The problem with DD's "underperforming" logic

[Aristotelian]

15 minutes ago, LC_O's_87 said:

Hardy -- declining player who is continuing to revert to poorer form

Trumbo - was 2016 overperforming and 2017 more akin to expected for him?

Davis - his 2016 is almost identical to his 2017.  sure it's off the pace of his 2 best seasons and not as bad as his worst (2013), but I'd say he's about baseline.

Kim -- no track record.  hard to know what his baseline is.

Tillman - I don't care what anyone says, he is damaged goods at this point.  He's hurt and has been since about August last year.

I will agree that Jimenez and Miley cannot do any worse at this point.  One would expect some better outings from them for the simple fact it's hard to keep doing so poorly.  

I don't remember the time you posted before April a prediction that Chris Tillman would have an ERA over 7. I agree the others are each somewhat predictable but I think it is fair to say that when you add them all up they are underperforming reasonable expectations, significantly.

[LC_O's_87]

20 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't remember the time you posted before April a prediction that Chris Tillman would have an ERA over 7. I agree the others are each somewhat predictable but I think it is fair to say that when you add them all up they are underperforming reasonable expectations, significantly.

Fair point. But with respect to Tillman, while I certainly did not expect him to perform as he has, its obvious he's hurt.

It's probably unreasonable to expect him to return to an upper 3's ERA pitcher in the second half of the season.

I was using "underperforming" in the sense of whether we can expect a big correction in performance for the rest of this season, not in the sense of whether the player's performance to date was above or below reasonable expectations before the season started.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

Yup, and it's exactly what they did in 1999 with Mussina -- even though we were 11 games UNDER 500 at the deadline, we still refused to sell Mussina!  And people wonder why there is so much animosity toward PA.  When you push for pointless, boneheaded moves like keeping an expiring asset on a team that's going nowhere, only the most deluded baseball fan would call that good ownership. I don't believe it is a coincidence that we continued losing for 12 more years after we got diddley squat for Mussina.  

Mussina had a no-trade clause in his contract.   http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/sports/mussina-not-set-fly-coop-article-1.892196

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mussina had a no-trade clause in his contract.   http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/sports/mussina-not-set-fly-coop-article-1.892196

I vividly remember that. 

I thought he said something along the lines of he would not have felt apart of a team since he wasn't there all year. 

[FanSince88]

20 hours ago, Frobby said:

Mussina had a no-trade clause in his contract.   http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/sports/mussina-not-set-fly-coop-article-1.892196

There must have been some sort of arrangement that could have been made to convince him to waive it.  It was only a few months, and then he was  FA anyway.  And I did make a mistake -- his contract expired in 2000, not 1999.  Still, I can't believe the team didn't try to work out a deal for him to waive the no-trade clause.  

[Ohfan67]

12 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

There must have been some sort of arrangement that could have been made to convince him to waive it.  It was only a few months, and then he was  FA anyway.  And I did make a mistake -- his contract expired in 2000, not 1999.  Still, I can't believe the team didn't try to work out a deal for him to waive the no-trade clause.  

He was very angry at the front office and this was his way to say screw you. 

[Tx Oriole]

5 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

He was very angry at the front office and this was his way to say screw you. 

I  can't remember who was the GM then or who the manager was.  Oh well.