How many Rule 5 eligible players will the O's protect?

[Jammer7]

We seem to agree on Harvey and Wynns. Hess, I can see being taken easily and stashed in someon’s pen. He’s a hard thrower with better stuff in the pen. I think the LHP Gonzalez has a shot, because he is a lefty with good stuff, but limited experience to Frederick. Gonzalez may just be able to hang in someone’s pen. Those would be my four.

Some think Wilkerson, Means and Long. Wilkerson cannot play SS well, but I like his overall offensive game as a bench guy. I can see a case for him, and he’s on the bubble for me. The resigning of Sardiñas may impact the chances of him being on the 40. Means, other than being LH and throwing strikes, tell me why would we want to protect him? Long seems amazingly effective at times, but the stuff is a bit short for a reliever. Does he have the stamina to be a starter? Would any of these three be taken and stashed on a ML roster? Someone sell me on Means and Long. I just don’t see it.

Dosch is another guy who is interesting, but falls short to me. Philly, and others, summed up why. Rifaela is another guy that falls far short, to me, for all of the reasons stated. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Mancini had a 826 OPS on the road in AAA.  Harbor Park is a terrible place to hit.  Dosch didn't hit well anywhere once he got to AAA.

First of all, nobody is suggesting that Dosch is nearly as good a hitter as Mancini, or as good a prospect.    However, I don’t like the logic of your post.     It suggests that we should prefer a player who had big splits between Harbor Park and the road, over a player who had small splits between the two.    I don’t see why I should have a preference.    It’s still likely that Harbor Park impacted Dosch’s home stats just as much Mancini’s, evidenced for example by the fact that Dosch hit only one HR at home, but 7 on the road.

I do not think it’s necessary to protect Dosch, but I agree with phillyOs119 that he probably wouldn’t embarrass himself offensively if he got called up for a stint in the majors.   

[Legend_Of_Joey]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't see anything about Dosch that says he is likely to be claimed.  He didn't hit or field well enough last year to make me think he could stay in the majors all year.

The rest of your post pretty much agrees with what I wrote.   So I agree.

That's why he wasn't a lock. I don't think he would get claimed, but you never know who people might take a glance at.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

First of all, nobody is suggesting that Dosch is nearly as good a hitter as Mancini, or as good a prospect.    However, I don’t like the logic of your post.     It suggests that we should prefer a player who had big splits between Harbor Park and the road, over a player who had small splits between the two.    I don’t see why I should have a preference.    It’s still likely that Harbor Park impacted Dosch’s home stats just as much Mancini’s, evidenced for example by the fact that Dosch hit only one HR at home, but 7 on the road.

I do not think it’s necessary to protect Dosch, but I agree with phillyOs119 that he probably wouldn’t embarrass himself offensively if he got called up for a stint in the majors.   

I didn't really care how big the split was.   Ir would appear that looking at how a player hits on the road in the International League is a better indicator of what kind of a hitter he is than looking at how he does in Harbor Park.   There may be some exceptions  but I would think they are rare.

That is the real logic behind it and if you don't like it then you need to look at how more hitter do when playing for the Tides.

[weams]

5 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

We seem to agree on Harvey and Wynns. Hess, I can see being taken easily and stashed in someon’s pen. He’s a hard thrower with better stuff in the pen. I think the LHP Gonzalez has a shot, because he is a lefty with good stuff, but limited experience to Frederick. Gonzalez may just be able to hang in someone’s pen. Those would be my four.

Some think Wilkerson, Means and Long. Wilkerson cannot play SS well, but I like his overall offensive game as a bench guy. I can see a case for him, and he’s on the bubble for me. The resigning of Sardiñas may impact the chances of him being on the 40. Means, other than being LH and throwing strikes, tell me why would we want to protect him? Long seems amazingly effective at times, but the stuff is a bit short for a reliever. Does he have the stamina to be a starter? Would any of these three be taken and stashed on a ML roster? Someone sell me on Means and Long. I just don’t see it.

Dosch is another guy who is interesting, but falls short to me. Philly, and others, summed up why. Rifaela is another guy that falls far short, to me, for all of the reasons stated. 

I agree with most of this. I do not think Gonzalez could stay in the majors for anyone. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

57 minutes ago, weams said:

I agree with most of this. I do not think Gonzalez could stay in the majors for anyone. 

Not even long enough only to fulfill the Rule 5 pick and then be sent down?

[weams]

Just now, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Not even long enough only to fulfill the Rule 5 pick and then be sent down?

I would not think so. It has to be at the start of the season. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

36 minutes ago, weams said:

I would not think so. It has to be at the start of the season. 

Pick him, put him in Spring Training and go from there? He might have a good upside to him. Just trying to exhaust all angles. He's not "can't miss" as Harvey though.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Pick him, put him in Spring Training and go from there? He might have a good upside to him. Just trying to exhaust all angles. He's not "can't miss" as Harvey though.

I'd think we could find someone with higher upside ourselves to take the 40 man roster spot. 

[weams]

Tony always said, if they are reliving in the minors, not closing, and they are not 20, they are not prospects.

[SteveA]

On 10/23/2017 at 10:01 AM, wildcard said:

I always have a problem with the answer to this question.   I overestimate.   So I  want to hear from you.

Here are some candidates:

1) Hunter Harvey - No brainer

2) David  Hess - O's are desperate for starters and he was one of their best at AA.

3) Lucas Long - Swingman at Bowie has potential to be the same in the majors.

4) Austin Wynns - Pena just opted for minor league free agency making Wynns the third  catcher in the O's organization if Castillo opts out

5) Steve Wilkerson - Utility man doing well in the  AZ fall league.

6) Luis Gonzalez  - This guy was not even on my radar.  But in the AZ league he is pitching well and he is a lefty reliever with good stuff who had a good year at Frederick.   He could get claimed.

7) John Means - Lefty starter at Bowie last year.   Lefty starters are hard to come by.

Two guys that I have had on my list but you guys have talked me out of are:

Matt Wotherspoon - Who was effective at AAA last year but is not a hard throwing reliever. Acquired with international slot money.

Ademar Rifaela -  MVP of the Carolina League.  But you are telling me that he would never last a whole year in the majors if picked. 

Here is what Steve Melewski has to say about it.  http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/10/os-list-of-rule-5-eligible-players-includes-pitcher-pat-connaughton.html

So right now I am at 7.  

What do you think?

 

 

How does it work with Connaughton?   If we don't protect him, and a team takes him in the Rule 5 draft, and he continues to not play baseball, does the requirement to be on the roster for the new team just roll over into 2019?

[Legend_Of_Joey]

5 minutes ago, weams said:

I'd think we could find someone with higher upside ourselves to take the 40 man roster spot. 

Got it, thanks. 

[weams]

3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

How does it work with Connaughton?   If we don't protect him, and a team takes him in the Rule 5 draft, and he continues to not play baseball, does the requirement to be on the roster for the new team just roll over into 2019?

I do not think restricted list works. I think on DL. So I guess we would get him back. My thought. 

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Pick him, put him in Spring Training and go from there? He might have a good upside to him. Just trying to exhaust all angles. He's not "can't miss" as Harvey though.

My take on Gonzalez is that he commands his fastball/slider combo well. He's old for his level, so the numbers don't mean much.  I don't know if his stuff is good enough to be worth protecting. 

I think you take a guy like Means and put him in the bullpen in short stinits.  You'll get the same mid-90's velocity from the LH side and a breaking ball that misses bats (curveball in his case), plus a third pitch (change-up), and the ability to be a long man in the pen too.

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

My take on Gonzalez is that he commands his fastball/slider combo well. He's old for his level, so the numbers don't mean much.  I don't know if his stuff is good enough to be worth protecting. 

I think you take a guy like Means and put him in the bullpen in short stinits.  You'll get the same mid-90's velocity from the LH side and a breaking ball that misses bats (curveball in his case), plus a third pitch (change-up), and the ability to be a long man in the pen too.

Thanks. I did not know Means had that velo, even in short stints.