Is There A Path to 88 Wins for the O's?

[mdbdotcom]

An AL team will need 88 wins or so to earn a wildcard slot. Coming out of the All Star break, the O's will need to go 46-28 to finish with 88 games.

How likely are the Orioles to go 46-28 the rest of the way? Are they good enough to even come close? 

[TradeAngelos]

How likely? Less than 5%. So not very would be an understatement.

Are they good enough? If every single thing goes right, and they stay healthy....yes. Hence the 5% or less. 

 

[FanSince88]

Extremely unlikely.  22-10 to open the season was great, it wasn't sustainable.  Baseball history is littered with the corpses of teams who has a hot April only to be completely irrelevant by August.  

[OFFNY]

o

 

If the Orioles win 88 games this season, then this thread will wind up being the biggest smash hit since April 6th of 2012, when brianod predicted that the Orioles ........ coming off of 14 consecutive losing seasons between 1998 and 2011 ........ would win the American League East.

 

 

 

 

o

[TradeAngelos]

2 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

Extremely unlikely.  22-10 to open the season was great, it wasn't sustainable.  Baseball history is littered with the corpses of teams who has a hot April only to be completely irrelevant by August.  

Do you think it is littered with any teams who started off slow and then got hot near the end? Or had a hot streak, fell off, but then went on another hot streak? Or started off hot hot hot and then just held on but still made it because they had such a big lead? 

[FanSince88]

Just now, TradeAngelos said:

Do you think it is littered with any teams who started off slow and then got hot near the end? Or had a hot streak, fell off, but then went on another hot streak? Or started off hot hot hot and then just held on but still made it because they had such a big lead? 

I agree those things can happen.  But not on a team with one league average SP, and the rest below average or negative WAR.  There's no way out of this, it's checkmate.  We're shuffling furniture on the Titanic from here on out.  Even if Gausman pitches way better the second half, it's probably offset by Bundy regression (if they push his arm to the end of the season I'll be shocked if Dylan has a sub-5 ERA).  Who else, then?  Nobody else, that's who.  

[wildcard]

Yes, We can talk about how unlikely it is.   But he O's are 4 games out of the wild card with 11 weeks to go.   They have Davis and Britton coming back for the 2nd half.  I don't  see the O's giving up until they are further out or time runs out.  

The next three weeks before the deadline will be interesting.

[NashLumber]

Current winning % is .477

.622 winning % needed the rest of the way. 

 

8 ball says ...

 

No

[Spy Fox]

Mostly the same players went 22-10 to start this year and 47-30 to start last year, so I won't say it's impossible. But the team should be selling unless there is a major win streak right away after the break. 

[TradeAngelos]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Mostly the same players went 22-10 to start this year and 47-30 to start last year, so I won't say it's impossible. But the team should be selling unless there is a major win streak right away after the break. 

I was just thinking that a long winning streak would be almost mandatory. 8-10 win streak is probably only way. The offense would probably have to shatter every record for a 10 game span known to man for that to happen. 

[El Gordo]

I don't think the premise is correct. TB is currently the second WC they are on pace for 84-85 W

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

An AL team will need 88 wins or so to earn a wildcard slot. Coming out of the All Star break, the O's will need to go 46-28 to finish with 88 games.

How likely are the Orioles to go 46-28 the rest of the way? Are they good enough to even come close? 

I don't think so.

[Tx Oriole]

34 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

If Im Roger McDowell, Im looking for someone to sublease my apartment.

If he is fired would that help? If he is fired I believe it'll be the end of the season. 

[Norfolk orioles]

Gausman has the worst whip in all of baseball for qualified starters.

 

Wade Miley has the second worst whip in all of baseball for qualified starters.

 

If Tillman had enough innings, he'd blow the doors off both of them for worst rotation starter in baseball with a WHIP over 2.

 

Did I mention Ubaldo is our other starter?

 

There is a zero point zero chance this team can string enough quality starts together to become a wild card team. 

I don't even think .500 is realistic with pitching like this.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Norfolk orioles said:

Gausman has the worst whip in all of baseball for qualified starters.

 

Wade Miley has the second worst whip in all of baseball for qualified starters.

 

If Tillman had enough innings, he'd blow the doors off both of them for worst rotation starter in baseball with a WHIP over 2.

 

Did I mention Ubaldo is our other starter?

 

There is a zero point zero chance this team can string enough quality starts together to become a wild card team. 

I don't even think .500 is realistic with pitching like this.

 

Yikes.

It would take a massive overhaul for them to get it together.  I dunno, I don't see it happening.