OH Challenge: Retool and Compete in One Year

[Aristotelian]

Can it be done? 

Salary coming off the books - Ubaldo $13.5M, Hardy $12M ($14M - $2M buyout), Castillo ($6M) = $31.5M

Trade assets w/ current salary - Britton ($11.4M), Brach ($3M - will be due a big raise), Manny ($11.5M), Seth Smith ($7M), Kim ($3.5M), Trumbo ($11.5M), Jones ($17M) - potentially $65M off the books if all are traded

Needs: SS, 3B, OF, RP, SP, C

How do we fill all our needs while maintaining a level budget? 

[Uli2001]

I am afraid that with the state the rotation is in and no help coming from the minor leagues, this may be a multi-year rebuild.

[SteveA]

I don't think we can compete in 2018 as currently constituted unless the things we need to happen to compete this year happen (complete turnarounds by Gausman and Tillman).

I look at 2019:   If, and I know it's a big if, Sisco is a major league starting caliber catcher by then, and at least 2 of Hays/Mullins/Mountcastle are able to contribute in the starting lineup, then maybe you can do something like this:

   -- Re-sign an aging Adam Jones as a (99%) lifetime Oriole with the understanding he will play his remaining years in right field.

   -- Re-sign Brach

   -- Trade Manny and Britton and get a serious haul of prospects concentrating on starting pitchers, at least a couple of whom will be able to help us in 2019.

   -- If you can get something for any of the other free agents the next two seasons (Hardy, Kim, Flaherty, Smith, Ubaldo, Miley, Castillo, Tillman), of course you get it.   Some of those guys are untradeable, others may bring B or C prospects.   So I'm not counting on much here, but maybe you can get a depth piece who is under control.

   -- Davis is untradeable due to his contract.   Trumbo might be tradeable, if you get something decent for him, do it.  

OK, so what do you have in 2019:

C -- Cisco

1B -- Davis

2B -- Schoop

SS -- ??

3B -- maybe Mountcastle?

LF -- Mancini

CF -- Hays or Mullins

RF -- Jones

DH -- Trumbo/Mountcastle

SP -- Bundy, Gausman, ??, ??, ?? -- these ??'s HAVE to be filled by the products of the Britton & Machado deals, with maybe one mid level free agent signing like a Mike Leake or something.  

RP -- Brach, GIvens, O'Day, Scott, etc.   I feel pretty confident we can fill the back end spots, either from our system or pickups.   Maybe Castro and Bleier are pieces, or Long.   I'm not real concerned here.   We'll be OK.

So that's a nucleus.   It depends on doing a good job trading Machado and Britton for guys who can fill our shortstop and starting pitching holes by 2019.   And it depends on some of our good looking minor league hitters continue to hit and are major league ready in 2019.

[Three Run Homer]

If all you care about is contending next year. then you keep Machado until the bitter end and wind up with a comp pick after next season.  

Let Hardy go, but otherwise keep the starting lineup intact (or replace Smith and Castillo with comparably priced players).  Hope for better health for Davis and a bounceback from Trumbo.  

Trade Britton or Brach for whoever brings back the best mid-rotation starting pitcher, and hope that Mike Wright and Tanner Scott can contribute in the bullpen.

Use Ubaldo, Tillman and JJ's money (isn't Wiley also coming off the books?) to sign a couple of mid-rotation starters.  Hope that Gausman bounces back and that Bundy can pitch effectively for a full season.  

Not saying that's the best approach to rebuilding this team--I would sell more assets this season or offseason--but I do think it's possible to upgrade the rotation using some money from bad expiring contracts and selling one of our two proven closers.  

[bpilktree]

21 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Can it be done? 

Salary coming off the books - Ubaldo $13.5M, Hardy $12M ($14M - $2M buyout), Castillo ($6M) = $31.5M

Trade assets w/ current salary - Britton ($11.4M), Brach ($3M - will be due a big raise), Manny ($11.5M), Seth Smith ($7M), Kim ($3.5M), Trumbo ($11.5M), Jones ($17M) - potentially $65M off the books if all are traded

Needs: SS, 3B, OF, RP, SP, C

How do we fill all our needs while maintaining a level budget? 

You missed Tilman coming off books as well.  Miley as well unl SS they pick up option.  I don't think he stays here for that to be an option if he pitches well enough he will get moved at deadline if he pitches poorly the option is not picked up. 

[sportsfan8703]

I think it's going to be pretty simple in the offseason.  There isn't going to be some major rebuild. 

• We need 3 SP's.
• A SS/3B
• Starting OF
• Util 

The team will be Bundy, Gausman, ?, ?, ?

Britton, Brach, Givens, Oday, Bleier/Hart, Asher, ?

Castillo, Davis, Schoop, SS/3B?, Manny, Mancini, Jones, OF?, Trumbo 

Joseph, Rickard, Santander, Util?

 

I think we'll just chalk this up to having a terrible rotation and it just not being our year.  We'll use the money coming off the books to go after some mid tier SP's and a SS/3B.  

I'm hoping that a guy like Ynoa can earn a rotation spot for next year.  Our bullpen will be dominant again if healthy.  We will just have to replace Hardy and Smith in the lineup.  Hopefully we can upgrade.  Santander will be on the OD roster as he will have some days left to complete his Rule 5 criteria.  Prospects like Scott, Long, Sisco, Mullins and Hays could impact the team early next year.  

 

[Tryptamine]

These are always fun. Let's give it a go. To do it in one year I'm going to have to hope for some best case scenarios though.

Buyout Hardy +2M

Britton is dealt to WSH for Fedde and Kieboom

Pickup Miley's 2018 option @ 12M

Sign Zack Cozart 3/48 or 4/64 (Gives Kieboom time to get ready) +16M

Trade Trumbo to LAA along with 10M for Grayson Long -7M

Machado and Brach to STL for Jack Flaherty(#2 upside, less than a year away),Luke Weaver(#3 type and MLB ready),Carson Kelly(Best catching prospect in the game and MLB ready), and Magneuris Sierra(Superior athlete whose tools  can carry him until he learns to hit for more pop)

Sign Mike Moustakas 6/120 +20M

Total salary added per year 31M, Salary coming off books 31.5M

 

C:C.Kelly(MLB and best catching prospect in the game)

1B:C.Davis

2B:Schoop

3B:M.Moustakas

SS:Cozart

RF:Jones

CF:Sierra

LF: Kim/(Mullins/Hays)

DH:Mancini

SP: Bundy,Gausman,Miley,Fedde,Weaver(Flaherty/Grayson both ready mid to late 2018 and replace Miley in 2019)

RP:Not super concerned with this, bullpens are pretty easy to rebuild on the fly

 

[Aristotelian]

^I think Moustakas for 6 years would be as bad as the Davis deal. I don't trust him to perform in Baltimore with a guaranteed contract. His game reminds me of pre-contract Panda.

Aren't the Cardinals out of it? I don't see them giving up the farm, even for Manny.

[TINSTAAPP]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Can it be done? 

Yes but they need to fire Dan Duquette and hire a competent GM to replace him like the Red Sox did. 

[Cumberbundy]

Houston badly wants a LH RP, they are loaded with prospects. If Britton can get us Martes, then that's simple, if not perhaps Paulino + and either is ready in 2018.

Sign Estrada & Cobb. 

Bundy, Gausman, Estrada, Cobb, Martes. That's one fine rotation. We can't lose anything at SS, I'd rather sign Espinosa than give big money to any of the FAs with a pick attached.

The Nats need relief help and lost Eaton, I think they're a great fit for Jones now and next year he replaces Werth as they negotiate with Harper and see how Robles developes. I'd take Taylor from the Nats and a prospect and make Taylor my CF of the future. I don't think we could get Robles with Jones/Brach but we may be able to add Brach + O'Day and get Fedde + difo. Jones/Brach/O'Day for Taylor, Fedde, Difo. 

If nothing is good on the SS market I'm moving CD to 3rd and Manny to SS. 

 

[ThomasTomasz]

You want the biggest haul of prospects?  Do the deal with the devil that Angelos probably wouldn't allow them to make, and offer Machado, Britton and Brach to the Nationals.  Talks start with Trea Turner, Victor Robles and Erick Fedde, and include many more.  

Nationals have a window to win now with Bryce Harper, working under the same thing we are with Manny.  They need a back end of the bullpen in the worst way, Britton and Brach now shut down the 8th and 9th inning for them.  Even if they don't want Manny and take Turner off the table (though I would push strongly that having Manny in that lineup for 1.5 years would be worth it for them to give up Turner) they would most certainly give up Robles and others if that meant locking down their bullpen with those two guys.  Just imagine trying to pitch through Murphy, Machado, Harper, Zimmerman and Rendon in the playoffs.  Not to mention they have the aces we never did.  

But, I doubt Angelos allows Duquette to even make contact with the Nationals, which is a shame, because right now we are a trade match made in heaven. 

[Cumberbundy]

You think they'd deal Robles and Fedde for Britton and Brach? I doubt they'd deal Turner, but that would be an interesting move. I think Jones is a perfect fit in that OF, particularly if we landed Robles, they'd have Jones/Harper/Werth this year and flip Eaton for Werth next year. Obviously Jones would offer much more than Taylor heading into the playoffs, we may get him a ring and we can get ourselves young talent. The pieces they could most use are the only things we have. Brittons return could do a lot for our future. 

[DirtyBird]

Could we unload Trumbo or Davis to the Yankees?

 

[thezeroes]

6 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Yes but they need to fire Dan Duquette and hire a competent GM to replace him like the Red Sox did. 

See Detroit Tigers 2014.

Compare to Detroit Tigers 2015.

It was not and is not a good thing to just change GM's when they have had poor track records such as Dombrowski.

[Tx Oriole]

6 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Yes but they need to fire Dan Duquette and hire a competent GM to replace him like the Red Sox did. 

Isn't his and Bucks contracts up next year?