Rule 5 Strategies

[NCRaven]

Traditionally, teams often risk leaving injured minor leaguers off their 40 man roster since teams have been reluctant to use the Rule 5 Draft to select injured players.  It's generally been used for pitchers that could be stashed in the bullpen or hitters that fill the last man on the bench role.  

With the selection of Anthony Santander, a player that the Orioles knew had a high ceiling, but was coming off an injury, have the Orioles identified a new market inefficiency - teams undervaluing high ceiling prospects with injury concerns - that they, and presumably other teams, will take advantage of in the future.  The were able to draft a potential impact bat, place him on the DL for most of the season, and now only have to keep him on the 25 man roster for 90 total days before they can option him next year.  If he had been healthy, he'd have had to remain on the 25 man roster for the entire 2017 season.  Now, if he can get in 45 days this year, we could potentially option him in late May next season.  And, his bat projects to be far better than Flaherty's or Rickard's, possibly even better than Jay Gibbons - but probably not Bautista's!

[ReclaimTheCrown]

Good post, and Santander's is very interesting (albeit probably somewhat unique) case.  I was surprised to learn that it only had to be 90 total days that could be spread over multiple seasons; before, I had thought if he didn't reach the 90 days in 2017, he would have to do a full 90 in 2018 (that they couldn't be essentially combined).  I bet MLB is looking at changing that rule, because you can see how a team could take advantage of it (I'm quite positive, though we'd obviously never admit it, that we had something like this in mind the whole time).  If I'm Cleveland, I'm pretty sore about this whole thing, but doesn't look like there's much they could do...

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, ReclaimTheCrown said:

Good post, and Santander's is very interesting (albeit probably somewhat unique) case.  I was surprised to learn that it only had to be 90 total days that could be spread over multiple seasons; before, I had thought if he didn't reach the 90 days in 2017, he would have to do a full 90 in 2018 (that they couldn't be essentially combined).  I bet MLB is looking at changing that rule, because you can see how a team could take advantage of it (I'm quite positive, though we'd obviously never admit it, that we had something like this in mind the whole time).  If I'm Cleveland, I'm pretty sore about this whole thing, but doesn't look like there's much they could do...

They could have put him on their 40.

[Beef Supreme]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They could have put him on their 40.

Exactly? What does Cleveland have to be sore about? They knew the risk and took it. Maybe they hoped Santander would be returned to them. But they had to have foreseen that he would be spending some part of the beginning of the season on the DL following surgery. 

Some here believe that what Baltimore did was unethical and that the rest of the league frowns upon their acquisition of the injured Santander. I disagree on both counts.

[Beef Supreme]

btw: "Exactly."
(No question mark should appear after that word.)

[NCRaven]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They could have put him on their 40.

Exactly!  And they bet that no team would draft him.  I don't think the Orioles gamed the system.  Santander had a legitimate injury that required time to heal.  Every team knew that he had been injured.  So, my question is, if there is a similar player next year, will a team take a chance?

Example.  Hunter Harvey was considered a high ceiling pitching prospect before he needed TJ surgery.  But, he was also expected to be back some time this season.  What if a team drafted him, or a similar pitcher in the Rule 5 (assuming that he was eligible for the Rule 5, he probably wasn't!), put him on the DL, activated him for a rehab assignment at the same time that the Orioles did with Harvey, or maybe a little later, then activated him in September and stashed him on the bench?

He'd have to stay on the 25 man for April and May next year and then he could be optioned.  A team that wasn't expected to contend and needed to bolster their player development might be more willing to take that risk after seeing what the O's did with Santander.

[LookitsPuck]

My main issue with the Rule V and the Orioles is value...

• Ryan Flaherty - 1.8 WAR over 6 seasons
• TJ McFarland - 0.0 WAR over 4 seasons
• Michael Almanzar - never played for the Orioles
• Jason Garcia - -0.1 WAR over 1/2 season
• Joey Rickard - 0.6 WAR over 1 1/2 seasons
• Anthony Santander - TBD

So we're talking about an accrual of 2.3 WAR. Was it really worth the issue of locking down a roster spot? Yes, the cost is minimal, but maybe the club is better off using the FA market for lower cost utility players that give you some roster flexibility instead of Rule V picks?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

My main issue with the Rule V and the Orioles is value...

• Ryan Flaherty - 1.8 WAR over 6 seasons
• TJ McFarland - 0.0 WAR over 4 seasons
• Michael Almanzar - never played for the Orioles
• Jason Garcia - -0.1 WAR over 1/2 season
• Joey Rickard - 0.6 WAR over 1 1/2 seasons
• Anthony Santander - TBD

So we're talking about an accrual of 2.3 WAR. Was it really worth the issue of locking down a roster spot? Yes, the cost is minimal, but maybe the club is better off using the FA market for lower cost utility players that give you some roster flexibility instead of Rule V picks?

That's pretty much the argument I have been using all along. 

[Lucky_13]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

That's pretty much the argument I have been using all along. 

I think that's why the original post is advocating picking up higher ceiling injured guys who are actual prospects. It would be a cheap way to get an impact prospect and the Orioles simply have to rehab him and keep him on the roster for just 90 days. 

It's riskier but the payoff is better. 

[maybenxtyr]

I'm not against the process, but I don't like the way they hold on to the players.

There is no reason for Flash to still be on the team. Same could have been said for TJ. 

You pick up a guy and try it out and be willing to cut bait when they inevitably fail.

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

My main issue with the Rule V and the Orioles is value...

• Ryan Flaherty - 1.8 WAR over 6 seasons
• TJ McFarland - 0.0 WAR over 4 seasons
• Michael Almanzar - never played for the Orioles
• Jason Garcia - -0.1 WAR over 1/2 season
• Joey Rickard - 0.6 WAR over 1 1/2 seasons
• Anthony Santander - TBD

So we're talking about an accrual of 2.3 WAR. Was it really worth the issue of locking down a roster spot? Yes, the cost is minimal, but maybe the club is better off using the FA market for lower cost utility players that give you some roster flexibility instead of Rule V picks?

I have not problem with Rule 5 guys being on the roster until the O's have someone better to replace them.  The O's have yet to come up with a better UIF than Flaherty.   TJ served a purpose while he was on the roster. He was optioned and replaced from time to time.  When he was out of options he was let go.  Rickard will find there is a lot of competition for roster spots next year with Hays, Mullins and Santander.   He could find himself being optioned.   Santander defense will be important.  If he turns out to be a DH the O's may option him to AAA in May next year.  Trading Trumbo may be to the key to Santander getting a lot of playing time.   But if Santander can play the outfield it will probably be easier to find him PT.

[panick]

18 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I'm not against the process, but I don't like the way they hold on to the players.

There is no reason for Flash to still be on the team. Same could have been said for TJ. 

You pick up a guy and try it out and be willing to cut bait when they inevitably fail.

It seems as if Showalter falls in love with these guys, even after they have proven they have no business on the O's.

As to not picking Rule 5 players, hasn't that been one of Duquette's big off-season moves each year?

[sportsfan8703]

28 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

My main issue with the Rule V and the Orioles is value...

• Ryan Flaherty - 1.8 WAR over 6 seasons
• TJ McFarland - 0.0 WAR over 4 seasons
• Michael Almanzar - never played for the Orioles
• Jason Garcia - -0.1 WAR over 1/2 season
• Joey Rickard - 0.6 WAR over 1 1/2 seasons
• Anthony Santander - TBD

So we're talking about an accrual of 2.3 WAR. Was it really worth the issue of locking down a roster spot? Yes, the cost is minimal, but maybe the club is better off using the FA market for lower cost utility players that give you some roster flexibility instead of Rule V picks?

In the years Macfarland was with us who was capable off posting a 0.0 WAR?  Check out the WAR's on the Norfolk shuttle this year and this is supposed to be the year where we have deep depth. 

If not for Schoop, Flaherty maybe have been our 2nd basemen. His dWAR at SS really skews his numbers. Look what he WAR he put up when he played 3rd for us. 

Garcia wasn't really an impact because he got hurt after the first month or so. But still gave us decent production. 

Almanzar was a miss. He didn't impact us and was reacquired in a trade. De Aza I believe?

Rickard looks like he's going to be a cheap 1 WAR player over the next 4 years. 

Santander is arguably in our top 5 prospects. 

People bash the farm, well these have all been lotto tickets. I'd say Flaherty, Mac, Rickard, and Santander count as wins. 

[interloper]

This is one of those circumstances where I don't think WAR is the best tool to evaluate. Garcia was egregious, I agree there. I think everyone knew right away he was going to flop.

I don't mind the trio of Flaherty/MacFarland/Rickard because they've all done some good things for a year or two here and there. 

We gave MacFarland too many  chances after he started sucking, but he was great that one year. Flaherty I think has come to the end of the line, or will soon, but 1.8 sounds about right for a utility bench guy. 

Santander is about to blow the lid off this whole thing, though. He's legit. In my opinion. 

[sportsfan8703]

You guys are acting like 0.0 WAR is some easy thing to find. Wish we had 3 0.0 WAR starters instead of Miley, Ubaldo and Tillman. 

Instead of drafting Flaherty and Rickard we could have went with vets like Janish and Gentry. What's there WAR this year?  A combined -1.5.