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Does anyone think Machado is going to give the O's a discount?

Depends when he signs.     Guys who sign before free agency usually give a discount, not necessarily out of loyalty, but to account for the risk of injury in the intervening period.     If he waits until the winter of 2018, then no.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Depends when he signs.     Guys who sign before free agency usually give a discount, not necessarily out of loyalty, but to account for the risk of injury in the intervening period.     If he waits until the winter of 2018, then no.

I don't consider that a discount.  To me a discount is accepting less than your value at that time.  A player's value is lower when they are still under team control.

[esmd]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

First of all, I've never neg repped any post, and if I ever did, it certainly wouldn't be this one.    Mostly, I was just joking.    Jeter was a great player, deserving Hall of Famer and earned his 10 year, $189 mm deal he received before the 2001 season.    But I'm not going to single him out as a "once in a lifetime player" in the way you did.     

It's hard for me to comment on your remark that it's foolish to give any one player the type of deal that Manny will command, until I see what kind of deal he commands.    If he gets 10/$300 mm, I won't think it's foolish at all. If he gets 10/$400 mm, then I will.  

I was just joking with you too, fwiw, no offense was taken or meant.  Imagine reading the first sentence of my last post as Donald Sutherland in Kelly's Heroes for context purposes. :-)

[esmd]

13 hours ago, backwardsk said:

People should go on record on what packages they'd want in return.

What's realistic?  What will a contender give up?  

 

How about Cody Bellinger, Yadier Alvarez, Brock Stewart, Imani Abdullah, and Mitchell Hanson from the Dodgers?

I'm a poor excuse for an armchair GM, I know, but I like the framework laid out of top two prospects, one more in top 10, two more in top 20.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Does anyone think Machado is going to give the O's a discount?

With the kind of money some are projecting Manny to get the O's probably can't afford him even with a discount.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

With the care of money some are projecting Manny to get the O's probably can't afford him even with a discount.

I've said it before, I would have pushed hard when he was recovering from his first knee surgery.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've said it before, I would have pushed hard when he was recovering from his first knee surgery.

We'll never know what offers have been made over the years, or what demands were made, and when.    

[Ruzious]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

I listened to that interview, and came away with the impression that while that's Olney's opinion, his opinion wasn't based on any inside information.     So I don't give his opinion much weight.  

Well, he's got a professional reputation earned over a lot of years.  When he says there's no chance, it's not some shmo on an O's message board saying it.  He said it as if "You have to be a fool to think there's a chance".

[George Zuverink]

32 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Wouldn't it be smartest to trade Manny today, and re-sign him in 2019?

We get a haul now

We have a serious losing season in 2018, getting a top 5 draft pick

We combine the haul with Manny in 2019 and get ready for a new window of competiveness.

 

Reminds me of a line from an old, corny song:

"How you gonna keep 'em down on the farm after they've sen Par-ee?

 

[spiritof66]

Of course you don't trade him at any time you're still in contention. The problem is determining when you're prepared to decide that you're out of contention and announce it to the world -- and your fans -- by trading Manny. 

A related, doom-and-gloom thought about the blow-it-up scenario (though, with this team, I'm not sure what the specifics of that would include). If the Orioles go into a rebuilding mode that looks toward a few years of, say, sub-75 win baseball, and if the MASN/Orioles/Nats arbitration ruling stays in place, this franchise will be in a difficult financial position from the loss of attendance (especially that portion of it that for which the Orioles compete with the Nats) and cable revenues, increasing significantly the difficulty of competing with the NYY's, RS and BJ's. We won't become the Rays (unless they move or build a new stadium), but we'll be much closer to them. Where will the money to develop an international program and to improve scouting and player development come from?

And if the Orioles begin that process by parting ways with Duquette and Showalter, who would want to come into that difficult environment as a general manager? I assume the woods are full of ex-players who would be eager to manage a big-league club, but the new manager almost certainly wouldn't be someone who has been successful elsewhere.

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, I guess.    I was trying to think of a home-grown player.   Chapman was only on the Yankees for a blink of an eye, and certainly didn't give the Yankees any home team discount.    

Right. Chapman presents a coincidence in which a team that traded for and then traded away a player with an expiring contract was the highest bidder -- and likely knew when it traded him away that it would be the highest bidder. I can't think of a situation that bears any resemblance to the Orioles trading Manny for a year or year-plus, his reaching free agency, and then returning to the Orioles as a FA.