Anyone else open to the idea of extending Manny?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

We are talking about the guy that is 18th out of 23 qualifying ML third basemen in OPS?

I am so tired of the Manny HOF, generational talent talk when it just isn't yet been backed up with numbers. You guys need to watch more MLB games and marvel at Nolan Arenado or Jose Ramirez, or Anthony Rendon, or Kris Bryant, or Miguel Sano or the other 12 third baseman that have been better hitters this year.

Doesn't a generational talent at least have to be in the top 10 of the present class of third basemen???

First of all, your analysis always seems to ignore Manny's glove.   You simply can't do that.     

Secondly, your analysis always focuses exclusively on 2017.    That's shortsighted.    He's having a down year, but has still been pretty good this season, and he's no. 4 in total fWAR among 3B since 2012, despite playing only 1/3 of a season that year and half a season in 2014.    Of the three guys above him, two are future Hall of Famers (Beltre and Cabrera, who appears as a 3B on this list though he moved off the position several years ago).    The other guy is Josh Donaldson, who didn't reach the majors until age 25 but has been a great player since then.  

Manny is not a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame at this stage of his career, but there are very few players who have put up his WAR stats before their age 25 season.    He's got a huge head start on a HOF career, to be sure.     

[Bahama O's Fan]

7 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Us, Miami, Atlanta, maybe Philly if they magically don't suck the next two years

Is this considering him for SS as well?

[foxfield]

22 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

We are talking about the guy that is 18th out of 23 qualifying ML third basemen in OPS?

I am so tired of the Manny HOF, generational talent talk when it just isn't yet been backed up with numbers. You guys need to watch more MLB games and marvel at Nolan Arenado or Jose Ramirez, or Anthony Rendon, or Kris Bryant, or Miguel Sano or the other 12 third baseman that have been better hitters this year.

Doesn't a generational talent at least have to be in the top 10 of the present class of third basemen???

Rick, you are a classic forest for the trees person. If you truly believe Manny Machado is the 18th best player, I mean 3b in baseball....then there is nothing that I can say. Thankfully as poorly as the Orioles have been run at times in the last 20 years, there is no one as obtuse and narrow minded at the helm. Thanks for showing it could actually still be worse. 

[Babypowder]

On 7/25/2017 at 2:00 PM, webbrick2010 said:

.239/.309/.432/.741

Career wRC+

Machado 115

Arenado 112

Ramirez 111

Rendon 120

Bryant 142

Sano 127

Coors makes Arenado look like a better hitter, but he isn't one. Manny's been a better hitter than both he and Ramirez. He's comparable offensively to Rendon but is younger. Bryant and Sano are definitively better hitters, but Manny is younger than Bryant and a far better defender than both, Sano especially.

One season does not a career make. You also have to consider that his batted ball data suggests an xwOBA of .360, while his actual wOBA is .316. He's had an incredibly unlucky year, and down years happen. I'm confident that's all this has been.

[Three Run Homer]

I voted that we should extend him, but really the right answer is that we should make a serious, market-realistic offer now or in the offseason, and then trade him if he says no.  I think he is worth building a franchise around, but if he's not willing to sign a genuine offer then I'm willing to give up on contending in 2018 in order to jump start the team's rebuilding.   We would definitely get much more back for him in a trade then the value of a comp pick.  

What's a realistic offer?  How about 10 years, $300 million?  

[ORIOLE33]

On 7/25/2017 at 3:15 PM, Frobby said:

First of all, your analysis always seems to ignore Manny's glove.   You simply can't do that.

Manny is not a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame at this stage of his career, but there are very few players who have put up his WAR stats before their age 25 season.    He's got a huge head start on a HOF career, to be sure.     

1st, yes, Manny can play some great defense. But you don't payout a max contract for good defense.

2nd, Manny is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame? Tell me why. Just so you know, his career batting avg is in the 270's and he's never had a 100 RBI season.

I know he has a lot of baseball left in him, but right now, Manny's in the Hall of Very Good.

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, ORIOLE33 said:

1st, yes, Manny can play some great defense. But you don't payout a max contract for good defense.

2nd, Manny is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame? Tell me why. Just so you know, his career batting avg is in the 270's and he's never had a 100 RBI season.

I know he has a lot of baseball left in him, but right now, Manny's in the Hall of Very Good.

Did you miss the word "not" in my sentence "Manny is not a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame?"    I don't think I could have been much clearer.    

As to what teams will pay for Manny's defense, I guess we'll find out.   He's a very good hitter (despite struggles this year) while at the same time an elite defender.    That's a rare combination.   Seems to me the Orioles have a 3B who got into the Hall of Fame without being a truly elite hitter.   

[ORIOLE33]

My bad. I definitely missed "not" in there.

As for Brooks. Being on those great Oriole teams certainly helped his Hall of Fame chances. 

You might know this more than me, but was the game as offensive back in those days as it is now?

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, ORIOLE33 said:

My bad. I definitely missed "not" in there.

As for Brooks. Being on those great Oriole teams certainly helped his Hall of Fame chances. 

You might know this more than me, but was the game as offensive back in those days as it is now?

No, it wasn't.    But aside from a couple of career seasons, I don't think Brooks was the hitter that Manny is likely to be over his career.    For his career, Brooks was a 104 OPS+, while Manny is at 116 and probably hasn't had his best years.

By the same token, Manny isn't quite the fielder that Brooks was, IMO.   But the overall combination is similar.

[Chavez Ravine]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Did you miss the word "not" in my sentence "Manny is not a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame?"    I don't think I could have been much clearer.    

As to what teams will pay for Manny's defense, I guess we'll find out.   He's a very good hitter (despite struggles this year) while at the same time an elite defender.    That's a rare combination.   Seems to me the Orioles have a 3B who got into the Hall of Fame without being a truly elite hitter.   

If we take Jason Heyward's 8/184K plus two opt outs as the benchmark for a defense only big contract, you don't have to imagine Manny being anywhere near ARod offensively before you start getting into "big"  numbers.

[El Gordo]

21 hours ago, ORIOLE33 said:

1st, yes, Manny can play some great defense. But you don't payout a max contract for good defense.

2nd, Manny is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame? Tell me why. Just so you know, his career batting avg is in the 270's and he's never had a 100 RBI season.

I know he has a lot of baseball left in him, but right now, Manny's in the Hall of Very Good.

BA ? RBI? Where have you been? Brooks, a HOF 3B was worth 16.9 fWAR by age 25. Manny so far 25.2 fWAR. I'd say he has a head start.

[El Gordo]

20 hours ago, ORIOLE33 said:

My bad. I definitely missed "not" in there.

As for Brooks. Being on those great Oriole teams certainly helped his Hall of Fame chances. 

You might know this more than me, but was the game as offensive back in those days as it is now?

Brooks made the HOF because of his 16 GG. He was my favorite player but Manny's glove is at least as good and his bat is better.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

BA ? RBI? Where have you been? Brooks, a HOF 3B was worth 16.9 fWAR by age 25. Manny so far 25.2 fWAR. I'd say he has a head start.

At least, with that segment of BBWAA members who pay attention to things like WAR.

[El Gordo]

Just now, Frobby said:

At least, with that segment of BBWAA members who pay attention to things like WAR.

I am confident that Manny will make the HOF if he stays healthy for the next 10 ryears. He may or not be Brooks but he is certainly Beltre. Sorry Cal.

[Frobby]

Just now, El Gordo said:

Brooks made the HOF because of his 16 GG. He was my favorite player but Manny's glove is at least as good and his bat is better.

I don't know about Manny's glove being as good.    The year he won the platinum glove he was the best I've ever seen, but I don't think he's quite as rangy now that he's gotten a little bigger.    Don't get me wrong, he's still great and I'm sure he'll win many more Gold Gloves, but I'd still give Brooks the edge.