What has more trade value -- one year of Manny, or two years of Schoop?

[Frobby]

So, I’ve been thinking about this topic a bit more, and considering who else on the team has a high trade value.    Here are some thoughts.

Manny Machado: under control for one season, at a probable salary of $17 mm.    I figure a reasonable projection is 5 WAR, worth $40 mm, so excess value of $23 mm.

Jonathan Schoop: under control for two seasons, at a probable cost of $23 mm.    I’d project 6-7 WAR in that period, so call it $52 mm in value, $29 mm excess value.

Kevin Gausman: under control for 3 seasons, at a probable cost of $31 mm.   I’d project 9 WAR in that period, so value of $72 mm, excess value $41 mm.

Dylan Bundy: under control for 4 seasons, at a probable cost of $33 mm.   I’d project 12 WAR for him, so value of $96 mm, excess value of $59 mm.

Tim Beckham: under control for 3 seasons, at a probable cost of $19 mm.     I’d project 7 WAR for him, so value of $56 mm, excess value $37 mm.

Zach Britton: under control for one year, at a probable cost of $12 mm.    I figure he’s worth 2 WAR, so $16 mm in value, excess value $4 mm.

Brad Brach: under control for one year, probable salary $5 mm.   Worth 1.2 WAR, so value at $10 mm, excess value $5 mm.

Caleb Joseph: under control for three years, probable salary $10 mm.    Worth 3 WAR, so value $24 mm, excess value $14 mm.

Mychal Givens: under control for four years, probable salaries $15 mm.    Worth 5 WAR, so value of $40 mm, excess value $25 mm.

Trey Mancini: under control for five years, probable salaries $22 mm.   Worth 8 WAR, so value of $64 mm, excess value $42 mm.

I’m not going to speculate on players like Sisco and Hays.   So by excess value, you’d rank these:

Bundy $59 mm

Mancini $42 mm

Gausman $41 mm

Beckham $37 mm

Schoop $29 mm

Givens $25 mm

Machado $23 mm

Joseph $14 mm

Brach $5 mm

Britton $4 mm

Now, I’m not suggesting that this is the order in which they’d actually be valued in trade discussions.    The above doesn’t take into account the amount of risk involved with each player, and in reality, a high WAR spread over a short time period is seen as more valuable than WAR spread out over a longer period.     For that reason, there’s no way Mancini has the second highest trade value on this list, or that Manny is lower than Givens.     But, I do think it’s likely that Bundy and Gausman would have a higher trade value than Manny, and that Schoop might.

 

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, I’ve been thinking about this topic a bit more, and considering who else on the team has a high trade value.    Here are some thoughts.

Manny Machado: under control for one season, at a probable salary of $17 mm.    I figure a reasonable projection is 5 WAR, worth $40 mm, so excess value of $23 mm.

Jonathan Schoop: under control for two seasons, at a probable cost of $23 mm.    I’d project 6-7 WAR in that period, so call it $52 mm in value, $29 mm excess value.

Kevin Gausman: under control for 3 seasons, at a probable cost of $31 mm.   I’d project 9 WAR in that period, so value of $72 mm, excess value $41 mm.

Dylan Bundy: under control for 4 seasons, at a probable cost of $33 mm.   I’d project 12 WAR for him, so value of $96 mm, excess value of $59 mm.

Tim Beckham: under control for 3 seasons, at a probable cost of $19 mm.     I’d project 7 WAR for him, so value of $56 mm, excess value $37 mm.

Zach Britton: under control for one year, at a probable cost of $12 mm.    I figure he’s worth 2 WAR, so $16 mm in value, excess value $4 mm.

Brad Brach: under control for one year, probable salary $5 mm.   Worth 1.2 WAR, so value at $10 mm, excess value $5 mm.

Caleb Joseph: under control for three years, probable salary $10 mm.    Worth 3 WAR, so value $24 mm, excess value $14 mm.

Mychal Givens: under control for four years, probable salaries $15 mm.    Worth 5 WAR, so value of $40 mm, excess value $25 mm.

Trey Mancini: under control for five years, probable salaries $22 mm.   Worth 8 WAR, so value of $64 mm, excess value $42 mm.

I’m not going to speculate on players like Sisco and Hays.   So by excess value, you’d rank these:

Bundy $59 mm

Mancini $42 mm

Gausman $41 mm

Beckham $37 mm

Schoop $29 mm

Givens $25 mm

Machado $23 mm

Joseph $14 mm

Brach $5 mm

Britton $4 mm

Now, I’m not suggesting that this is the order in which they’d actually be valued in trade discussions.    The above doesn’t take into account the amount of risk involved with each player, and in reality, a high WAR spread over a short time period is seen as more valuable than WAR spread out over a longer period.     For that reason, there’s no way Mancini has the second highest trade value on this list, or that Manny is lower than Givens.     But, I do think it’s likely that Bundy and Gausman would have a higher trade value than Manny, and that Schoop might.

 

This is definitely a good start.  I'd rank them this way, taking impact, upside, and risk into consideration in addition to surplus value.

1. Bundy

2. Gausman

3. Schoop

4. Machado

5. Beckham

6. Mancini

7. Givens

8. Britton

9. Joseph

10. Brach

Hays would be behind Machado, but probably in front of Beckham and Mancini, definitely in front of Givens.

Sisco would be behind Beckham, probably behind Mancini

Mountcastle and Harvey would be behind Givens and in front of Britton I'd think, although some teams might be willing to trade a top 100 guy for Britton with the hopes he's 100%.

DJ Stewart, Cedric Mullins and DL Hall would likely be in front of Joseph and Brach, but behind Britton.

 

[Aristotelian]

6-7 WAR for Schoop is very optimistic IMO. He had a career year with the bat, but who knows if that will continue. He could continue to improve or he could be the next Chris Davis. He has a terrific arm but otherwise he is mediocre defensively. I would predict 4 WAR which would have him matching his previous career high. I would take one year of Manny over two years of Schoop if I am a contending team trying to win right now.

I do think trading Schoop coming off a career year is an interesting idea. I feel like Beckham would be a more natural 2B than SS/3B. That said, i think we should expect more for Manny. Even if he is a one year rental, he is that good.

[wildcard]

On 9/28/2017 at 10:42 AM, Frobby said:

If we are looking to a rebuilding strategy, I could argue that Schoop, not Manny, is our best trade chip.   What say you?

If the O's are rebuilding I see no reason to trade 26 year old Schoop.    Extend him.  He will have a more reasonable price than Manny.   By 2019  the O's will probably have Bundy, Gausman, Harvey, Akin and Castro in the rotation.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

If the O's are rebuilding I see no reason to trade 24 year old Schoop.    Extend him.  He will have a more reasonable price than Manny.   By 2019  the O's will probably have Bundy, Gausman, Harvey, Akin and Castro in the rotation.

I just wish that had pushed for a deal with Schoop before he signed away a portion of his future earnings.

 

[Frobby]

Just now, wildcard said:

If the O's are rebuilding I see no reason to trade 24 year old Schoop.    Extend him.  He will have a more reasonable price than Manny.   By 2019  the O's will probably have Bundy, Gausman, Harvey, Akin and Castro in the rotation.

Schoop is 26, not 24.    I’d be happy to extend him, but the purpose of this thread is just to discuss trade value, not to debate trading vs. extending.    

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I just wish that had pushed for a deal with Schoop before he signed away a portion of his future earnings.

 

Do you think the $4.9 mm he got will influence him that much?    It probably would have been more of a factor before last season.   

[Luke-OH]

16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

6-7 WAR for Schoop is very optimistic IMO. He had a career year with the bat, but who knows if that will continue. He could continue to improve or he could be the next Chris Davis. He has a terrific arm but otherwise he is mediocre defensively. I would predict 4 WAR which would have him matching his previous career high. I would take one year of Manny over two years of Schoop if I am a contending team trying to win right now.

I do think trading Schoop coming off a career year is an interesting idea. I feel like Beckham would be a more natural 2B than SS/3B. That said, i think we should expect more for Manny. Even if he is a one year rental, he is that good.

I agree you could argue Machado has more value than Schoop, but I'd argue that Schoop's extra year of control, his improvements in approach at the plate, and Manny's down year defensively (the down year at the plate was fluky and I think other teams will see that too) give Schoop an edge.

And before someone gets upset, I'm not saying Manny was bad or average defensively, just that it was a step back from the heights of his previous success.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Schoop is 26, not 24.    I’d be happy to extend him, but the purpose of this thread is just to discuss trade value, not to debate trading vs. extending.    

This is part of the discussion.  Don't trade him.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Do you think the $4.9 mm he got will influence him that much?    It probably would have been more of a factor before last season.   

Do I think that the 4.9 will influence him that much?

No.

Do I think that they could have reached some very favorable terms if they had pushed before he signed that deal? 

Yes.

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do I think that the 4.9 will influence him that much?

No.

Do I think that they could have reached some very favorable terms if they had pushed before he signed that deal? 

Yes.

Agreed, though obviously it would have entailed some risk (the deal was made in April 2016 when a Schoop essentially had 1.5 years of experience under his belt).     Generally, I think the O’s have been wrong not to lock up some players during their pre-arb years.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Hays would be behind Machado, but probably in front of Beckham and Mancini, definitely in front of Givens.

I just want to see Hays do well as a major leaguer before making too many assumptions about him.    It’s so exciting to have a top prospect come out of nowhere (relatively speaking) that I find myself protecting my psyche against possible disappointment.   He did look rather green to me against major league pitching, which shouldn’t be that surprising, so I’m waiting for him to show he can adjust.  

[Luke-OH]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I just want to see Hays do well as a major leaguer before making too many assumptions about him.    It’s so exciting to have a top prospect come out of nowhere (relatively speaking) that I find myself protecting my psyche against possible disappointment.   He did look rather green to me against major league pitching, which shouldn’t be that surprising, so I’m waiting for him to show he can adjust.  

I'm not making assumptions about him at all.  I'm just talking trade value.  He's a top 50 prospect, I'm valuing him as such.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I'm not making assumptions about him at all.  I'm just talking trade value.  He's a top 50 prospect, I'm valuing him as such.

Fair enough, but how does one determine the trade value of a top 50 prospect compared to a guy who was never in the top 50 but finished 3rd in the ROY voting?   Now, I will say, if I could only keep one, it would be Hays, mainly because he’s a better defender and can play the tougher OF positions. I’m not sure who will be the better hitter in the long run.  

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Fair enough, but how does one determine the trade value of a top 50 prospect compared to a guy who was never in the top 50 but finished 3rd in the ROY voting?   Now, I will say, if I could only keep one, it would be Hays, mainly because he’s a better defender and can play the tougher OF positions. I’m not sure who will be the better hitter in the long run.  

I think would that guy get a top 50 prospect in return if the Orioles looked to trade him.  I'd say no, that may not be fair to Mancini, but I think that's how other teams value Mancini at this point.