What Trades Will the Orioles Make?

[foxfield]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So if next spring Caleb and Chance are the two catchers on the roster Buck will play Caleb every day?  Will he play Flaherty at catcher?

I'm at a loss how Buck can avoid playing Sisco.

Buck petitions MLB to change Sisco's name to Kim!

[Luke-OH]

Let's break down what Verlander is worth.

He's projected to finish this season with 3.5 WAR, to achieve that he'll have to pitch better than he has on average so far this season.  So for sake of simplicity, let's say he'll be about that good the next two seasons (although that is probably a generous projection for his age 35 and age 36 seasons).

So .7 WAR for the rest of this season, 3.5 next year and 3.5 in 2019.  So 7.7 WAR in total, at 8m/WAR which seems to be the agreed upon rate in the open market (it varies obviously, but this is a good average) you get 61.6 million in value. He's owed about 5 million for the rest of this season, so 61 million in cost over the rest of this year, and the following two years.  So .6m in surplus value, compare that to the average surplus value of a #80-100 hitter prospect of a bit over 20m (Sisco's value).

There is some value if the O's make the playoffs and get past the wildcard game, but at the same time, I don't feel comfortable projecting no decline for a 35-36 year old.

So for Verlander to get Sisco, Detroit should throw in something around the range of 20 million.

[Rojo13]

45 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Verlander and Mike Leake should never be mentioned in the same sentence.

I was the president of the Sisco fan club, but with the emergence of Mancini, Hays, Mullins, Stewart and Santander, I just don't see a spot for him on this team. He will never catch while buck is managing. Where is he gonna play?  The tigers could give him a chance at catcher and he is the "top prospect" they seem to be looking for. 

 

Wait. Are you saying the Tigers would trade Verlander for Cisco? You've got to be crazy. People thought an injured Britton should get 3 top 100 prospects and you think Verlander can be had for a guy like Cisco?

[sportsfan8703]

Nope I said we should offer them Sisco, Akin and Phellufo/Stewart/Rafaela. 

[Rojo13]

44 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I just have a feeling DD will  not make any trades. Would be fine with Miggy though.

I kind of I hope we stay pat from a moral standpoint. It always bothers that everyone here wants to trade away 1/8th of the team at the end of the season - particularly this year when we are hot. It just seems almost morally wrong. I know it's professional baseball but can you imagine if your employer just axed 3 of your favorite buddies 3 weeks before xmas? It would anger me.

[sportsfan8703]

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So if next spring Caleb and Chance are the two catchers on the roster Buck will play Caleb every day?  Will he play Flaherty at catcher?

I'm at a loss how Buck can avoid playing Sisco.

Two words... Francisco Pena. 

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, Rojo13 said:

Wait. Are you saying the Tigers would trade Verlander for Cisco? You've got to be crazy. People thought an injured Britton should get 3 top 100 prospects and you think Verlander can be had for a guy like Cisco?

He cleared revocable waivers, contracts matter!!!!  He wouldn't be available if any team was willing to take on his contract for free.

[sportsfan8703]

10 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Let's break down what Verlander is worth.

He's projected to finish this season with 3.5 WAR, to achieve that he'll have to pitch better than he has on average so far this season.  So for sake of simplicity, let's say he'll be about that good the next two seasons (although that is probably a generous projection for his age 35 and age 36 seasons).

So .7 WAR for the rest of this season, 3.5 next year and 3.5 in 2019.  So 7.7 WAR in total, at 8m/WAR which seems to be the agreed upon rate in the open market (it varies obviously, but this is a good average) you get 61.6 million in value. He's owed about 5 million for the rest of this season, so 61 million in cost over the rest of this year, and the following two years.  So .6m in surplus value, compare that to the average surplus value of a #80-100 hitter prospect of a bit over 20m (Sisco's value).

There is some value if the O's make the playoffs and get past the wildcard game, but at the same time, I don't feel comfortable projecting no decline for a 35-36 year old.

So for Verlander to get Sisco, Detroit should throw in something around the range of 20 million.

Gotta factor in the fact that Sisco is positionless with us. Then we'd take the money we wouldn't spend on Verlander and spend it on FA SP that we are terrible at, and would cost us a draft pick. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, phillyOs119 said:

He cleared revocable waivers, contracts matter!!!!  He wouldn't be available if any team was willing to take on his contract for free.

C'mon you know baseball. You know it's not just that simple. Nobody claimed him because they knew Detroit wouldn't just give him away.

 

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Gotta factor in the fact that Sisco is positionless with us. Then we'd take the money we wouldn't spend on Verlander and spend it on FA SP that we are terrible at, and would cost us a draft pick. 

Let's break this down, you are assuming Sisco won't catch for us.  Then you are assuming we can't pick a decent SP for 28 million per year and concluding that we should spend our

in a very inefficient way because of these assumptions.

[bpilktree]

I expect mighty to be an Orioles on Thursday.   I do not think the trade for him til Thursday evening. Miggy is pitching against the Twins so keeping him in Chicago for that start helps our team and then he can still pitch in Ubalfo,s spot on normal rest for us next week.

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

C'mon you know baseball. You know it's not just that simple. Nobody claimed him because they knew Detroit wouldn't just give him away.

 

It's not that simple, let's say the Orioles wanted him and were willing to risk taking on his salary. Then they should have claimed him, then they would have been able to negotiate a trade without competition from other teams!!!

Edit: Here is the rule...

• Once a player is claimed, his team faces three options. It can pull the player back and keep him, negotiate a trade with the claiming team or let the player go. In the last scenario, the claiming team takes full responsibility for the player's remaining salary. If the two sides decide to work out a trade, they have two days to do so.

• A team can pull a player back from waivers only once. So if a player is pulled back, but then placed on waivers a second time and claimed, his rights go to the team that is awarded the claim.

 

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Rojo13 said:

Wait. Are you saying the Tigers would trade Verlander for Cisco? You've got to be crazy. People thought an injured Britton should get 3 top 100 prospects and you think Verlander can be had for a guy like Cisco?

Well, we didn't get three top 100 prospects for Britton, now did we? And Britton doesn't cost $56 mm over the next two years.

[Can_of_corn]

38 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Two words... Francisco Pena. 

How does Buck get him on the 25 man?

 

[Can_of_corn]

38 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

He cleared revocable waivers, contracts matter!!!!  He wouldn't be available if any team was willing to take on his contract for free.

I think the Tigers would have pulled him back if he had been claimed.  They expect a return.