Will Mark Trumbo Be Back With Orioles In 2018?

[El Gordo]

19 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Maybe if a team has a midseason injury to a 1B. I dont think Duquette will shop Trumbo at winter meetings because I dont think a team will ask for him. If Trumbo is traded, that will be great. 

Take a look around I think there are a lot of teams that could use Trumbo at 1B for the right price.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

12 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

Now you know Buck won't bench one of his boys. I think Buck had a big hand in the Trumbo deal. Just like he did in the CD deal. I like Buck. But these kinds of deals need to stop. DD, Buck and Angelos have screwed the O's future to hell and back. IMO 

I figured when Trumbo was acquired the O's were not going to resign CD.  Trumbo looked looked to be his replacement.  After CD's 2014 season, I wanted no part of a long term deal even coming off his 2015 season. 

Also was any other team close to signing CD, the 7 year contract is on the way to sinking this franchise.  Why did the front office bid against itself and not save that money for Manny.  

Hoping for the best in 2018 because I have no idea what this team looks like in 2019 and beyond.  

 

[Luke-OH]

Just a little Trumbo note.  I was looking at some of his stats, trying to figure out what caused his catastrophic 2017.

BABIP - identical

BB and K rates - almost identical

ISO (good indicator of power) - huge drop

The drop in batting average, OBP, and SLG is entirely due to lack of home runs, he put a similar % of balls in play and he had the same batting average on those balls that fielders had a chance at. Similar rate of doubles as well.  Just less home runs.

So now we look into what is causing the lack of home runs. 

HR/FB rate - dropped by about 11%

Hard hit ball - dropped by about 9%

Avg exit velocty - dropped almost 5 mph

Avg distance - dropped about 35ft

Pull rate - down about 4%

It looks like a simple case of power decline, which is scary if someone is hoping for a bounce back or trying to attribute the drop off to not playing the field as much.  It looks like a slower, less powerful bat.  Maybe offseason conditioning can get it back, but it's not something one should bet on.  This doesn't look like a random down season, hopefully I'm wrong.

[bobmc]

9 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Just a little Trumbo note.  I was looking at some of his stats, trying to figure out what caused his catastrophic 2017.

BABIP - identical

BB and K rates - almost identical

ISO (good indicator of power) - huge drop

The drop in batting average, OBP, and SLG is entirely due to lack of home runs, he put a similar % of balls in play and he had the same batting average on those balls that fielders had a chance at. Similar rate of doubles as well.  Just less home runs.

So now we look into what is causing the lack of home runs. 

HR/FB rate - dropped by about 11%

Hard hit ball - dropped by about 9%

Avg exit velocty - dropped almost 5 mph

Avg distance - dropped about 35ft

Pull rate - down about 4%

It looks like a simple case of power decline, which is scary if someone is hoping for a bounce back or trying to attribute the drop off to not playing the field as much.  It looks like a slower, less powerful bat.  Maybe offseason conditioning can get it back, but it's not something one should bet on.  This doesn't look like a random down season, hopefully I'm wrong.

Well done!  These new analytics are really cool and telling.

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, bobmc said:

Well done!  These new analytics are really cool and telling.

It's rarely that easy to pinpoint the cause of someone's decline, usually there is a lot of noisy data.  This is about as clear as I've seen, the only thing I'm not really sure about is whether he could try and pull the ball more for better results (his two best seasons happen to be the two seasons when he was most pull happy).  There is definitely more going on though, pulling the ball a bit less doesn't explain these huge drops in exit velocity and batted ball distance.

[VaBird1]

I believe that he talked about changing his swing before the 2016 season (I believe he changed to have a more dramatic uppercut -- but could be remembering incorrectly).  I wonder if as you lose power due to aging that kind of swing leads to fewer balls getting barreled up.

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, VaBird1 said:

I believe that he talked about changing his swing before the 2016 season (I believe he changed to have a more dramatic uppercut -- but could be remembering incorrectly).  I wonder if as you lose power due to aging that kind of swing leads to fewer balls getting barreled up.

Very possible, the trouble is that Trumbo needs the home runs to be valuable. His career history suggests that without big HR totals, he's a slightly above average hitter, which doesn't profile at DH or as an average 1B or a terrible COF.

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Just a little Trumbo note.  I was looking at some of his stats, trying to figure out what caused his catastrophic 2017.

BABIP - identical

BB and K rates - almost identical

ISO (good indicator of power) - huge drop

The drop in batting average, OBP, and SLG is entirely due to lack of home runs, he put a similar % of balls in play and he had the same batting average on those balls that fielders had a chance at. Similar rate of doubles as well.  Just less home runs.

So now we look into what is causing the lack of home runs. 

HR/FB rate - dropped by about 11%

Hard hit ball - dropped by about 9%

Avg exit velocty - dropped almost 5 mph

Avg distance - dropped about 35ft

Pull rate - down about 4%

It looks like a simple case of power decline, which is scary if someone is hoping for a bounce back or trying to attribute the drop off to not playing the field as much.  It looks like a slower, less powerful bat.  Maybe offseason conditioning can get it back, but it's not something one should bet on.  This doesn't look like a random down season, hopefully I'm wrong.

I think there was an analysis in fangraphs or some other site a while back very similar to what you said here.